Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[Flash Elvis]

serious hail just a minute ago - wonderful - best hail I've seen in this region for years

What is your location?

[syncmaster]

did have lightning every minute - cloud to cloud - but wonderful stereo rolls of thunder

seems to have abated now though

What is your location please !!!!!!

[Buckster]

What is your location please !!!!!!

see my previous post Chelmsford, Essex

[in the vale]

Expect nothing to happen Jane. That way you won't be disappointed. The usual areas will get it all...yet again...us in the west will miss out...yet again.

And they say the British weather is unpredictable? What a joke! When it comes to thundery weather...it is all too predictable which areas get clobbered, and which ones are left wondering what all the fuss was about.

There were a couple of CGs and thunder over the Clwydians at around 4:30 today, accompanied by heavy hail....only a few miles from Wrexham!

[Aaron]

He's in Chelmsford everyone.. scroll up and read!

[Cakie]

Buckster, go top right, next to "log out" (don't do it) and click on your name. The add your location, be as detailed or as vague as you like, it just helps us with an idea of where the snow/rain/hail/thunder is happening

[Carl46Wrexham]

There were a couple of CGs and thunder over the Clwydians at around 4:30 today, accompanied by heavy hail....only a few miles from Wrexham!

I don't disbelieve you...but I saw nothing..heard nothing...and we had a completely dry day.

[in the vale]

I don't disbelieve you...but I saw nothing..heard nothing...and we had a completely dry day.

Apart from that hail, and a heavy shower about 15 mins ago (which looks to be headed in your direction), we had a completely dry day too. Just shows how localised this sort of set up can be. Edited May 14, 2012 by in the vale

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yep...shower has reached here just now.

[Jane Louise]

Expect nothing to happen Jane. That way you won't be disappointed. The usual areas will get it all...yet again...us in the west will miss out...yet again.

And they say the British weather is unpredictable? What a joke! When it comes to thundery weather...it is all too predictable which areas get clobbered, and which ones are left wondering what all the fuss was about.

Yeah Carl, you're right there lol. Just felt a bit optimistic regarding tomorrow! Anyhow, let's wait and see..who knows where one may turn up. It obviously wont be Cheltenham or Wrexham that's for sure!

[Eskimo]

It's painfully slow tonight considering tomorrow's offerings.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yeah Carl, you're right there lol. Just felt a bit optimistic regarding tomorrow! Anyhow, let's wait and see..who knows where one may turn up. It obviously wont be Cheltenham or Wrexham that's for sure!

Of course not...what would the NSC be without its long suffering inmates?

[Convective]

Cracking short hail burst here! Lasted 1 minute? Very heavy but small hail, no lightning. The hail is showing up blue/ dark green on the radar

[Carl46Wrexham]

It's painfully slow tonight considering tomorrow's offerings.

Can't speak for anyone else here, but I read about "tomorrow's offerings" and can't stop the little voice in my head from whispering "yeah right". Nearly four years of let downs have generated outright scepticism on my part at such predictions sadly. Unfortunate way of thinking I know but there ya go.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Carl43Wrexham

[Neilsouth]

[Raidan]

If we're inmates of the NSC then I must be serving a life sentence!

[Eskimo]

Can't speak for anyone else here, but I read about "tomorrow's offerings" and can't stop the little voice in my head from whispering "yeah right". Nearly four years of let downs have generated outright scepticism on my part at such predictions sadly. Unfortunate way of thinking I know but there ya go.

Never be pessimistic, or are you trying reverse psychology in the hope of things to go to plan?

[IanR]

Expect nothing to happen Jane. That way you won't be disappointed. The usual areas will get it all...yet again...us in the west will miss out...yet again.

And they say the British weather is unpredictable? What a joke! When it comes to thundery weather...it is all too predictable which areas get clobbered, and which ones are left wondering what all the fuss was about.

To be fair the east and south east have always been more prone to thunder, since day one, but this year seems to be taking the p**s even when thunder showers are forcast for here and not there , they still happen over that way anyway and not here

Edited May 14, 2012 by IanR

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 14/05/2012 22:30

Valid: 15/05/2012 00:00 - 16/05/2012 0:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Upper trough extending down from the Norwegian Sea dominates Nern Europe with its cold upper air/low heights, the UK will be under an unseasonably cool and unstable N to NW flow west of low pressure centred near Denmark at 12z Tuesday.

... ENGLAND, N and E WALES ...

UK will be under pool of cold polar air at mid levels (AOB -30C at 500mb) which will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates favouring scattered heavy showers and also thunderstorms. A few shortwave troughs are likely to move south in the N to NW flow and coupled with a strong northwesterly jet, convection will tend to organise into bands with a risk of strong winds gusts. Moderate deep-layer shear near the jet and low-freezing level will also aid development of moderate-size hail with stronger storms, though storms will probably not reach severe criteria given lack of warmth. Storms should fade after sunset.

[Carl46Wrexham]

To be fair the east and south east have always been more prone to thunder, since day one, but this year seems to be taking the p**s even when thunder showers are forcast for here and not there , they still happen over that way anyway and not here

It's always been the case that the eastern side of the UK is more likely to experience thundery weather, nothing unusual in that, but what has undoubtedly changed, especially in recent years, is that the western side of the UK has tended to miss out completely, that IS unusual, and is happening too often for it to be put down to mere co-incidence.

[DubWeatherAddict]

Some shots from here in DUblin today.

All here too

http://www.flickr.com/photos/41948286@N02/

[Aaron]

To be fair the east and south east have always been more prone to thunder, since day one, but this year seems to be taking the p**s even when thunder showers are forcast for here and not there , they still happen over that way anyway and not here

Nothing here east of the Pennines.. so it's more just luck.. there's been a few storms in the west around Cheshire, Liverpool etc.

[Norfolk Sheep]

It's always been the case that the eastern side of the UK is more likely to experience thundery weather, nothing unusual in that, but what has undoubtedly changed, especially in recent years, is that the western side of the UK has tended to miss out completely, that IS unusual, and is happening too often for it to be put down to mere co-incidence.

Depends on how far east really, I can safely say that Norfolk has generally been a poor location for storms over several years now, compared to when I first moved up here in the 1980s. We occasionally get a "big" event once a year rather than numerous thunder days as previously. The action has all been in Essex so far

[Chris.R]

Not in Liverrpool my friend, it's been dry and cloudless all day apart from a shower this evening. What a load of c**p.

[Aaron]

There was definitely a storm in Liverpool last month, I'm sure I recall you saying you either slept through it or the storm missed Crosby.. but there was one in Liverpool during the early hours last month