Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[Fitzwis]

Hi Fitzwis, best of luck, same to you Erbyskerby

Photos if it's worth it

camera is at the ready...will be heading out soon ...

[Pete31]

We're gonna get a soaking if nothing else! Mid level cloud starting to appear here now too. Let's hope this lot delivers

[Deluxe]

Yes please - i'll chuck you a fiver for fuel

Count me in! I'll give you towards fuel. I'll make sure it's a particularly shiny example, too

[Steve Caiels]

Hearing VERY distant thunder now on the south Devon coast, 2 miles SW of Plymouth. Not much activity at the moment.

[BornFromTheVoid]

My private jet will be departing soon if anyone wants picking up on the way, destination Cornwall!

Any chance of swinging by Cork to pick me up? I haven't any money, but I can contribute some crisps and chocolate for the journey!?

[Kain]

Any webcams down that way? Could be fun to watch ^^

[syncmaster]

wheres robbie garrett when u need him,,, lol....

[philglossop]

sister is down on the southern tip of devon, thunder already rumblin around although it is still someway out in the channel.. very windy aswell.

sister is down on the southern tip of devon, thunder already rumblin around although it is still someway out in the channel.. very windy aswell.

Theres some Navy war games been going on in the channel earlier- saw them leave Plymouth Sound earlier at work- it could have been that.

[Lewis]

wheres robbie garrett when u need him,,, lol....

Knowing him he'll by flying in it haha.

[Steve Caiels]

@Philglossop. It's definately thunder now, with the odd flash of lightning. I'm just aroud the corner in Wembury

[syncmaster]

Theres some Navy war games been going on in the channel earlier- saw them leave Plymouth Sound earlier at work- it could have been that.

I think you are probably right, it was to far out in the channel at that time for it to be thunder..

[weatherobsuk]

397 strikes per hour, This cold front sure means business out in the channel.

[Jane Louise]

Estofex for tomorrow.. Maybe an isolated storm somewhere.

http://www.estofex.org/

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS/ DISCUSSION

An Omega-like blocking pattern leads to quite stable conditions over western Europe but a weak upper level disturbance may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms over parts of Germany. The highest instability can be found over France and the Aegean Sea. The chance for severe weather on Sunday is rather low.

If there might be any severe weather, the greatest possibility for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be found over S Greece and the Bosporus region towards W Turkey. As expected for most events of non-severe summertime convection, the formation of CAPE and therefore the thunderstorm activity is strongly dominated by the diurnal cycle. Isolated heavy rainfall/ large hail or a marginally severe downburst event may occur everywhere within the high probability thunderstorm areas but the coverage of events will not justify any threat level.

[weatherobsuk]

Imagine what we'd have being looking at had this cold front transferred across England during Wednesday or Thursday this week. Moderate/large CAPE + cold front + height falls = bigtime scary storms.

Well GFS has a 60/50% chance of something breaking out along the M1 corridor from London to Leeds. Lifting from this advecting cold front is a good possibility in triggering something off along those parts of the midlands, along with a convergence line ahead of whatever remnants are left from tonight.

[A.J]

@Philglossop. It's definately thunder now, with the odd flash of lightning. I'm just aroud the corner in Wembury

I phoned up my sis (who lives in Brixham)....She's reporting distant lightning out in the channel..No thunder heard though

[Lewis]

My netweather extra subscription ran out, has anyone got a radar return for me for cornwall?

Thanks

Edited May 26, 2012 by UK Storm Chasers

[Lewis]

Looks to weaken considerably as it progresses further inland, so the Midlands seeing something perhaps a bit of a reach. Monday, however, looks like it's all go lol. Very slack, converging sfc winds, strong insolation and a not-so-stout ridge aloft should see a better risk of thunderstorms firing from mid-afternoon period.

What do you reckon for England tomorrow? Could the remains of this cold front spark something off.

[Tim B]

Tomorrow, no. Midweek onwards looks like our best bet.

