Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Well ECM is just about complete for tonight and this low pressure is looking like been a short lived spell with high pressure building quickly again next week

Starts to turn unsettled

Sunday could see a spell of heavy rain in the areas in desperate need

High pressure starts to rebuild

By wednesday almost of the UK is back to settled weather once more

Thursday see's high pressure in charge once more

GFS seems to be on its own tonight for the possible Gales in Scotland early next week

Edited March 12, 2012 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

Looking at the general picture i would say the models have backed away from the quick return to high pressure that they were showing a couple of days ago. In the longer term heights are still expected to rise from the south but its looking like the end of next week when HP will push northwards significantly. The first part of next week will see a broad run of west/southwesterly winds brought on by low pressure tracking to the north of the UK. After the weekends shalow low passes through the southern half of the UK will see pressure rise enough to restrict any rain to just small amounts. Further north it will be a different story with the chance of some heavy rain and strong winds as shown by the GFS for Monday/Tuesday.

[Nigel Langton]

Some cracking temperatures with that high

Could get into the low 20s as that is the first day of the clocks going forward so with an extra 1 hour's day light there would be every chance.

[Nigel Langton]

If the clocks go forward 1 hr, how do you get and extra 1 hr of daylight. it must be darker later in the morning, and an increase in sunlight hours would be 2-3 minutes per day, same as any other as we head towards summer solstice

[PolarWarsaw]

I feel a bit out of place surrounded by you 'severe weather experts' so please forgive me for the naivety of my knowledge that im going to display in this post but.. ever since I went to Florida around 5 & 6 years ago i've had a bit of a love for severe weather, tornadoes, tornado seasons and infact pretty much anything 'weather usa'. I remember every day sitting and watching Orlando's 'Local on the 8's' go round in circles and circles for hours and being equally as hooked by every single repeat.

I frequently watch 'Storm watch' 'Weather in 60 seconds' etc on Weather.com and actually have a flick through the site most if not everyday. Im just wondering if you lot can push me in the right direction as to where I can find live forecasts daily, live streams on tornado days, live news forecasts like you see at the beginning of 'Storm Chasers' (of which I am rather sadly addicted and today acquired seasons 1-5 on dvd) etc. Just kind of everything thats going to get me as close to the action as possible.

Lastly, where do I view the maps and warning zone maps etc that have been posted in previous posts my members in this thread.

Any help will be greatly appreciated.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ECMWF looks 'settled' for southern areas after T+144 but with a broad scoop of tropical maritime air off the Atlantic it would probably be pretty grey and drizzly (that sort of setup can be grey and drizzly even in summer, as I recall from the grey drizzly last week of August 2008 in Norwich). In general the anticyclonic weather looks like breaking down at the end of the week with some rain belts heading eastwards across the country associated with a weak area of low pressure, and we could see some pretty low maxima underneath the frontal zone (the GFS 12Z suggested maxima of 3-5C in parts of northern England).

However, it doesn't look as if there will be much rain in south-eastern areas, and after next weekend we will probably see high pressure pushing back up from the south. It remains to be seen whether it will push far north enough to allow a return of the southerly type, as shown in the GFS 18Z FI and the ECMWF T+240 chart, but it's worth watching as it could give many of us a renewed spell of warm sunshine if it comes off.

[Spurry]

At this time of year my preference is for HP to build over the country so that we can get some warm sunshine , however the position of this current HP is only bringing grey gloom to these parts, it's quite frustrating to hear that wednesday could be up to 20c, we'll be lucky to get 13c here in the North west

Edited March 12, 2012 by Spurry

[J10]

A huge difference in terms of sunshine amounts between GFS and UKMO in forthcoming days, GFS goes for sunny weather and UKMO cloudy weather, unfortunately I suspect UKMO is right.

[johnholmes]

Winter must have departed, nothing since prior to midnight!

Anyway after the hiccup over the weekend all the links suggest back to high pressure dominated with the 500mb anomaly charts showing a marked upper trough well west in the Atlantic and an upper ridge east possibly SE of the UK.

The next few days for much of England and Wales are the problem of the last 2-3 days, when/if and where will the low cloud lift to allow the sun out.

The last satt picc suggested its more widespread than yesterday morning.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is still on track to rebuild high pressure by mid next week, before that those hoping for plently of rain in the south and east well by this mornings GFS run only Saturday looks like bringing some rain sunday looks like been pretty dry for most away from the west.

