Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Chris K]

GFS 12z keeps the high pressure with us for next week, likely to be the same as this week though with a few upgrades there is the chance of some warm air getting pulled up from spain, but the most likey scenario is more of the same

Some cloud and thunderstorms are likey in the south west for Saturday evening / night with the cloud hanging on during sunday pushing into Wales but else where in the east its more of the same with lots of warm sunshine

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

So in summary apart from a thundery breakdown in the south west tomorrow high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future

If only I was a bum and could spend the week enjoying the weather...at least this weekend is staying warm and sunny!

Anyway regarding these potential thundery showers moving in from the SW - our local forecasts are saying it will mostly be dry for most and no mention of thunder over the weekend at all - just the odd heavy shower and a bit more cloud about. I'm not seeing if there is much potential for a thundery breakdown to be honest. yes CAPE and Li look quite good but the models aren't showing much ppn and it weakens as it heads N/NE into Devon, Somerset, Gloucestershire etc along the decaying cold front.

Am I wrong in thinking that there won't be much of a thundery breakdown at all? Could be more showers dotted about during next week though?

Edited May 25, 2012 by Chris K

[Frank Trough]

I wonder what the likes of GP are thinking re the high ending up too far west, allowing a cooler northerly flow as the Atlantic trough is too far West. Can we expect this to continue or for the high to end up to our East allowing a continuation of the warm/hot weather???

well, we all know what would happen in winter, don't we?!!

The UKMO has the trough further east at t+120, especially compared to the GEM. Would the UKMO be miles out at that time frame?

There is a bit of a trend to move the high west on some of the models since yesterday evening, though.

*edit* - the ECM has it further west at 120 as well.....hmmmmm.

Edited May 25, 2012 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[Methuselah]

Am I wrong in thinking that there won't be much of a thundery breakdown at all? Could be more showers dotted about during next week though?

At the mo, that's also the way I read it, and Gavin's synopsis doesn't seem to be too far off the mark...HOWEVER, we all know how fickle weather and weather models can be?

[Mapantz]

Always difficult to pinpoint showers in this current pattern but you do raise a fair point.

It does look like that some showers will spread towards the South West and South Wales over the weekend as a shallow low moves close by and these may extend Northwards early next week.

However there`s no major breakdown modelled and with thicknesses rising again towards midweek it is reasonable to look at the overall outlook as essentially settled.

Although i don't like going beyond T+100 on the GFS, i'll still point it out as it's a discussion.

I don't normally associate settled with a shortwave feature, but it makes it's presence known at T+120. Are we looking at the same run? lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rmgfs1201.gif

Edited May 25, 2012 by Mapantz

[Methuselah]

Can peeps please refrain from making jibes at folks who happen to like high pressure; such remarks are really not necessary. Thanks awfully, chaps...

[Milhouse]

Oh well, it looks like next weeks plume isnt going to happen. High pressure will built too strong to our north to make it possible. Still looks like staying mostly dry but temperatures will be back down to average.

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM seems to have almost a completely different positioning of the high at the minute with it linking towards Greenland. Not a very strong High pressure either. Quite at odds actually against the other models imo. We will have to compare to the ensembles. Right now, certainly no chance of hot weather. Probably average temperatures maybe just above at best.

Edited May 25, 2012 by Blizzards

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM seems to have almost a completely different positioning of the high at the minute with it linking towards Greenland. Not a very strong High pressure either. Quite at odds actually against the other models imo. We will have to compare to the ensembles. Right now, certainly no chance of hot weather. Probably average temperatures maybe just above at best.

Yep, slowly but surely the ECM is pushing that trough west and at the same time allowing pressure to rise to the NW. This is one way that we could head rapidly back to an unsettled scenario as LP can then encroach from the SW, which is what I think the MetOffice must have picked up on, having read peoples' comments on here about the further outlook.

The other alternative touted is that the trough pushes west, allows HP to centre towards the Atlantic and the UK becomes influenced by a NE'ly airflow as LP to the east pushes closer to the UK.

Edited May 25, 2012 by CreweCold

[Essan]

ECM ensemble mean is much closer to other models with HP centred over Britain next weekend

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM ensemble mean is much closer to other models with HP centred over Britain next weekend

Surely the 12z ensembles are not already out????

