UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[fromey]

just caught the BBC weather with Darren bett, not looking good really, in his words light and well scattered showers!!!

fromey

[Kain]

@Stormraider Nothing over here mate, though the sky has turned orange!

Edited May 29, 2012 by Kain

[Cheshire Freeze]

just caught the BBC weather with Darren bett, not looking good really, in his words light and well scattered showers!!!

fromey

Light and well scattered showers.....couldn't make it up could you. Just 2 days ago tomorrow was looking very juicy indeed.

[IanR]

Just what does it take now, everytime I hear the word thunder in a forcast I just dismiss it straight away, something has changed in the climate regarding storms but nobody can explain it, I certainly can't

[Costa Del Fal]

So the trough looks like magically reaching the East for peak heating as per usual tomorrow. Can someone please explain why this ALWAYS Happens.

However could the Occluded front to the West help us here later in the day maybe???

[Aaron]

I'd like someone explain to me why orographic lifting never happens here but the opposite occurs (i.e the Pennines kill convection rather than initiating it)

Some things just don't make sense.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Aaron

[Kain]

So the trough looks like magically reaching the East for peak heating as per usual tomorrow. Can someone please explain why this ALWAYS Happens.

However could the Occluded front to the West help us here later in the day maybe???

Probably the same reason you were told a few days ago mate? I know its frustrating but short of moving there is nothing we can do. We're just unlucky

[Phelpsy]

I know we won't get storms here but can see cloud moving in from the southwest that looks like the heavy nature

[IanR]

I've noticed that several members have been wondering why there have been a distinct lack of storms over the western half of the uk in recent summers, and also members from the south-east sector of the UK asking why they rarely see the amount of storms in recent summers, in particular overnight MCS's that have been observed in previous summers.....

Well, I might be talking complete garbage, so bear with me, but isn't it something to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation.....In recent summers, we've been under the influence of a +NAO which, as it promotes an increased westerly air flow, skews the axis of thundery troughs over Biscay/France in a SW to NE direction, meaning that these thundery troughs/thermal lows/what ever else you want to call them, are forced NEwards over the low countries, leaving the South East of England high & dry, so to speak....

...Wheras summers that produce lots of thundery activity for all parts of the UK are due to the UK being under the influence of a -NAO, which is notable for it's supressing of the normal W/SW prevailing air pattern, allowing thundery lows which form over Biscay & southern France to move with more of a north or even north westerly component, thus affecting the UK?..

This is just my guess on what has happened over the past few summers, so any feedback from the more learned members would be appreciated, even if it's just to point me in the right direction

Its a valid theory, but ...I was around in the 70's and 80's and we stll had lots of atlantic infuenced summers, but we still got regular storms in the summer . and its not selective memory as I remember recording the number days between storms, if two weeks went by without a storm in June, July or August it would have been considerd unusuall ! and the timing of the fronts coming from the atlantic to hit the warm air seemed to occur late evening say about 8 o clock on many occasions giving a good dusk display,This just does not happen much now. We are talking once every two or three years not every two weeks for this type of evening storm to happen, if you are in luck that is, No doubt about it , thundery activity has dramatically reduced here over the years

[A.J]

I'd like someone explain to me why orographic lifting never happens here but the opposite occurs (i.e the Pennines kill convection rather than initiating it)

Some things just don't make sense.

ok.....it shouldn't kill convection at all......in this current summer scenario, east/west LLC will cause convection to initiate over the pennines, but due to it's very topography (roughly north to south) anything that does develop will be steered by the LLC, thus showers/storms will move along the line of LLC, not against it......Also worth noting that when you get an easterly convective winter shower setup, you'll see more convective activity than to the west of the pennines, as to due to the very nature of Orographic lifting, the Pennines act as a natural rain shadow, whereas in a westerly or SWerly convective air pattern, the opposite will occur, i.e you'll be in the natural rain shadow....just my two-penneth

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Couple of spots of rain and a very menacing sky. Surprised when I looked at the radar to see absolutely nothing.

you would be wrong in saying that now zoom to rg12 1aw

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Edited May 29, 2012 by Surrey

[A.J]

Its a valid theory, but ...I was around in the 70's and 80's and we stll had lots of atlantic infuenced summers, but we still got regular storms in the summer . and its not selective memory as I remember recording the number days between storms, if two weeks went by without a storm in June, July or August it would have been considerd unusuall ! and the timing of the fronts coming from the atlantic to hit the warm air seemed to occur late evening say about 8 o clock on many occasions giving a good dusk display,This just does not happen much now. We are talking once every two or three years not every two weeks for this type of evening storm to happen, if you are in luck that is, No doubt about it , thundery activity has dramatically reduced here over the years

Hi Ian, just a thought....we may well have had atlantic influenced summers in the past, but if my thoughts are correct, and it's a big 'if'.....it might be plausible that in those summers you mentioned, the NAO might have been bordering on positive to neutral which would allow atlantic to encroach, but still allow the UK to be partially under the influence of the warm/unstable Euro airmass......again, this would depend on my 'theory' being correct....lol......As to why the timings of atlantic/convective troughs being now poor for storm initiation over the western UK (eg earlier in the morning period)?....I haven't got a clue!

