Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[Supacell]

I will be in Derby this afternoon after which I can either race back home to see something, stay where I am or drive the opposite way into the West Mids.

[SteveB]

A bit unexpected, but always welcome the chance of some thundery showers.

[staplehurst]

in the zone on Torro

TORRO haven't issued a forecast?

[Harry]

TORRO haven't issued a forecast?

Lol! That's wierd...Torro's forecast map, for Monday 30th April/Tues 1st May, does resemble Estofex's for today hence why I think there's been some confusion.

What's your latest thoughts Dan (for the SE/EA)? I'm looking at the models and not seeing a great deal of chance for the SE tbh...anything due to develop over France/channel looks as if it's going to swing past Kent into the N Sea. Anything developing over the SW/Midlands will track N or NE on a fairly brisk S/SW breeze.

CAPE levels based on the GFS model appear rather suppressed, although I do wonder whether this is on the basis the skies will stay largely cloudy...does anyone have access to the MLCAPE values?

Have to say I am somewhat surprised the MetO haven't put a yellow warning out for Wales...potential for some significant rainfall in a short space of time, and with tourists likely to be out in the national parks on this Bank Holiday Monday a heightened risk of some dangerous conditions IMO.

Edited May 7, 2012 by Harry

[legritter]

and we are off ,just sat outside between two pulses of rain ,but now just throwing it down , nothing spectacular but more than i expected .thanks again to the posters with the information which makes interesting reading ,looking foreward to later today ,lets hope it kicks off . and of course the big event /rainfall wise wed /thurs whos going to get the most ,north of M4 or south of it ,but of course it could all fall ON IT . m4 becomes a river .best of luck gang .

[Kain]

TORRO haven't issued a forecast?

My mistake then, though usually Torro gives out tornado warnings at a drop of a hat so they are abit slow today. I didn't think to look at the date on there forecast.

[Paul]

For those on Twitter, if you do spot any severe weather today (or in fact at any point), you can now report it with a tweet and have it plotted on our national weather alert map. More info here:

http://bit.ly/Iqcqed

[Convective]

A pretty good spread over Ireland now! Sferics from a lot of the showers!

[legritter]

absolute corker from knowhere ,at 1.30 pm 5 min ago 2 loud bangs nothing on radar probably just kicked of , gone humid ,just had a look on radar again and cells are popping up across s/west tracking n/east , there could be some interesting action later this afternoon .with a bigger band moving north and n /east across our area late aft /even cheers all .

[A.J]

plenty of action for our brethren over in Ireland....the lightning detector is lit up like a christmas tree!

[BFS/BHD]

Patiently waiting in Belfast... Long overdue a storm.

[Kookylou]

very heavy rain here. making a hell of a noise on the roof!

[Paul]

Don't forget, report your severe weather here

http://bit.ly/Iqcqed

[SteveB]

Yeah, heard a rumble of thunder from a nice littlw storm taht passed over Weston around 1-1.30pm.

[Supacell]

Looks to be sferics around North Devon.

[SteveB]

Lightning detected on two cells North of Swindon

Edited May 7, 2012 by SteveB

[AWD]

No Thunder but some minor flash flooding from a cell that passed over at around 2pm. Very heavy rain!

[MP-R]

I'm surprised there aren't more sferics in that huge mass of ppn around Bristol-South Wales-North Devon. Some quite deep echoes on the radar.

[Joey.G]

Posted on UKWW by Matt D:

Posted 07 May 2012 - 15:48

A couple of fairly lively TS developing across the southern half of Gloucestershire now between Dursley in the west and Lechlade in the east. Radar signatures suggest the cells are well being well ventillated with streams of lighter precip blowing away rapidly NEwards from two intense hail cores where lightning is rather frequent at the moment.

Cells are developing in an area of reasonably strong low level shear (surface winds still backed to the SE here). If anyone is in the area, keep an eye out for large hail, wall clouds, a funnel or even a weak tornado.

[Cloud 10]

A pair of beauties not far from Oxford.

[Staffordshire]

Where should I be looking for storms to start up if they are going to hit me? Thanks!

[LeeKay]

In the sky. To the South West!

[A.J]

just posted the following in the Midlands thread, probably of relevance here as well so 'scuse' the double post

hate to say it but cloud cover could well be the killer for thunderstorms in the west midlands today....plenty of cloud spilling up from the SW dampening down convection with no clear spots upwind of us on satellite imagery, I guess there's a chance of some embedded activity from the stuff streaming up from South Wales....More chance IMO for the east and south midlands, already two lively thunderstorms have popped up in the extreme south of the region in some clearer but unstable air, these will continue streaming NEwards as the afternoon/evening progresses....As already posted in the convective thread, these cells have plenty of energy and more especially LLS & DLS to play with, keeping the updrafts nice and clear with PPN fanning out ahead of the cores, the shear thus helping these cells regenerate and aid longevity.....Wouldn't surprise me for these and any other storms to rival the fabled May 9th storm of last year in terms of intensity & lightning as synoptics look locally very helpful

[03jtrickey]

So close...but probably no cigar here in Oxford! I did hear a rumble though which made me check the radar...

[NL]

A pair of beauties not far from Oxford.

Looking super-cellular those two, wouldn't be surprised to hear of funnel reports or even a tornado..