Model Output Discussion - 15th April Onwards

[peterf]

y

Maybe, but We are massively down (around 200% of normal sales) and the billas are coming in all the time.

My hours are going to be cut at the most busy time of the year usually and as I only earn around £850 a month, to have my hours and wages cut, is a disaster for me.

Not to mention the fact that if we don't have a good season, our business won't have enough money to last the winter period.

Plus plant losses due to very heavy frosts at this time of the year, is a very serious thing considering the above!

We're already 3 weeks into a season that only lasts 8-9 weeksand I'm really worried about my job.

If the weather doesn't improve soon, it shall be a disaster!

off topic i know an delete as appropiate mods.

this post is misleading to say the least.none of my friends (nursery growers or farmers) share your concerns and it's a damn sight colder up here to boot.

it's how it has been for hundreds of years simple as.we adapt and move on.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

[stewfox]

y

Maybe, but We are massively down (around 200% of normal sales) and the billas are coming in all the time.

My hours are going to be cut at the most busy time of the year usually and as I only earn around £850 a month, to have my hours and wages cut, is a disaster for me.

Not to mention the fact that if we don't have a good season, our business won't have enough money to last the winter period.

Plus plant losses due to very heavy frosts at this time of the year, is a very serious thing considering the above!

We're already 3 weeks into a season that only lasts 8-9 weeksand I'm really worried about my job.

If the weather doesn't improve soon, it shall be a disaster!

The only thing I can see that relates to any model discussion is '850' ????

[Osbourne One-Nil]

And there we leave it and everyone back on topic. I will have order.

[Robbie Garrett]

Regarding wintry potential, scattered wintry showers are likely to come onshore across E Scotland and NE England on Saturday morning, but they look set to be light and well-scattered, so snow mostly confined to high ground, though if any low-lying areas catch one or two heavier showers there may be sleet/wet snow down to low levels. Sunday looks set to have more extensive shower activity under the weak ridge, but snow confined to northern hills by then IMHO as the cold airmass relents a touch. Frost certainly looks set to be widespread to the north of the Midlands on Friday and Saturday nights, with Saturday night likely to produce a ground frost across much of the south.

There is indeed a lot of uncertainty next week over the track of the southerly tracking lows- wet and cloudy but rather less cold, perhaps even warm in the south on occasion, looks a likely bet for next week. The Bank Holiday Monday is looking very likely to be a wet one for most of us.

The ECMWF ensemble mean is implying that the lows will track north-eastwards at intervals during next week allowing a ridge of high pressure to move in at the end of next week, though it is still somewhat open to change.

Still pretty confident that this year will perform, seeing as there's a trough about and the azores is pretty much sleeping. if the trough moves to the west, it's game on for Summer 2012. But we might have to wait for it a bit.

In terms of longer term forecasting, CFS pretty much indicating high pressure building once again later on in May/June (very mixed as to when it happens) but when it does it is likely to slip into western Europe, providing quite a thundery atmosphere. The following evolution shows this result.

0-4*C uppers in June as the high pressure slips back west...

End of June, early July best sort of signs for a start of Summer personally.

Edited May 3, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Polar Maritime]

Yes apart fron June showing slighty above average, It's looking like pretty average or just below up to now.

Edited May 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[damianslaw]

Its a notably cold outlook for the time of year as we cold uppers descend down from the north. Saturday night looks jolly cold for many inland parts, widespread air frost for many with -4, -5 degrees possible in sheltered northern parts which will certainly cause damage to tender spring plants and flowers. Maxima will struggle to reach double figures in many places. Scotland likely to see some wintry showers down to low levels around 200m quite easily with maxima in the NE struggling to reach 6 or 7 degrees.

Bank Holiday Monday remains a bit uncertain. Models are showing the development of a shortwave feature to the SW which looks like developing into a closed upper low pressure cell bringing further rain to southern/central parts and a cold day as it engages the cold air. Its one to keep watching.

Next week on the whole looks unsettled with low pressure moving into the country perhaps drawing in some warmer air to the SE at times but also lots more rain and remaining chilly in the north and heights remain stubbornly strong to the NW.

[johnholmes]

y

Maybe, but We are massively down (around 200% of normal sales) and the billas are coming in all the time.

