UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[Robbie Garrett]

The last "proper" Thunderstorm was on the night of the death of Michael Jackson (June 25, 2009) some proper intense downpours, close cloud to ground lightning and very loud thunder, best storm for a while during the night-time anyway! Lets hope for a good storm this summer....well maybe...could be next year!

thanks for that, for anyone interested, I've gone through the stats, and have come up with the following conclusion.........

MY BRAIN JUST DIED READING ALL THAT DATA!!

...just kidding, so if I've read the data correctly for the summer month period (may to august) and in summary

1970's - generally positive NAO

1980's - positive/neutral NAO's May's....negative NAO June's.... strongly positive NAO's July's....negative/neutral August's

1990's - negative NAO's May, June, & July months.....strongly positive NAO' Augusts

2000's - neutral NAO's May months, negative NAO's June, July & August months

bare in mind, I've average the data per decade...I'd have to dig a lot deeper to for individual years...... it'll be interesting to correlate that data to the amount of thunderstorms in any given summer to work out the relationship, if any.......Anyhoos after all that number crunching, I need a stiff drink & two aspirin for the brain ache....lol

That would probably tie in with how I remember my Childhood, Lauren and Harry and many others have also elaborated on this.

August, September, October 1997 where some of the most scariest months of my life. It brings back a lot of memories. A quick check shows those months where pretty much positive NAO (except Oct) 1999 was also a good year, and that kinda shows with the positive NAO.

I think you've probably hit the nail on the head here AJ.

The only time in the last 10 years that was up there with the best was June 2005, and July 2006. NAO Positive/Neutral in these occasions.

One of these this Summer would be nice.

I also remember 07th July 2009 being a fairly good day, that was the last time I remember a proper Summer Storm. The one last year being the only exception, but they where not even as intense.

[Hodgheg]

Its strange but there obviously must be an explanation

Anyway if we are not going to get storms tommorrow I have been watching them on u tube, This one is a tornado that touched down about a mile from my house last year and I was at work and missed it, DAMN, as this part of the sky is visible from where i am sat right now DAMN again

However I did hear the thunder from this storm though, The tornado did the usuall british thing of tossing garden trampolines over the road and ripping tiles off roofs . Not my clip BTW and the music is annoying .......

Well if theres a correlation between people that own trampolines and the occurence of tornadoes, If anyone wants to see a storm, buy one and we may be luckier.

[Robbie Garrett]

[Hodgheg]

Looks like its running away.

I personally think storms have decreased, i clearly remember 2004 when we had a month with so many storms, i saw a funnel cloud that august too. There was storm nearly every evening. Would like a summer like that again.

[A.J]

That would probably tie in with how I remember my Childhood, Lauren and Harry and many others have also elaborated on this.

August, September, October 1997 where some of the most scariest months of my life. It brings back a lot of memories. A quick check shows those months where pretty much positive NAO (except Oct) 1999 was also a good year, and that kinda shows with the positive NAO.

I think you've probably hit the nail on the head here AJ.

The only time in the last 10 years that was up there with the best was June 2005, and July 2006. NAO Positive/Neutral in these occasions.

One of these this Summer would be nice.

I also remember 07th July 2009 being a fairly good day, that was the last time I remember a proper Summer Storm. The one last year being the only exception, but they where not even as intense.

I might have got it a bit I have a-r-s-e about-face actually, I need to re-check the figures...In my idea, a positive NAO would equate to more atlantic influence and less continental (i.e thundery) influence...oh well, my brain hurts and I'm tired....lol

I guess it all depends on where you live as to how the NAO affects frequency of storms (if indeed it does)...For the south-east a more neutral NAO would be ideal I guess, for more western/north western parts, a weakly negative NAO would be ideal....I think

Edited May 29, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Phil UK]

When Tstorm forecasting was more on the nail.

Well. I think after all the hype of thundery downpours that would break up this current heatwave, it has turned out to be nothing more than an anti-climax thus far. And I can't see tomorrow, the main day (allegedly) of heavy showers and isolated storms coming much to fruition either. I hope I'm wrong but with UK weather, you can get used to disappointments. Snow and thunderstorms being in the main.

And Catgirl... I think you're referring to 23rd September 2010 with that storm over Wolverhampton just after sunset. I could see that cell from here in Solihull.

Phil.

[A.J]

blimey...a pretty sharp shower here currently....unexpected!

[Hodgheg]

When Tstorm forecasting was more on the nail.

Well. I think after all the hype of thundery downpours that would break up this current heatwave, it has turned out to be nothing more than an anti-climax thus far. And I can't see tomorrow, the main day (allegedly) of heavy showers and isolated storms coming much to fruition either. I hope I'm wrong but with UK weather, you can get used to disappointments. Snow and thunderstorms being in the main.

And Catgirl... I think you're referring to 23rd September 2010 with that storm over Wolverhampton just after sunset. I could see that cell from here in Solihull.

Phil.

Look at the temperature contrast on that cold front, we need a setup like this again. I clearly remember a few years ago, a cold front coming through after a realy hot spell. It was amazing seeing the shelf cloud and the green rain shaft behind with lightning constantly flashing.

[IanR]

I am not an expert at meteorology, obviously, but I think there is something more to it than than just NAO as to why there are less storms

Maybe more sunspot activity and solar storms increase thunderstorms, maybe the increased CO2 (heaver air, less bouyancy) has a negative effect and is decreasing storms, then again maybe not. we will just have to live with less storms or move to some country that has many more.