[Cheshire Freeze]

Surely the 12z ensembles are not already out????

I wouldn't have thought so. The operational has only just come out so probably the 0z that is being viewed.

[DTHFCJ]

i can see the 12z

edit apologies i totally misunderstood didnt read properly thought people meant the 12z ops....too much sun today

Edited May 25, 2012 by BALE1

[Deluxe]

ECM ensemble mean is much closer to other models with HP centred over Britain next weekend

Essan has powers the rest of us can only dream of

[phil nw.]

I wouldn't have thought so. The operational has only just come out so probably the 0z that is being viewed.

I can`t find 12z Ens yet either,does sound like the 00z ECM mean that was mentioned earlier.

Mind you this ECM Op ain`t bad dry and fine at first glance with comfortable temperatures.For me prefferable to a hot and humid southerly.

Edited May 25, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Milhouse]

Meteoceil and Wetterzenrale are showing the ECM op but not the mean yet. The 0z mean had high pressure sat right over the UK for next weekend. Im expecting a northwestwards movement of that high on the 12z mean but i expect the op was too keen to get rid of the high so soon.

[Essan]

Sorry, just realised I was looking at the 00z ECM mean

[phil nw.]

Sorry, just realised I was looking at the 00z ECM mean

ECM mean outputs now showing.

The mean does have the troughing over Scandinavia somewhat further East at T144hrs with the core of the upper ridge just to our West.

[Summer Sun]

ECM mean outputs now showing.

The mean does have the troughing over Scandinavia somewhat further East at T144hrs with the core of the upper ridge just to our West.

What would that mean for us in the UK fresher but sunny condition's or as this week?

[Lewis]

What would that mean for us in the UK fresher but sunny condition's or as this week?

Don't *Quote* me on this, but I think it means that although HP will be predominantly in charge throughout the period there's signals that low pressure will be close to the U.K and will try and make in roads, the GFS when I last looked wanted a drop in pressure from the North.

I don't expect any low pressure really to break through and get us in one of them zonal patterns, I expect HP to be centered or close to the U.K, pressure higher the further E/SE, low pressure creeping in to the south west, this will be good as energy will be pumped through, and if we manage to hold on to a continental flow with warmer uppers could get thundery,

[Milhouse]

Have to say that Weather Online have been far more believable than UKMO today with the weekly output.today. Think us guys ought to watch the MJO as that IMHO will give us a more accurate indicator than how the models are panning out. Have to say that the bank holiday weekend is looking fairly respectable according to the models tonight, maybe not the dizzy height temperatures as we have had but still reasonable enough and can't see much rain on it at all really.

The ECM mean may have removed the plume but it still paints a fairly dry picture if not overly warm. Still decent weather for Bank Holiday outdoor events.

[syed2878]

If i remembor the ecm made a few messups over the winter, i hope this is 1 of them.

[Deluxe]

The ECM mean may have removed the plume but it still paints a fairly dry picture if not overly warm. Still decent weather for Bank Holiday outdoor events.

True dat Disappointing outlook as far as heat is concerned, but it'll feel more than pleasant in the sun. Wouldn't take much of a shift to put us back in the warm/very warm category, although we are getting ever closer and we have been moving away from the heat scenario.

[bluearmy]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

that looks ok. the mean ridge for the 6/10 dayer is also impressive indeed. the placement of the highest anomoly not in the place to deliver blistering heat - given that there are coolish uppers headed to our east next week, i would have though a mean flow from that direction would feel rather different to recently/currently. mid teens to low twenties i suspect.

[Robbie Garrett]

Latest CFS is having not of it... High pressure pretty much in control and fairly good amount of warmth.

But it then decides for a North Atlantic onslaught for early June onwards....till about end of June. Let's wait and see....

Edited May 25, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[DAVID SNOW]

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

that looks ok. the mean ridge for the 6/10 dayer is also impressive indeed. the placement of the highest anomoly not in the place to deliver blistering heat - given that there are coolish uppers headed to our east next week, i would have though a mean flow from that direction would feel rather different to recently/currently. mid teens to low twenties i suspect.

Well done to GFS,it never went for the heat wave early june,just goes to show, it is unwise to ignore the GFS op run