[Cloud 10]

Hi Ian, just a thought....we may well have had atlantic influenced summers in the past, but if my thoughts are correct, and it's a big 'if'.....it might be plausible that in those summers you mentioned, the NAO might have been bordering on positive to neutral which would allow atlantic to encroach, but still allow the UK to be partially under the influence of the warm/unstable Euro airmass......again, this would depend on my 'theory' being correct....lol......As to why the timings of atlantic/convective troughs being now poor for storm initiation over the western UK (eg earlier in the morning period)?....I haven't got a clue!

Here are the NAO monthly indexes starting from 1950.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Some light research for a friday night.

[IanR]

Hi Ian, just a thought....we may well have had atlantic influenced summers in the past, but if my thoughts are correct, and it's a big 'if'.....it might be plausible that in those summers you mentioned, the NAO might have been bordering on positive to neutral which would allow atlantic to encroach, but still allow the UK to be partially under the influence of the warm/unstable Euro airmass......again, this would depend on my 'theory' being correct....lol......As to why the timings of atlantic/convective troughs being now poor for storm initiation over the western UK (eg earlier in the morning period)?....I haven't got a clue!

Its strange but there obviously must be an explanation

Anyway if we are not going to get storms tommorrow I have been watching them on u tube, This one is a tornado that touched down about a mile from my house last year and I was at work and missed it, DAMN, as this part of the sky is visible from where i am sat right now DAMN again

However I did hear the thunder from this storm though, The tornado did the usuall british thing of tossing garden trampolines over the road and ripping tiles off roofs . Not my clip BTW and the music is annoying .......

[catgirl]

Its a valid theory, but ...I was around in the 70's and 80's and we stll had lots of atlantic infuenced summers, but we still got regular storms in the summer . and its not selective memory as I remember recording the number days between storms, if two weeks went by without a storm in June, July or August it would have been considerd unusuall ! and the timing of the fronts coming from the atlantic to hit the warm air seemed to occur late evening say about 8 o clock on many occasions giving a good dusk display,This just does not happen much now. We are talking once every two or three years not every two weeks for this type of evening storm to happen, if you are in luck that is, No doubt about it , thundery activity has dramatically reduced here over the years

I remember storms of the late 80's and 90's. I was seriously scared of thunder as a child, and used to wake my Dad up every night there was a storm. Often storms occurred every few days in the hot summers. In the end my parents decided I should confront my fear and took me to the highest point (I'm from South Bedfordshire, so it was Dunstable Downs) to watch a fierce storm. Instantly cured, it was beautiful! And an obsession was born! Thundery storms were definitely more frequent then.

I live in the West Midlands currently, and apart from the now infamous storm in 2010 (was it September? October?) I've yet to experience anything more than the odd rumble or flash.

I don't actually know what my brain fart will add to this thread, lmao, but yeah, there is a trend in less frequent stormy weather in the last 10-15 years. Definitely NOT selective memory when you actively seek storms to watch.

[Nick L]

You would have thought in a warming climate that there would be more energy to tap into!

[Marcus_surfer]

BBC forecast keeps changing every half hour....will it be light showers or heavy showers or stay dry...who knows!

[Cloud 10]

Its strange but there obviously must be an explanation

Anyway if we are not going to get storms tommorrow I have been watching them on u tube, This one is a tornado that touched down about a mile from my house last year and I was at work and missed it, DAMN, as this part of the sky is visible from where i am sat right now DAMN again

However I did hear the thunder from this storm though, The tornado did the usuall british thing of tossing garden trampolines over the road and ripping tiles off roofs . Not my clip BTW and the music is annoying .......

Great video,but it wins the "most inappropriate tornado music ever" award!

[DeepSnow]

BBC forecast keeps changing every half hour....will it be light showers or heavy showers or stay dry...who knows!

I hope we get lucky tomorrow! The last couple of years have only seen thundery showers here instead of proper thunderstorms! We have to get a thunderstorm someday, surely!?