[Hodgheg]

I am not an expert at meteorology, obviously, but I think there is something more to it than than just NAO as to why there are less storms

Maybe more sunspot activity and solar storms increase thunderstorms, maybe the increased CO2 (heaver air, less bouyancy) has a negative effect and is decreasing storms, then again maybe not. we will just have to live with less storms or move to some country that has many more.

I agree that there are probably alot of factors for the reason, im not sure the incrase in CO2 would have much effect since its still such a tiny part compared to the other gasses in the atmosphere.

The other day i was looking up scientific papers into meteorology in the uk, and it astounds me how comared how little reseach there is into thunderstorms.

[ZONE 51]

It's interesting everyones onto the lack of storm reasons!!

I was once told "after a heatwave the coldest day brings the thunderstorms"

[IanR]

watching that 1992 forcast has made me realise why storms have decreased, its the BBC ! ever sice they took those yellow zigzag lightning symbols away and replaced them with just blue splodges, thats all we end up getting, just spoldges of patchy rain instead of thunder and lightning. BRING BACK THE OLD GRAPHICS BBC

[Hodgheg]

It's interesting everyones onto the lack of storm reasons!!

I was once told "after a heatwave the coldest day brings the thunderstorms"

Well that is true!

[Phelpsy]

The zig zags lol that is so true

[Robbie Garrett]

I might have got it a bit I have a-r-s-e about-face actually, I need to re-check the figures...In my idea, a positive NAO would equate to more atlantic influence and less continental (i.e thundery) influence...oh well, my brain hurts and I'm tired....lol

I guess it all depends on where you live as to how the NAO affects frequency of storms (if indeed it does)...For the south-east a more neutral NAO would be ideal I guess, for more western/north western parts, a weakly negative NAO would be ideal....I think

Well the months with the most thundery activity seem to have a more neutral NAO come to look at it..

June 2005 for example had -0.05 NAO, It had 20 active Thunderstorm days. August 1997 had a NAO of 0.34 and from what I remember that wiped out Southern England on occasions. I suspect finely balanced conditions may be more crucial for Thunderstorms??

I have emailed the metoffice looking for 1990s Storm data. Might be interesting to have a look at this and see what we can find.

April 2012 was quite neutral and that provided a lot of Thunderstorms for me. As you say it may be more influential depending where you live. Also the May 2001 MCS that was mentioned in the link you gave me earlier had a NEUTRAL NAO. April 0.00 May - -0.02

So with a negative NAO, there is less likely to be Thunderstorms because there is more cooler air and a southerly tracking jetstream, but with a positive NAO you have more warmer air further north as the jetstream is likely to be over the top or the the north. With something neutral you have equal amounts of cooler air and equal amounts of warm/moist air allowing strong intense thunderstorms??

Am I on too something? LOL!!

Edit: 2005, had a lot of NEUTRAL NAO months. 2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63 -0.98 -0.31 -0.44 - and that had the busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season on record.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Hodgheg]

lets have trampolines and Zig zags ,then we might get all the storms we want, i feel as if this discussion has gone off course.

What are people thoughts on tomorrow prospects?

[Norfolk Sheep]

Well whatever the reason (and I'm in total agreement about the reintroduction of flashy things on the BBC forecast ) we'll just have to live with it, frustrating as it is. I also was thinking about the time of day - in the late 80s and 90s you'd get storms at any old hour; I remember 7am in NW London (lasted for 2hrs, incredible rainfall and flooding), 11am in Norfolk (got caught out on horseback!), 1.30pm (remember this very well, was in 1992, we were building an extension and my husband treated the scaffolding like a giant Faraday cage..) and so on and such like, right up to a 3hr extravaganza in the 80s with constant lightning from around 7.30pm til almost 11pm but no rain - everyone got chairs and sat out on the village green to watch it. Happy days....

[ZONE 51]

What i'm trying to find out is not the lack of home grown storms, but imported storms, there could be a connection with the winter cold spells, the severity of the cold and snow here in the southeast and lack off imported storms over the last few years.

Edited May 29, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

edit.. someone could make a topic on this

[Robbie Garrett]

edit.. someone could make a topic on this

Your wish come true...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73399-netweather-community-investigation-into-lack-of-thunderstorms/

[lfcdude]

john hatton

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@

johnpockos

@

fergieweather

Thundery breakdown for us tomorrow our not?

Ian Fergusson

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@

fergieweather

@

johnpockos

perhaps thundery in eastern districts, ie some parts of Glos / Wilts, but we'll see.

thats our weather man forecast for me... so anyone east should look good?

p.s... now u know my tweeter.. can follow me ha... sure you all know who fergieweather is,

Edited May 29, 2012 by lfcdude

[ZONE 51]

Looking through the NAE/GFS data, it is looking like we would see some thunderstorms breaking out today, some convergence zones showing up quite well, especially along the eastern side of the UK where we see the highest CAPE levels, rising temperatures and reasonable dew points, quite alot of available moisture.

Edited May 30, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

[The PIT]

Only a passing mention of any storms this morning forecast and these being confined to the south east. Showers seem to be less widespread although could be heavy. You never know we may get a pleasant surprise. As with the humdinger forecasts things can always be very much different from forecast.

[The watcher]

Alot of alto cumulus this morning. Good signs already. Still to hear a rumble of thunder since 2010.