UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[Lynxus]

Just gone VERY dark around here...

[Andy Bown]

Something of a squall line has developed near the leading edge of the rainband in the last hour or so. As the main band is

moving gradually NE the squall line is running SE-NW within it, zoom to any BA postcode on the NW radar to see what I mean.

[Staffordshire]

Something of a squall line has developed near the leading edge of the rainband in the last hour or so. As the main band is

moving gradually NE the squall line is running SE-NW within it, zoom to any BA postcode on the NW radar to see what I mean.

just beat me to it andy! yes one in mid wales, and also in SE wales and the SW.... Edited June 14, 2012 by Staffordshire

[Supacell]

Tomorrow looks like it could get interesting for some. I won't go into the science because I don't understand it enough to explain (and Brickfielder has done it above much better than I could) but if everything falls into place there could be a chance of supercells with fairly large hail, frequent lightning, strong gusts of wind, torrential rain and even the odd tornado.

I have tomorrow afternoon off and so will look to chase if things are still looking as good in the morning. Unfortunately, as said above, these things normally downgrade closer to the time - i have my fingers crossed that they don't. Skywarn have a forecast out and I would expect torro to have something by tomorrow. I reckon worthy of an estofex level 1 too

Best areas at present... i have no idea lol. But, due to my living in Northern England I will be looking for the best area closest to me for a chase location. Problem with chasing could be the speed these cells will move though - find yourself behind one and catching it will be very hard without the use of a helicopter!

[SimonP]

ESTOFEX forecast is out and they've gone with a level 1 severe:

... UK, Scotland ...

Behind an E/NE-ward moving occlusion, a maritime air mass overspreads most of UK from SW to NE. With cold mid-level temperatures atop and placed beneath the left exit region of a strong 45 m/s 500 hPa streak, scattered deep convection is anticipated mainly between 9 and 21 UTC. Overlap of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25 m/s DLS (increasing from NW to SE), a few well organized multicell events are forecast. Isolated large hail and strong to isolated severe wind gusts accompany strongest convection. Despite a somewhat marginal directional shear component in the lowest 1 to 2 km AGL, forecast 150 m^2/s^2 SRH-1 and any deviant storm motion provide adequate helicity for an isolated tornado event. Storms gradually diminish during the first night hours (also in line with faint warming of the mid-levels).

Edited June 14, 2012 by Mesocyclonic

[coffee lover]

Lightning now in the channel, loud thunder heard over the Tv...

[Southern Storm]

Lightning now in the channel, loud thunder heard over the Tv...

I can confirm this, seems to be a one off though.

[slb97]

Lightning now in the channel, loud thunder heard over the Tv...

I thought I heard something thunder like but put it down to a lorry or similar, maybe it was then although I didn't think anything thundery was forecast.

Edited June 14, 2012 by slb97

[Muffelchen]

It looks to be getting really interesting - lots of bright echoes as things seem to be breaking up into discrete cells over the Channel and now heading to the South Coast. Are these developing along the occluded front or in parallel lines?

[Lynxus]

OMG RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP ! Wooooop Woooooooop

Just seen sferics, Just came to this forum, Seen level1 ( in an odd position... But ill let it slip.. )

EXPLODES! In exitement.

jbdvaip;uvfdv a BAng

[coffee lover]

I can confirm this, seems to be a one off though.

Seen several flashes now.

[Lewis]

Anyone in the East Yorkshire area that wants to chase tomorrow hit me up: info@designhull.com or add me to facebook

http://www.facebook.com/eastyorksforecaster

I'm back on the road! so more chasing to come =D

[viking_smb]

OMG RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP ! Wooooop Woooooooop

Just seen sferics, Just came to this forum, Seen level1 ( in an odd position... But ill let it slip.. )

EXPLODES! In exitement.

jbdvaip;uvfdv a BAng

any thunder?

[Lynxus]

any thunder?

Oh god no.

