UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[Methuselah]

Looks like the rain will intensify and move north into the night, Should make for some good rainfall totals by morning!

Aye, there's a considerable bank of blackness away to the SSE of here...

[Sainsbo]

So, a possible 80+mm of rain falling in a fairly short amount of time in the capital warrants only a Yellow Warning from the Met Office?

Just looked at the forecast assessment fromt the MetO, and all though the Impact is high, the Certainty is still low. I'm guessing that as it gets closer and they have a better idea of where the worst effected areas will be, they may upgrade to a Amber?

[The PIT]

That was after most of it had fallen, lol...before the heaviest rain began falling it was a 25-50mm warning

Nope before it even got there. Twas first thing in the morning around 06:00 when I heard it.Anyway showers still brewing around here will one decide to visit us?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

small heavy shower to the East of Stafford, shows up well on raintoday,

[Team Jo]

In SE London at the moment near crystal palace. Been raining steadily for the last couple of hours now. Very humid, wind has dropped considerably since this morning...

[GadgetWeatherFreak]

Large splodges of rain falling at a slow pace here, dark skys out to the channel and just rodded my drains in time by the looks of it, no lightning yet, this is reminicent of 1996, not the unblocking of drains though !

[DAVID SNOW]

Large splodges of rain falling at a slow pace here, dark skys out to the channel and just rodded my drains in time by the looks of it, no lightning yet, this is reminicent of 1996, not the unblocking of drains though !

A sunday in july 1996? cant remember the exact date,but had storms move up from the south .Great night.

FWIW, That was a proper spanish plume.

[Harry]

A sunday in july 1996? cant remember the exact date,but had storms move up from the south .Great night.

FWIW, That was a proper spanish plume.

Indeed..this is not quite the same setup lol...nevertheless potential for the odd rumble or two.

[Hurricane Debby]

We had this so called huge 'rain event' predicted only a few days ago which we all followed avidly, if you are like me, and turned into a 'damp squib' and now we have this ? Much more eventful and wet shall we say but was never predicted or forecast as much as the so called other event ?! Or is that just me ?

[tinybill]

http://europa.buienr...4888&lon=4.4192

some very heavy rain can see problems if we get this 85mm over night as the met office are saying

Edited June 10, 2012 by tinybill

[Aaron]

that shower is still ongoing here.. totally stalled.. have not checked my rainfall totals yet but some nearby locations reporting up to 25mm.

[Lewis]

If Harry and the pit re referring to the 2007 floods, it was 25-50mm of rain predicted over a large area 48 hours in advance, then a flash warning came in force at about 5:30-6am that morning warning of rainfall up to 100mm.

I'm 100% certain because me and my lass had a break up that night so i hit the southern comfort and I woke up and saw the heavy rain during early hours and knew it was serious rain, checked the forecast and teletext.

Edited June 10, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Im going with the NAE tonight...Looks like it's done a good job...

[camiscool]

Loosing intensity already

[Lewis]

Loosing intensity already

Give it chance lol, there's a trough pushing through during the early hours which will enhance the precipitation.

lewis

[Snowynorth]

Anybody noticed the radar over north west wales. Ive checked about 6 rainfall radars and all have huge amounts showing then they suddenly vanish!!! i could unerstand 1 radar having a blip but not 6!!!

[jamesbhx]

Its anaprop. Basically a radar artifact due to a variety of reasons. Usually these are removed automatically by radar processors but occasionally they find their way through. Essentially there is nothing there, its an error. RAF Valley are not reporting any precipitation at the moment so you can safely say there is nothing of note there.

[Eskimo]

Anybody noticed the radar over north west wales. Ive checked about 6 rainfall radars and all have huge amounts showing then they suddenly vanish!!! i could unerstand 1 radar having a blip but not 6!!!

Can be a hundred radar loops, if the satellite thinks there's precipitation but nothing is there then it will show anaprop.

[TonyH]

That was after most of it had fallen, lol...before the heaviest rain began falling it was a 25-50mm warning

100mm was forecast well before the event started.

[The PIT]

LOL Met office now predicting up to three inches of rain in parts of the South East.

[ZONE 51]

Does that include and top up what what we have had or is that whats to come?

imagine a slow moving thunderstorm!

Edited June 11, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Morning all and as we try to avert a water disaster here at work, I'll take 5 mins out to round up what other sites are saying about today's convective possibilities and that all important rain due here in the SE:

ESTOFEX, TORRO and UKASF have nothing but SkyWarn are on the case with this forecast:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #027

ISSUED: 0130Z MONDAY 11TH JUNE 2012 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WEST SUSSEX EAST SUSSEX SURREY KENT GTR LONDON BERKS BUCKS HANTS & IOW HERTS ESSEX

IN EFFECT UNTIL 2359Z MONDAY 11TH JUNE 2012

SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TRAVELLING THROUGH ENGLISH CHANNEL AND STALLING OCCLUSION

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...SURFACE FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

SEE WATCH #026 FOR DETAILS.

RECENT RADAR ACCUMULATIONS AND STATION OBSERVATIONS REPORT OVER 40MM IN PARTS OF WEST SUSSEX, WITH OVER 30MM IN NEIGHBOURING COUNTIES. WELL-PERFORMING MODEL OUTPUT HAS SUGGESTED A FURTHER 30-40MM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE SURFACE WATER AND GROUND SATURATION. FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RUN-OFF OF FURTHER PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH SHARP RIVER CATCHMENT FLOODING LIKELY. LOCATIONS WITH MAJORITY URBAN LAND USE ARE MOST AT RISK. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO.

21st OWS have something just skimming the SE coast:

GFS has the centre of the low over the SE midday and some very small amounts of CAPE :

Shear over Hants and Dorset:

Here's that rain!!!

Spout index looking strong in the SE coastal area:

A lot of moisture up there on the West side of the low:

So maybe a chance of a few isolated thundery spells today, but the rain is the big feature and quite a worry:

[Robbie Garrett]

No sure where LFB get there forecasts from, but maybe a glimmer of hope if you want stormy weather?

http://www.london-fire.gov.uk/news/LatestNewsReleases_Mon11June12E.asp

I suspect the Metoffice.

The capital’s firefighters are on flood alert after the Met Office issued a

severe weather warning for the capital today

. In some areas, the average rainfall for June fell in around 12 hours and thundery downpours are expected to continue into this evening.

[Team Jo]

Had about an hour- hour and a half respite from the rain, - it rained all night here.... now the sky looks very dark again.....

Looking forward to driving back to Essex in it! weeeee!

[Mesoscale]

no sun yet so I dont think storms will be on the cards.