Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[Lewis]

Seems to be convection happening up here, temp of 21 with a dew of 17c feels really sticky, it couldn't could it??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anvil to my east, fresher here with a NW wind,

[weatherobsuk]

Looks like that convergence zone has really got going the past hour in the East, a shame it just didn't happen even 3 hours ago when there was still solar heating going on.

[Robbie Garrett]

Robbie Garratt gave a pretty decent response to my question earlier today re: why it is that storms these days are now so prevalent in the East, whilst the West gets practically nothing. Whilst pondering this, my thoughts turned to a related question, why is it that Spanish Plumes these days track north easterly instead of north, tending to impact the South East and the Low Countries instead of the bulk of the UK like they often did in years gone by?...and why is it, that nowadays, storms tend to die as they cross the English Channel? What has caused these changes?

I agree. I seriously think someone with the relevant knowledge etc should look into this. Something has evidently changed including this sudden prevalence of Northern Blocking in Summer which shows signs of happening again this month. All other countries seem to be benefiting with warmer, more thundery weather except Britain.

Garrett

Well it's clearly the only valid explanation and that is the cold front is weaker, because it was fairly weak when it passed overhead London. UHI effect helped the clouds bubble up and only a small area of the South East got the storms, they seemed to be more concentrated north and east of London.

The jetstream is as response of the temperature difference between the air in arctic and that of the tropics. I think there is more things to do with the Polar Cell, Ferrel Cell and Hadley Cell affecting our weather than most people think, as I am under the believe it is having an effect on the weather distribution. The fact that the jetstream is further south I guess means that there is only a massive temperature difference further south, whilst it used to be further north. This surely would be evidence of cooler than normal temperatures?? with a northerly tracking jetstream being as result of warmer air pushing further north.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[80sWeather]

Well nice storm at 17:00 here,got soaked biking home from work.

There is something about heavy rain on a hot sultry day, feels and smells so refreshing.

Everybody dressed in summer clothes soaked thru,hiding in shop doorways from the rain. Was a fun journey home.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like that convergence zone has really got going the past hour in the East, a shame it just didn't happen even 3 hours ago when there was still solar heating going on.

Can see the top of that anvil east of Sheffield from here!

[johnholmes]

thunderstorms in summer have always been more prevalent in the east/central areas of England than further west. There is nothing new in that, look at any charts showing frequency distribution through the year and note how the area of frequency changes through the seasons.

see the link below for the averages for 1971-2000

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/r/Fact_sheet_No._2.pdf

and a whole lot more than should interest you storm fans

Edited May 28, 2012 by johnholmes

[biddie]

Heard some rumbling thunder from the cell to my east about 20 minutes ago, strange because its a fair distance away!

im in stevo n didnt hear a thing weired was outside too

[Carl46Wrexham]

thunderstorms in summer have always been more prevalent in the east/central areas of England than further west. There is nothing new in that, look at any charts showing frequency distribution through the year and note how the area of frequency changes through the seasons.

I accept that eastern areas have always had a greater number of storms, nothing unusual in that, that is not the issue, the question being raised is why are large parts of the west missing out completely year on year? Now that for me IS unusual. The charts which show frequency distribution would suggest that western parts of the UK should see at least a few thundery days per year, but this is not happening.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Carl43Wrexham

[geg1992]

Anyone got any decent pictures or videos of the storms?

[Methuselah]

I accept that eastern areas have always had a greater number of storms, nothing unusual in thatm that is not the issue, the question being raised is why are large parts of the west missing out completely year on year. Now that for me IS unusual.

London & the South East have also missed-out over the past two summers...

[geg1992]

London & the South East have also missed-out over the past two summers...

Yeah the last two summers have been poor, this year I had a thunderstorm, well more of a shower every day for about 10-11 days straight. I guess we're just better placed in terms of the ingredients for thunderstorms.

[DAVID SNOW]

I accept that eastern areas have always had a greater number of storms, nothing unusual in that, that is not the issue, the question being raised is why are large parts of the west missing out completely year on year? Now that for me IS unusual. The charts which show frequency distribution would suggest that western parts of the UK should see at least a few thundery days per year, but this is not happening.

Averages are taken over a long period of time, it will even itself out.

[wimblettben]

I agree with Carl43Wrexham.