But the radars are looking lovely. So fingers crossed for the next 24hrs.

[viking_smb]

thats ok, you had me worried for a second.

[MP-R]

It would be just my luck that something will arrive tomorrow as I'm in Cardiff for the day for work. Best of luck to everyone though - the weather forecast looked no different to any other convective day we've had so far this year with showers moving through pretty quickly on a brisk wind but some very hefty downpours will be had for some.

[Nick F]

First UK storm forecast since back from 2 weeks of storm chasing in the US mid-west. Not expecting anything like we saw in the Plains tomorrow, but the parameters for severe weather look eye-catching nonetheless - with a strong jet. vertical shear and instability overalpping across S, central and E England.

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 14/06/2012 22:00

Click for full size

Valid: 15/05/2012 06:00 - 16/05/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Deep upper trough and accompanying intense upper-level jet moving in from the Atlantic has spawned an unseasonably deep low (circa 985mb) to the SW of the BI this evening. This low will drift NE to be invof SW Rep. of Ireland at 12z Friday - with wrap around occlusion across Eire, occluded frontal zone across southern Scotland an unstable rPm SSW flow across England & Wales.

... E WALES, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E and CENTRAL S ENGLAND...

A moist SSW flow will be present at the surface on Friday while colder air at mid-levels spreads in from cold upper trough to the W (500mb temps falling to AOB -20C) - which will allow low-mid level lapse rates to steepen ... with GFS indicating 300-700 j/kg CAPE to develop broadly across England and into E Wales by the afternoon. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will therefore likely develop across England and E Wales in response to steepening lapse rates, solar heating and forcing likely from a shortwave trough or two moving through in the strong upper southwesterly flow. 500mb winds approach 70-80 knts towards SE England coupled with fairly strong vertical shear in the lowest 6km (30-60knts) - will favour storms to develop into bowing line segments or even one or two supcercells - given sufficient instability indicated by models. Such storms maybe capable of damaging wind gusts, moderate size hail, torrential rain, CG lightning ... and possibly one or two tornadoes - especially across S/central/E England - where vertical shear, low LCLs, dry mid-level incursion and backing surface winds will be most favorable for rotating updrafts into any storms. There is some question marks though on extent of this severe threat across England given possible frontal development towards SE England in the afternoon which could hamper convective development here - with a more narrow corridor of severe convective potential possible from SW/Central-S England towards Midlands/E England as a result. Storms will be driven by diurnal heating, so should fade after dark.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

[Lewis]

First UK storm forecast since back from 2 weeks of storm chasing in the US mid-west. Not expecting anything like we saw in the Plains tomorrow, but the parameters for severe weather look eye-catching nonetheless - with a strong jet. vertical shear and instability overalpping across S, central and E England.

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 14/06/2012 22:00

Click for full size

Valid: 15/05/2012 06:00 - 16/05/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Deep upper trough and accompanying intense upper-level jet moving in from the Atlantic has spawned an unseasonably deep low (circa 985mb) to the SW of the BI this evening. This low will drift NE to be invof SW Rep. of Ireland at 12z Friday - with wrap around occlusion across Eire, occluded frontal zone across southern Scotland an unstable rPm SSW flow across England & Wales.

... E WALES, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E and CENTRAL S ENGLAND...

A moist SSW flow will be present at the surface on Friday while colder air at mid-levels spreads in from cold upper trough to the W (500mb temps falling to AOB -20C) - which will allow low-mid level lapse rates to steepen ... with GFS indicating 300-700 j/kg CAPE to develop broadly across England and into E Wales by the afternoon. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will therefore likely develop across England and E Wales in response to steepening lapse rates, solar heating and forcing likely from a shortwave trough or two moving through in the strong upper southwesterly flow. 500mb winds approach 70-80 knts towards SE England coupled with fairly strong vertical shear in the lowest 6km (30-60knts) - will favour storms to develop into bowing line segments or even one or two supcercells - given sufficient instability indicated by models. Such storms maybe capable of damaging wind gusts, moderate size hail, torrential rain, CG lightning ... and possibly one or two tornadoes - especially across S/central/E England - where vertical shear, low LCLs, dry mid-level incursion and backing surface winds will be most favorable for rotating updrafts into any storms. There is some question marks though on extent of this severe threat across England given possible frontal development towards SE England in the afternoon which could hamper convective development here - with a more narrow corridor of severe convective potential possible from SW/Central-S England towards Midlands/E England as a result. Storms will be driven by diurnal heating, so should fade after dark.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

