Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[DubWeatherAddict]

Brilliant Timelapse of yesterdays weather over here by my Mate.

Captured a CG and clear rotation and what looks like to be a funnel cloud spin up too!!

Best watched in HD full screen folks! , takes a bit of time to load though!

http://youtu.be/kjBlGzvlSBI

Edited May 8, 2012 by DubWeatherAddict

[Eskimo]

Brilliant Timelapse of yesterdays weather over here by my Mate.

Captured a CG and clear rotation and what looks like to be a funnel cloud spin up too!!

Best watched in HD full screen folks! , takes a bit of time to load though!

http://youtu.be/kjBlGzvlSBI

One of the best I've seen, well done!

[Eskimo]

From Darwin, Australia...possibly the best storm time lapse I have ever seen.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Image above shows latest SAT VR on our low pressure system sitting to the far SW of us. Plentiful moisture will be loading and this entrainment will progress steadily ENE towards our shores in the next few days. Notoriously the worst affected areas will be further to the North and East in this situation as the low under-goes cyclogenisis. More rapid deepening is not expected until exit of our shore - however the source of the airflow is more the main conncern. A few episodes of heavy prolonged rainfall are lkely with the a-typical lines forming IOW region expected to see some especially intense echoes running Reading into or close to W London and into the W/E Midlands and the Home Counties. During the exit on Thu 10th May the clearance of the cold front will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development with main focus likely to be from Gloucester into SW BIrmingham into the West Midlands into Lincolnshire. Very strong wind-shear profiles and a coupling of a strong LLJ is likely to promote the odd tornado. Areas immediately around Derby and the Pennines may also be subject to a spin up due to convergence around this area.

LLJ (Low Level Jet) analysis for Thu 10 May 2012 12Z > clearly shows a projected potential of in excess of 80kts aligning SW to NE across the Midlands running towards Lincolnshire and East Anglia. LLJ core shifts South towards Home Counties and East Anglia towards Evening. VORT MAX and warm moist axix at T850hpa sits from Gloucester to Derby with thundery activity possible along this axis from Thu 10th 12Z onwards towards evening. This boundary sweeping closer to East Anglia and N London area towards evening 18Z. The cold air intrusion (passing cold front) tied into this developing low pressure on exit is likely to induce wind shear. Monitoring MLJ 300mb jet profile this is forecast to be in excess of 140kts, which is very substantial. Their are strong indications that any thunderstorm that does develop in this environment will become strong with mesocylones and possible tornadoes. More in depth analysis will be possible closer to the time-frame - but this is certainly an early heads up for what could be a proactive line. Latest GFS 06Z guidance simulates coldest cloud top levels to be across N England, N Midlands, E Midlands and East Anglia with less emphasis on W Midlands. However we currently sit outside meso-scale in terms of forecasting. Lincolnshire, Lesicester way look hot zones. Birmingham zone can not and should not be ruled out as HIRLAM guidance suggests a more W tracking. Potential for the odd strong tornado with this, so definate close monitoring needed.

This is not my report! This is from another website!

Edited May 8, 2012 by Surrey

[A.J]

This is not my report! This is from another website!

I was reading that and was thinking to myself....."Blimey, that 'Surrey'....he's a bit of a dark horse"...then I read the quoted sentence!..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I was reading that and was thinking to myself....."Blimey, that 'Surrey'....he's a bit of a dark horse"...then I read the quoted sentence!..

-.- I am not cable of such forecasts yet..But hopefully in the future

[Beasterly]

Credits to the photographer of-course!

Edited May 8, 2012 by Delta Sun

[Lauren]

Wow!

Crikey!

Hi new to this Forum,

Took this these today from a very intense storm that developed west of Dublin

Fab pictures.

Lot's iof convection going on today, felt very thundery earlier, but nowt.

