UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[Phil UK]

And here in sunny Solihull, convection looks to be kicking off already and it isn't even 9:30am yet.

Could bode well for an interesting mid/late afternoon and evening, but I agree with Coast that the further south west you are, the more likely a chance of torrential downpours/thunderstorms. Will keep you posted.

Phil.

[Bobby]

Just some fluffy cumulus here, early yet though. Plenty of sun though so hopefully that'll get the heating going.

[Erbyskerby]

Just had a solitary boom of thunder here - quite heavy rain at the mo. Radar shows a spate of heavy showers around us.

[Lynxus]

That anaprop is really annoying north of here.

Its been there all yesterday and today so far

[BrickFielder]

Slight risk of Thunderstorms today, mainly in the west.

Slight surface low pressure system/ trough developing over the UK (currently over Wales).

My suspicion is that any storms will develop close to the center of this feature as a band of cloud further out keeps temperatures down.

moderate rather than strong lapse rates mean wide spread storms are unlikely.

Some instability is available according to forecast skewT's although cloud tops might be a little limited.

Winds are generally light despite some curvature in the winds through the atmosphere so tornado risk would be minimal and limited probably to surface convergence areas.

Over all the risk of thunderstorms is low with the main risk heavy slow moving downpours. Hail cannot be ruled out but the zero degree isotherm is a little high.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had an absolutely torrential downpour here- thought I may hear some thunder but none was heard in the end.

[Cheshire Gap]

Just had an absolutely torrential downpour here- thought I may hear some thunder but none was heard in the end.

Agreed! Saw the the flash (so I thought) and that was a very loud lorry if it wasn't thunder

CG

[Cheshire Gap]

Further to the above...it is on the lightning detector...at 14.45 stuck just east of Crewe! Finally...the sweet smell of a storm

[TonyH]

Torrential shower here in Carmarthen , bet they miss my rain gauge again! Before this a warm sunny day.

Make that very torrential! Morrison car park awash after just 10 minutes of it.

[TonyH]

Incredible downpour must be half inch in 15 minutes so far. In Carmarthen not home.

[Marcus_surfer]

Nice day here up to 20c some very dark looking clouds looking north and towards Carmarthen

[TonyH]

Morrison's car park flooded.

[Coast]

Morrison's car park flooded.

Oh no!!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Agreed! Saw the the flash (so I thought) and that was a very loud lorry if it wasn't thunder

CG

Yes, after I posted I heard a rumble

[Andy Bown]

That anaprop is really annoying north of here.

Its been there all yesterday and today so far

It's annoying me too!

And now a genuine heavy shower has developed and is heading slowly NNW in the Cirencester area.

[twister2005]

looks like that shower is coming my way, getting dark

[twister2005]

here comes the rain !! quite big drops

[virtualsphere]

Torrential shower here in Carmarthen , bet they miss my rain gauge again! Before this a warm sunny day.

Make that very torrential! Morrison car park awash after just 10 minutes of it.

I was under that in work - when I got home 7 miles away my rain gauge was completely empty!

[TonyH]

Torrential shower in Carmarthen this afternoon, then a fine Cumulus street later on:

Daughter heard thunder from this in Lampeter 3 miles east of here just before 1800:

All missed here, less than 1mm today.

Edited June 13, 2012 by TonyH

[davehsug]

Torrential downpour either side of 4pm here. No thunder of course but very heavy rain indeed.

[TonyH]

I was under that in work - when I got home 7 miles away my rain gauge was completely empty!

Driving home there were no puddles just 2 miles north of Carmarthen.

[samadamsuk]

Hey all.

Torrential downpour just east of cirencester at 5.30 today - the sky seemed pretty stable at 4.30 with convective infil and an pbvious inversion, so quite suprising really

Cheers, Sam

[Coast]

Morning convection fans!

A quick round up from me wouldn't be complete without ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 14 Jun 2012 06:00 to Fri 15 Jun 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 13 Jun 2012 22:26

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Ahead of the central European long-wave trough, a strong SSWerly mid-level jet is still in place across eastern Europe. Another vort-max will travel north-eastward affecting the Ukraine/western Russia region. Farther west, the mid-level flow has weakened across the north Mediterranean. A short-wave trough will travel eastward during the period. Another trough will enter western Europe at Thursday.

Southern British Isles to northern France

Strong cyclogenesis is expected to the west of the British Isles at Thursday. Ahead of the low, a southerly flow and strong low-level vertical wind shear will evolve. Some storms may develop in the evening hours across northern France where low-level moisture is highest and CAPE is expected. These storms may produce a tornado given the strong LLS. Chance is rather limited, though. During the night, the cold front will cross the region from the west. Along the frontal rain band, some embedded convective cells are expected. The strong vertical wind shear could be beneficial for tornadoes, but bad timing and weak low-level buoyancy is expected to limit the potential.

The UK based, dedicated sites are not forecasting yet so here's a few pictures to peruse:

I guess this is potential activity ahead of the low piling in soon?

The jet looks like it drags things right up along the Channel:

A little bit of CAPE in the North West as the day wears on:

Rain incoming!!!

Maybe a possibility of a brief tornado in Ireland this afternoon?

Or even Wales?

Get ready again UK!!!

I don't think we will see much if any TStorm activity today, but that isn't the most interesting feature coming up in the next 48 hours........

[Lynxus]

Ill be glad when this rain gets here!

This hayfever is killing me!

[BrickFielder]

Slight chance of an enbedded thunderstorm in the frontal system crossing the UK overnight, with some southern counties looking most likely to see one. Not totally convinced about this.

Fax charts for tomorrow show a trough moving across the UK, with models currently showing moderate instability, for the first time this year moderately steep lapse rates, mid to upper level shear, strongish winds at 925hpa,so we have the signs of some isolated stronger storms tomorrow.

Lightning wizard charts are throwing up some possibilites for supercells and tornadoes, but I am not sure the low level wind shear will be there in the way needed. Still cloud bases are suggested to be quite low.

It is way too early and the situation dynamic to put any kind of forecast together and typically models downgrade these types of events as we get into the 24hr time frame. I do expect some more spring like fast moving storms coming up from the south west, possibly with elements of super cell structure. Low level winds could be quite high which I think limits instability and the updraft strengths to lift low level horrizontal vorticity. In other words tornadoes and very severe storms are unlikely ,although some flash flooding seems possible.

Worth a heads up even if the out look changes significantly in the mean time and don't be surprised if the currently forecasts areas of activity in the models shift.