My hours are going to be cut at the most busy time of the year usually and as I only earn around £850 a month, to have my hours and wages cut, is a disaster for me.

Not to mention the fact that if we don't have a good season, our business won't have enough money to last the winter period.

Plus plant losses due to very heavy frosts at this time of the year, is a very serious thing considering the above!

We're already 3 weeks into a season that only lasts 8-9 weeksand I'm really worried about my job.

If the weather doesn't improve soon, it shall be a disaster!

Apologies to the team but I have tried to send a pm to CH but this was refused so I would like to post this if I may?

hi

I am really sorry if my post seemed a dig at you and your job. I did not mean it as such. I am surprised though if your bosses were not aware of the probable weather over the last couple of weeks and the likely pattern for the next two weeks. Neither would suggest that temperatures were likely to be anything other than at or below, possibly at times well below normal.

Like I said at the start I really did not mean to cause offence in your line of work.

regards

John

[Cheese Rice]

If the first half of May is a prelude of things to come then we could be looking at a record breaking cool May.

Winds coming from a N/NE quadrant for the foreseeable future with large amounts of cloud keeping temperatures suppressed, struggling to reach double figures while northern areas likely to be stuck in single digits under large amounts of cloud. The northerly should bring some much needed sunshine, night time frosts likely though with temperatures in the cities dropping sub-zero. After that slack NE winds and rather bengin weather.

If the mid latitude high positions itself favorably we could tap into something warm mind month then again we could also see a northerly.

[Robbie Garrett]

GFS hinting at a high pressure progressively moving over the UK, and I hope over mainland Europe, but that's if you want some 15*C 850hpa over you (30*C+) if it moves to far east, a continuation of -10/-15*C 850hpa air throughout May, may well be likely. Depending on the positioning of the trough. Not exactly a major pattern change, but more or less pretty much average, sometimes a little below average.

[SP1986]

I think way too much is being made of these frosts. Ignore the GFS temperature predictions and go with the Met-office ones, they're probably more reliable. Besides if -6C occurs, which I think it won't, it will occur almost exclusively in frost hollows, and I think farmers would know better than to grow crops in well know frost hollow areas.

Frosts yes, but for most places barely below -1C and even then only inland areas and frost hollow getting any kind of frost.

I think what happens with the GFS grid is it gets a prediction; this might be for anything including rainfall, or CAPE and dewpoint etc, and it gets signal for it, and exaggerates the area that it will cover. I think it's to do with the degree of accuracy.. so people might look and go; we can expect widespread damage to crops etc, but in reality, come the time, it will only represent a small area. Not an issue at all I suspect.

[Aaron]

The Met Office temperature forecasts on cold clear nights are almost always wrong for here because they usually end up colder.

[Polar Maritime]

The Met Office temperature forecasts on cold clear nights are almost always wrong for here because they usually end up colder.

Yes i agree Aaron, same for my location to.

For towns and city's they seem to be pretty accurate, but for rural locations they seem pretty off the mark more often than not. As you say especialy for cold spells.

Edited May 3, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Avain]

How soon could this bit of news start to have an effect on the models then?

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77828

[Paul]

Latest look at the models and forecast for the week ahead from Michael Fish

[johnholmes]

Looking at the models through T=96-144 and they still do not really agree on how to deal with the depression predicted through that time. GFS has deepened it on todays' 00z from its idea yesterday on the 00/06z but keeps it mostly west of the UK with the other two taking it NE but with differing ideas on its depth.

yet again where my cursor was has governed how my post is show-italics this time?

If we look at the Fax charts to T+120 it seems no less confusing as to what is actually going to happen!

Edited May 4, 2012 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

Yes apart fron June showing slighty above average, It's looking like pretty average or just below up to now.

Don't go by that one its been discontinued in June the V2 version is better

http://www.cpc.ncep....2seasonal.shtml

Matt Hugo has tweeted this, this morning regarding the EC 32 day update this morning

Latest EC 32 day has good continuation with a cool/unsettled weather type overall for most of May, before potential higher pressure late May

Edited May 4, 2012 by Gavin D

[MP-R]

So the GFS this morning can be largely summed up by 'unsettled and mostly cool reliable timeframe and settles, often warm FI'. Looks like after today things will clear up, with daytime temperatures up for many compared to late but clearing skies leading to very chilly nights with lows readily between 2C and -2C before a shortwave to the southwest brings a washout Bank Holiday Monday, just like the last one lol.