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

ECM

After an unettled spell ECM also builds the high pressure from mid week

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

UKMO

Unsettled for its run but you can see the high pressure is close by with 1020mb line just over the south west

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Edited March 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[shedhead]

Some fantastic looking charts for heat around at the moment if this was Summer, but unfortunately it's not; Iets just hope we don't end up exhausing all the good synoptics in March and April once again this year.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z continues to build high pressure to our east from mid next week and this lasts for most of March meaning rain fall is going to been very low still for the areas in desperate need

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[johnholmes]

On a shorter time scale-will the cloud sheet be more likely to break tomorrow?

The latest visual sat picc showing where the cloud breaks are, the top rh chart are the 950mb winds at 06z this morning with the bottom rh chart showing the prediction for 12z tomorrow?

ignore the far right chart

I find this type of forecasting is fascinating and its the type of problem that will be exercising Exeter this afternoon, although they will have much more information, also a look at the 12z radio sonde ascents is needed, and they of course will have the 12z run of fine mesh output from their various own models to help.

Based on what I've shown in the picc above I would say that away from exposed coasts/hills with the drift shown on the 950mb charts then a better prospect than today for most parts of inland England and Wales.

We shall see this time tomorrow if this idea is about right or way off the mark?

Edited March 13, 2012 by johnholmes

[Cheese Rice]

I'm sure the prospect of snow seems a million miles away what with the current weather but the low projected for Saturday/Sunday would bring snowfall on its northern flank.

[KTtom]

Good point CR. Just flicking through the latest Fax charts and thought to myself some people going to get quite a surprise this weekend...

[Zenarcher]

Wednesday and Thursday Summary

Across Ireland and Scotland it will be mainly cloudy with mist and showers likely to be scattered around those areas. For Wales and England they will continue to see settled weather and sunshine is still likely. The wind across the UK will be breezy but across the West coast of Ireland and Scotland gale force winds are likely.

Friday to Sunday Summary

As low pressure is looking very likely to move away from the UK even in the South a period of very changeable weather is likely to finish off the week. For England, Wales and Southern Ireland it is looking to turn cloudy with plenty of showers and mist around also a band of heavy rain may sweep across these parts as a weak low pressure system moves in and there is a chance some wintry weather may come off this low. Later on it looks to turn more settled becoming sunny and dry again after a very short unsettled spell. The wind will be a mixture of light and breezy but gales across Eastern parts are likely when this low moves in, For Scotland and Northern Ireland starting off cloudy with showers and mist around eventually this will clear away and bring in sunnier weather something the North has missed out on recently. A very strong breeze to start with turning to light winds or breezy later.

After the weekend the 3 main models show a trend of high pressure building over Southern parts meanwhile low pressure to the North. Something we've had pretty much all winter.

Edited March 13, 2012 by weathermaster

[Summer Sun]

High pressure dominates from Tuesday right through to the last few days of March at least best make the most of this weekend's rain in the drought areas I think.

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Edited March 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Alex]

The model output seems to of turned into a drought/rain watch. I don't think there's much to worry about, I bet in a few months - we will prob have a wet summer and somewhere will of flooded and everyone will of forgotten about hosepipe bans etc.

Anyways the models are very firm again this evening with only minor details changing. Basically March is best summed up this evening by a changeable north and semi settled south with some unsettled blips ie this weekend.

[Robbie Garrett]

Sorry to once again jump on the CFS bandwagon, but it seems very consistent with lower heights over the UK and some much needed precipitation from early April till early July. They key is what causes this change?? because change must happen, high pressure has been in much control since at least early January when we had those December-January classic windstorms. (lack of rain though) hinting at High pressure being very influential.

Maybe someone with more brains than me on here, can explain as to how we go from Current Situation to monsoon April/May/June!!

But what's most intriguing is it wants to inject colder air from Russia towards the UK again!!

Edited March 13, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Summer Sun]

After an usettled weekend for some Monday see's the next area of high pressure building in tomorrow UKMO should have it over all of the UK

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Edited March 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Methuselah]

Can't say that I'm too bothersd about what the CFS (or any other model) has to say about July, given their collective lack of success, so far. And, anyhoo,it's now approaching mid-March??

[shedhead]

Can't say that I'm too bothersd about what the CFS (or any other model) has to say about July, given their collective lack of success, so far. And, anyhoo,it's now approaching mid-March??

In my opinion CFS has been nothing like as inaccurate as it's often portrayed in here. They pretty much nailed every month this Winter, not just for the UK but also across Scandinavia as a

whole, so I will certainly not be dismissive of what they go for this Summer.

[Summer Sun]

After an unsettled weekend ECM shows high pressure to begins to dominated once again

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

[shotski]

:lazy: :lazy: :lazy:

[Osbourne One-Nil]

How about looking at the weekend then Gavin?