Edited May 29, 2012 by DeepSnow

[PhilM1]

I remember storms of the late 80's and 90's. I was seriously scared of thunder as a child, and used to wake my Dad up every night there was a storm. Often storms occurred every few days in the hot summers. In the end my parents decided I should confront my fear and took me to the highest point (I'm from South Bedfordshire, so it was Dunstable Downs) to watch a fierce storm. Instantly cured, it was beautiful! And an obsession was born! Thundery storms were definitely more frequent then.

I live in the West Midlands currently, and apart from the now infamous storm in 2010 (was it September? October?) I've yet to experience anything more than the odd rumble or flash.

I don't actually know what my brain fart will add to this thread, lmao, but yeah, there is a trend in less frequent stormy weather in the last 10-15 years. Definitely NOT selective memory when you actively seek storms to watch.

I was the same as you Catgirl, As a child I was terrified of storms, would close the curtains in the day to block out the lightning and stick fingers in ears to drown out the thunder, and god forbid the nighttime storms, I'd by under the sheet, head under pillow all night.

I'm now 39 and during my childhood I not only remember the usual remit of 3 hot days followed by thunder, and usually it was storm after storm after storm, but the night time all nighters.

Like you I was cured with 'shock therapy' only mine was accidental rather than forced upon, walking home from junior school a storm came over and a CG struck within a few hundred metres and after the inital shock it was like, well that wasn't so bad, I'm out in the open, not hurt and that loud thunder was kind of cool!

But on the subject of the old Summers and plenty of storms, being terrified at the time I sure knew how to 'forecast' storms by looking at cloud formations building down stream, but I also had what at the time I thought was a gift of getting a headache 20 minutes before thunder! Only since coming on these forums in the last 5 years or so have I discovered many people get storm headaches!

[A.J]

Here are the NAO monthly indexes starting from 1950.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Some light research for a friday night.

thanks for that, for anyone interested, I've gone through the stats, and have come up with the following conclusion.........

MY BRAIN JUST DIED READING ALL THAT DATA!!

...just kidding, so if I've read the data correctly for the summer month period (may to august) and in summary

1970's - generally positive NAO

1980's - positive/neutral NAO's May's....negative NAO June's.... strongly positive NAO's July's....negative/neutral August's

1990's - negative NAO's May, June, & July months.....strongly positive NAO' Augusts

2000's - neutral NAO's May months, negative NAO's June, July & August months

bare in mind, I've average the data per decade...I'd have to dig a lot deeper to for individual years...... it'll be interesting to correlate that data to the amount of thunderstorms in any given summer to work out the relationship, if any.......Anyhoos after all that number crunching, I need a stiff drink & two aspirin for the brain ache....lol

Edited May 29, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Marcus_surfer]

I hope we get lucky tomorrow! The last couple of years have only seen thundery showers here instead of proper thunderstorms! We have to get a thunderstorm someday, surely!?

The last "proper" Thunderstorm was on the night of the death of Michael Jackson (June 25, 2009) some proper intense downpours, close cloud to ground lightning and very loud thunder, best storm for a while during the night-time anyway! Lets hope for a good storm this summer....well maybe...could be next year!

[IanR]

Great video,but it wins the "most inappropriate tornado music ever" award!

LOL true, but so gutted I missed this, it not everday a tornado touches down in your vicinity especially in these storm starved times, you can see good roation on the upper clouds, A supercell in Wigan and Leigh, hard to believe

[A.J]

thanks for that, for anyone interested, I've gone through the stats, and have come up with the following conclusion.........

MY BRAIN JUST DIED READING ALL THAT DATA!!

...just kidding, so if I've read the data correctly for the summer month period (may to august) and in summary

1970's - generally positive NAO

1980's - positive/neutral NAO's May's....negative NAO June's.... strongly positive NAO's July's....negative/neutral August's

1990's - negative NAO's May, June, & July months.....strongly positive NAO' Augusts

2000's - neutral NAO's May months, negative NAO's June, July & August months

bare in mind, I've average the data per decade...I'd have to dig a lot deeper to for individual years...... it'll be interesting to correlate that data to the amount of thunderstorms in any given summer to work out the relationship, if any.......Anyhoos after all that number crunching, I need a stiff drink & two aspirin for the brain ache....lol

Ah poop...after spending 30 mins working that lot out, I've realised that I've worked out the averages incorrectly.....I'll try again tomorrow, in the mean time, I shall put my dunce's cap on and go and sit in the corner and gibber away....

[Sprites]

If you read the torro annual reviews in the journal of meteorology, the thunder days total has in general decreased in the last 5-6years in most areas of the U.K. , however with the internet making it easy to track storms , the radar watching and hope-casting will increase the frustration of not getting a storm.

When we were not obsessively looking for storms in our childhood they would of seemed more frequent.