Western areas actually used to get quite a lot of storms as well in Spring, Summer, Autumn and even Winter.

From what I see and can remember, it all wen't down hill for us from 2007 onwards.

[Darren Bown]

thunderstorms in summer have always been more prevalent in the east/central areas of England than further west. There is nothing new in that, look at any charts showing frequency distribution through the year and note how the area of frequency changes through the seasons.

see the link below for the averages for 1971-2000

http://www.metoffice...sheet_No._2.pdf

and a whole lot more than should interest you storm fans

Great read, interesting that there is a 'blob' of higher thunder days in the Cheshire plain compared to the area around it

[johnholmes]

for those who seem insistent that days of thunder are less than they used to be in some areas I have no data to prove or disprove your theory. Unless you have actual data over 10 years at least preferrably 20 to compare with the average then there is no way of an accurate comparison.

Without wishing to offend I do suspect one or two of you are have selective amnesia-it happens with all of us about all manner of things.

Show me the actual data to back up your theory and I will, as always, apologise?

[weatherobsuk]

Anyone got any decent pictures or videos of the storms?

This was the Sheffield cell taken just past 9pm. I was hoping to see some sferics as far away as here from this TCu, but looks like it succumbed to the lowering temps not too long after this pic was taken.

[Lewis]

I would love another event like Summer 2005 here in Hull, here's what a guy filmed in Hull from a block of flats, at the time it was the most violent thunderstorms i've ever witnessed up until going to Cornwall a year later staying in saint austell in a tent having to get through 5 hours of lightning where they was over 3,000 confirmed cloud to ground strikes in that part of Cornwall overnight!

Thunderstorm over hull 2005

[Allseasons-Si]

Here's the pics i took earlier of that cell forming to the SE of me

it was great to watch it grow in the space of 30 minutes

[Allseasons-Si]

there is a echo of ppn just east of hull just popped up out of no where

[Supacell]

The best I got was a view of a distant thunderstorm, probably the Peterborough one, that I could see from Leicester area. I did think about going after it but as it happens I am glad I didn't as it seemed to kill itself off fairly readily.

Bit gutted that I was travelling via Worksop/Sheffield about an hour before a storm kicked off. If I had only hung around for a little longer.

2012 still void of storms for me so far. But then again, in 2005 I did not see a single storm until 19th June and it then turned out to be my best year for storm chasing at that time and is still yet to be beaten.

[carinthian]

Great read, interesting that there is a 'blob' of higher thunder days in the Cheshire plain compared to the area around it

During my time living in Cheshire, many storms were spurned in the Market Drayton/ Nantwich area and generally moved north into the plain. At my time working at The Manchester Weather Centre, we were one of the first sights to have high resolution radar and this development was picked up in its early development. Maybe its location between the Southern Pennines and the Welsh mountains was a good convergence zone.

[Carl46Wrexham]

for those who seem insistent that days of thunder are less than they used to be in some areas I have no data to prove or disprove your theory. Unless you have actual data over 10 years at least preferrably 20 to compare with the average then there is no way of an accurate comparison.

Without wishing to offend I do suspect one or two of you are have selective amnesia-it happens with all of us about all manner of things.

Show me the actual data to back up your theory and I will, as always, apologise?

Going by my own area here :

According to Fig 12 on the fact sheet you provided a link to, the average summer thunder days is 3-4 (for years 1971-2000)

Summer 2011 - 1 thunder day (Well below average)

Summer 2010 - 0 thunder days (Well below average)

Summer 2009 - 1 thunder day (distant rumbles >8 miles away (Well below average)

Summer 2008 - The last year when storms were overhead, and activity was average.

I have kept records since 2008, so it is definately not a case of selective amnesia. There HAS been a notable lack of activity since 2008.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Carl43Wrexham

[Cheshire Freeze]

During my time living in Cheshire, many storms were spurned in the Market Drayton/ Nantwich area and generally moved north into the plain. At my time working at The Manchester Weather Centre, we were one of the first sights to have high resolution radar and this development was picked up in its early development. Maybe its location between the Southern Pennines and the Welsh mountains was a good convergence zone.

Well it doesn't seem to be that way recently!

[UKVoodoo]

Here's the last storm that was close enough to observe Flashes and Thunder in, rather then just an odd rumble 10 or more miles away in the distance......date is 18.07.2007