[shedhead]

The block to our north still looks pretty resilient as we move toward mid month, but LP developing around the Azores could well start to introduce much warmer weather across the south. This may not be good news for central and northern areas for a time, with more in the way of rain developing, but I think eventually the warmer, more settled conditions should spread north to all parts of the country before months end.

Edited May 4, 2012 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

So the GFS this morning can be largely summed up by 'unsettled and mostly cool reliable timeframe and settles, often warm FI'. Looks like after today things will clear up, with daytime temperatures up for many compared to late but clearing skies leading to very chilly nights with lows readily between 2C and -2C before a shortwave to the southwest brings a washout Bank Holiday Monday, just like the last one lol.

I am attempting to insert the NOAA definition but it will post it for some b reason

Edited May 4, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Shortwave

Also known as Shortwave Trough; a disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it. If other conditions are favorable, the upward motion can contribute to thunderstorm development ahead of a shortwave.

quite why that caused this forum so much trouble I have no idea

all I tried to do was copy the definition from the NOAA web site-and then got all kinds of error messages-still its there now.

I do think the term 'short wave' is sometimes used too freely.

Edited May 4, 2012 by johnholmes

[SP1986]

06z reverts back to an entire run of cool, northeasterly driven weather, somewhat different to previous model outputs in that the 6z disregards the chance of warmer weather; however you have to say perhaps the 6z is more likely, for two main reasons;

i) The operational before this one hinted at warmer weather, however it was always a massive outlier at some point along the run with most ensembles going for average or just below.

ii) The warm scenarios nearly always resided in the unreliable timeframe, sometimes even coming into pre 180 but then disappearing by the next run.

As it stands I cannot foresee a pattern change from the one that has showed it's hand from April onwards, and I cannot think any warm, settled spells are likely to come to fruition, at least for the next two weeks perhaps.

So as it stands a cool, unsettled northeasterly spell with plenty of wet and windy spells I suggest, and also plenty of night frosts. If these conditions continue, aside for delivering a below average May, by some margin, it may well also deliver some unheard of air frost in some places into June, which would be interesting.

[phil nw.]

Cool for the next week and unsettled for sure Stephen but the entire 006z run?-i don`t see it that way.

Looking at the Gefs graph for the 006z we can see the mean line warming to at least average later next week after the cold first few days

as you can see later on this op. is considerably colder than the mean.

Continuing signs as in previous 00z outputs of rising pressure towards the end of next week.

which is much in line with the mean 00z outputs showing building heights in Europe and near the UK-the trough being eroded and moving east.

Based on all recent outputs we should see some warming up and drier conditions,especially further south though of course subtle changes to the placement of the surface features still likely at that range.

However something a little different before midmonth-for the better?let`s hope so because i think many of us in the soggy south and midlands,especially want some sun now -well i do for one anyway.

[johnholmes]

Cool for the next week and unsettled for sure Stephen but the entire 006z run?-i don`t see it that way.

Based on all recent outputs we should see some warming up and drier conditions,especially further south though of course subtle changes to the placement of the surface features still likely at that range.

However something a little different before midmonth-for the better?let`s hope so because i think many of us in the soggy south and midlands,especially want some sun now -well i do for one anyway.

yes I would agree with general idea there Phil-there are signs of a possible change

[AWD]

GFS shows a wet Bank Holiday Monday, especially so in the West.

Before things look to settle down, especially so in the South with Higher Pressure encroaching.

Tonights run makes this a rather short lived settled spell though with more Low Pressure coming in to the North West by next weekend.

And this continues through FI, with wet weather becoming common again across most of the UK.

Not the best run in terms of warmer and settled weather tonight, but it does still show a respite towards the end of next week with some welcome warmer and drier weather, especially to the South.

Best see where FI sits in the Ensembles to see its level of credibility.

Edited May 4, 2012 by Active Weather Dude