[weatherobsuk]

Looks to weaken considerably as it progresses further inland, so the Midlands seeing something perhaps a bit of a reach. Monday, however, looks like it's all go lol. Very slack, converging sfc winds, strong insolation and a not-so-stout ridge aloft should see a better risk of thunderstorms firing from mid-afternoon period.

Oh forgot to mention that was for Monday but going with the Meto Surface forecast it's the remnants of this same CF, only prepping up what little activity we've seen the past week in the form of realistic forcing and enhanced DPs injecting more CAPE up into the uppers to support whatever lift occurs.

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest

Tomorrow, no. Midweek onwards looks like our best bet.

The latest from 18z show a decent cape for tomorrow

[Damone]

I wasn't expecting a storm here today, and I'm happy it remained mainly off the coast! We've had rain here solidly now since 10pm.

Had a fair amount of thunder and lightning, which lasted around an hour. Some of the strikes were fairly close, but not very loud at all.

[ZONE 51]

My private jet will be departing soon if anyone wants picking up on the way, destination Cornwall!

Yes please - i'll chuck you a fiver for fuel

Ha!! my mates petrol model aircraft wouldn't get of the ground for that.. it doesn't get off the ground! add a few 000s

I think we should all chip in for a large plane and then go storm chasing!

http://www.skystef.be/obs-satir.htm

Amazing image here, one of the best from above that i have ever seen, stunning, this is 1900hrs saturday, the thunderstorms being chatted about in recent hours are in that bubbly line from France to SW England, you can see the clear skies across many other areas away from the front

Edited May 27, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Andy Bown]

By running the radar and lightning detector from the overnight period it seems that the thundery activity increased on/near the Devon coast

as the sun rose before lessening again.

[Supacell]

A lot of CAPE around the SW, Wales and W Midlands today. I wonder if any of that will be used or if it will go to waste. GFS has precipitation across these areas but the met office not really on board. I don't have access to nmm etc so can't check on them.

[Coast]

Morning all!

ESTOFEX have an area ringed over the UK for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 27 May 2012 06:00 to Mon 28 May 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 26 May 2012 21:26

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS/ DISCUSSION

An Omega-like blocking pattern leads to quite stable conditions over western Europe but a weak upper level disturbance may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms over parts of Germany. The highest instability can be found over France and the Aegean Sea. The chance for severe weather on Sunday is rather low.

UKASF have something similar:

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 2012-05-26 23:08:00

Valid: 2012-05-27 00:00:00 - 2012-05-27 23:59:00

Areas Affected:

SLGT: SW England, W Country, Wales, S Ireland

Synopsis:

An area of low pressure to the west of Biscay will begin to fill as a cold front moves northeastwards across southwest Britain. A warm and dry airmass will be present across the British Isles ahead of this front.

Discussion:

During the early hours of the morning, it is quite likely that sferic activity will continue over Devon and Cornwall, extending across towards southern Ireland by the end of the night as a result of DMC along the frontal boundary. MLCAPE begins to decrease during the morning, and it is likely that sferic activity will gradually ease as the cold front moves across Somerset, weakening and becoming more fragmented.

Thereafter, some (but not all) models indicate a significant build-up of CAPE (>600J/kg) as LSTs rise during the day, which then may allow a few showers or thunderstorms to develop ahead of the main cold front on Sunday afternoon and evening - this is primarily due to low-level convergence (sea breeze effects) and topography, particularly over the Welsh mountains. Such showers/storms may persist until the late evening hours.

An overlap of notable DLS and LLS, combined with CZ, increases the chance of a weak funnel or tornado developing, particularly over Wales. Given the predicted CAPE values and reasonably dry air aloft, some hail is possible, perhaps moderate in size.

21st OWS have it out in the Atlantic:

But the lightning possibility is strong in Wales later:

Charts from HiRLAM also show the CAPE out in the Atlantic:

Some convergence later on out over Devon and Wales:

So maybe Wales at the end of the afternoon???