[A.J]

Image above shows latest SAT VR on our low pressure system sitting to the far SW of us. Plentiful moisture will be loading and this entrainment will progress steadily ENE towards our shores in the next few days. Notoriously the worst affected areas will be further to the North and East in this situation as the low under-goes cyclogenisis. More rapid deepening is not expected until exit of our shore - however the source of the airflow is more the main conncern. A few episodes of heavy prolonged rainfall are lkely with the a-typical lines forming IOW region expected to see some especially intense echoes running Reading into or close to W London and into the W/E Midlands and the Home Counties. During the exit on Thu 10th May the clearance of the cold front will be favorable for strong thunderstorm development with main focus likely to be from Gloucester into SW BIrmingham into the West Midlands into Lincolnshire. Very strong wind-shear profiles and a coupling of a strong LLJ is likely to promote the odd tornado. Areas immediately around Derby and the Pennines may also be subject to a spin up due to convergence around this area.

LLJ (Low Level Jet) analysis for Thu 10 May 2012 12Z > clearly shows a projected potential of in excess of 80kts aligning SW to NE across the Midlands running towards Lincolnshire and East Anglia. LLJ core shifts South towards Home Counties and East Anglia towards Evening. VORT MAX and warm moist axix at T850hpa sits from Gloucester to Derby with thundery activity possible along this axis from Thu 10th 12Z onwards towards evening. This boundary sweeping closer to East Anglia and N London area towards evening 18Z. The cold air intrusion (passing cold front) tied into this developing low pressure on exit is likely to induce wind shear. Monitoring MLJ 300mb jet profile this is forecast to be in excess of 140kts, which is very substantial. Their are strong indications that any thunderstorm that does develop in this environment will become strong with mesocylones and possible tornadoes. More in depth analysis will be possible closer to the time-frame - but this is certainly an early heads up for what could be a proactive line. Latest GFS 06Z guidance simulates coldest cloud top levels to be across N England, N Midlands, E Midlands and East Anglia with less emphasis on W Midlands. However we currently sit outside meso-scale in terms of forecasting. Lincolnshire, Lesicester way look hot zones. Birmingham zone can not and should not be ruled out as HIRLAM guidance suggests a more W tracking. Potential for the odd strong tornado with this, so definate close monitoring needed.

This is not my report! This is from another website!

Surrey, can you post the link to the web site(s) please matey...

[IanR]

Despite fairly rich low level moisture, however, I can see cloud cover and likelihood of a moist air mass aloft and general messiness inhibiting convective updrafts. Messy messy messy.

I think that was the problem here and many other places yesterday, despite being just in the orange risk zone it was just cool and overcast all day, although heavy downpours did arrive late evening but no thunder and lightning

[legritter]

spoke with my neighbour who travels around doing a job with people involved with construction and roads and they have been advised today to expect very large rainfall totals and the prospect of moderate flooding .not sure what source this is but it could be one of many weather services . i for one have seen this type of set up ,and i think the weather will be in the headlines big time wed /thurs . it now looks like the south could see even more rain than was first forecast back last sat sun / as the first systems slow down , also being this time of year could see some action with a strong sun , raining quite steady NOW ahead of the main action

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Surrey, can you post the link to the web site(s) please matey...

Gladly

Google "Met monkey" and it should come up..For some reason the site is not loading and some odd page with a woman with a back pack is..Must be having server issues

[A.J]

Gladly

Google "Met monkey" and it should come up..For some reason the site is not loading and some odd page with a woman with a back pack is..Must be having server issues

I didn't even know that null were still going.......the site does seem to be having issues, either it's been hi-jacked or someone didn't pay the bill!

[Aaron]

Gladly

Google "Met monkey" and it should come up..For some reason the site is not loading and some odd page with a woman with a back pack is..Must be having server issues

New weatherwoman perhaps?

Edited May 8, 2012 by Aaron

[Cheshire Freeze]

I didn't even know that null were still going.......the site does seem to be having issues, either it's been hi-jacked or someone didn't pay the bill!

Not entirely sure but I think I remember the guy who runs it (Tom?) said he was moving to another country? Or at least said he had something else going on. May have that bit wrong though.