Thanks Nick for such an informative read.

Hope you had a good time in the states, would be nice to see the UK get some severe thunderstorms tomorrow, I have a funny feeling that Lincolnshire is the place to be tomorrow, so I think i'm going to position myself further South tomorrow, whilst avoiding the A15!

Lewis

Edited June 14, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Lynxus]

Just out of sheer bordum.

I was looking at the radar echos and traced them back to here:

https://maps.google....ed Kingdom&z=18

Im pretty sure that white dot is the metoffice radar that they use at this location.

Cool aye

Edit:

Better view : https://maps.google.com/maps?q=chenies&hl=en&ll=51.689547,-0.529826&spn=0.002903,0.007274&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=59.769082,119.179687&t=m&hnear=Chenies,+Buckinghamshire,+United+Kingdom&z=18&layer=c&cbll=51.689547,-0.529826&panoid=DZuQImDdSruINs0Ftt_63w&cbp=12,266.25,,0,-1.52

Edited June 14, 2012 by Lynxus

[Darren Bown]

Good to see a decent amount of shear forecast for tomorrow. ESTOFEX have also picked up the potential across the UK for tomorrow.

PS what is the time frame for any potential tomorrow?

Edited June 14, 2012 by Dazmaster75

[Lewis]

Good to see a decent amount of shear forecast for tomorrow. ESTOFEX have also picked up the potential across the UK for tomorrow.

PS what is the time frame for any potential tomorrow?

Kicking off 9am onwards further south, and around 1pm onwards further north.

I've done a quick image below areas in the red greatest at risk of severe thunderstorms/tornado potential. Areas inside the black have the lower risk, but a general risk of localised thunderstorms.

[Darren Bown]

I'm probably just on the edge of any potential tomorrow as I will be closer to the main weather front. Will be interesting to see how the day plays out, though I am at work until 7pm

I'm probably just on the edge of any potential tomorrow as I will be closer to the main weather front. Will be interesting to see how the day plays out, though I am at work until 7pm

Kicking off 9am onwards further south, and around 1pm onwards further north.

I've done a quick image below areas in the red greatest at risk of severe thunderstorms/tornado potential. Areas inside the black have the lower risk, but a general risk of localised thunderstorms.

Oh and thanks for answering my question

[Chris K]

Well good luck to people tomorrow it sounds like it could be an interesting day for those looking for storms in some areas!

I'm not hopeful for here unfortunately due to various factors like wind direction, better CAPE/Li values forecast away from here etc, but who knows I may get very, very, very, very lucky.

[Robbie Garrett]

I just had a flash of lightning !!!

[A.J]

Thanks Nick for such an informative read.

Hope you had a good time in the states, would be nice to see the UK get some severe thunderstorms tomorrow, I have a funny feeling that Lincolnshire is the place to be tomorrow, so I think i'm going to position myself further South tomorrow, whilst avoiding the A15!

Lewis

Every time there's a convective forecast you have a 'funny feeling' that Lincolnshire is the place to be..lol.....Well, the law of averages says that one day you'll be spot on....lol.....whether or not it's tomorrow remains to be seen....if you're out and about chasing tomrrow, good luck matey....(I'm heading out towards Leicester tomorrow, it's as good as spot as any, me thinks)

Edited June 14, 2012 by ajpoolshark