Edited May 8, 2012 by CreweCold

[Staffordshire]

Was it not keithy joe who ran it?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Was it not keithy joe who ran it?

That's the one, dunno where I got Tom from

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Met monkey is still going, the guy Joe who runs it was the guy that came up with that weather report I posted a few pages back..VERY intelligent guy knows what he is talking about..Yes the site has not been updated for a little while but the reports and forecasts that come out of the forum are very detailed and usually spot on..

And no..I am not compering Netweather to Met monkey I love you guys GIMME A HUG!!!!

[Nick F]

Thursday certainly shows potential on 12z GFS for a small window of convective potential across eastern England early afternoon which *could* have favourable parameters in place for severe weather, i.e warm moist SW'erly flow, strong deep layer shear and winds backing at the surface ahead of low moving in from west and ahead of possible frontal wave. Unfortunately, the models aren't all yet decided on where to place the low, the frontal wave and wrap around occlusion and it could be rather messy with alot of cloud around from these fronts which could inhibit surface-based convection.

Interesting reading about the Oxfordshire tornado yesterday, typically I was still on holiday yesterday in Portugal, so unable to do a forecast for the potential.

[Arron]

Keeping my eyes on this, might be a quick UK chase before heading out to the US storm chase

[Coast]

Keeping my eyes on this, might be a quick UK chase before heading out to the US storm chase

Dedicated thread here:

http://forum.netweat...chase-thursday/

Looks like you might want to start early!!!

I think ESTOFEX/lightning Wizard are down this morning - can anybody confirm that please? Dedicated other sites have nothing for today, but 21st OWS going for a chance from Midnight onwards into tomorrow:

I've put my thoughts (such as they are!!! ) for tomorrow in the other thread, but today (well now!!) the flatlanders abroad, seem to be up for anything going:

[Mapantz]

You just need to WHOIS null.co.uk.

null's domain expired a few days ago, but as the DNS was still caching ok, it was working yesterday. But anyway, he's not out of the country, Keithy is just busy with work and life but yesterday he made informative posts regarding the convective potential tomorrow. With a decent low level jet, any t-storms that do fire up have the potential to form mesocyclones and possible funnel cloud/tornadoes.

It should be back up over the next few days.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Mapantz

[Coast]

In the unlikely event anyone has missed it, we have a dedicated thread specifically for the rain and convective storm (potential and actual) overnight tonight and into tomorrow here:

http://forum.netweat...rsday-10th-may/

[Lauren]

It's not often you feel a warm wind where I am and it certainly is warm today. Reminds me of the warm winds before the storm that roll in abroad.

[Coast]

Maybe Scotland and Ireland's turn today?

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 11 May 2012 06:00 to Sat 12 May 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 10 May 2012 23:03

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for France, Germany, parts of Belgium, Luxembourg, parts of Switzerland and parts of Poland mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy to excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for W-Turkey, parts of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, C-Ukraine and northwards mainly for isolated large hail, strong to isolated severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for NE Poland to Estonia mainly for a few tornado events and strong to isoalted severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A potent upper trough over Ireland and Scotland shifts to the east during the forecast, retaining its positive tilt. With no new upstream impulse and/or incoming jet max expected, only a slow shift to the south and marginal amplification to the SW of the upper trough are forecast with strongest jet core placed along its eastern fringe (e.g. S-North Sea, Denmark and S-Baltic Sea). Deep WAA downstream still sustains the strong ridge over SW/C-Europe with a weakening trend seen during the end of the forecast. An ill defined cut-off low over E/SE Europe sparks numerous showers/thunderstorms.

At the surface, a SW/NE aligned cold front is situated in the W/C-European level 1 with a slow progression towards the SE. A diurnal strengthening cycle of this front is forecast.

Maybe not?

Maybe?

Maybe not?

Tiny bit of CAPE

A bit of convergence

Lapse rates over Scotland into the NW:

Slim chances, but something to monitor maybe if you're at a loose end!!!