UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[lfcdude]

Woah, must be bad. Do you have a link to a live cam to see this happening?

Nope but watch points west 2mor.. could be interesting video... as one got knocked down by a wave haha

[Convective]

Probability of lightning for today.

Possibility everywhere however the main area I would say is Northern England into Northeast Ireland and then up to Southern Scotland. The far North Midlands can't be ruled out aswell as far North Wales.

Edited June 7, 2012 by Convective

[matty40s]

well my boat is banging about for fun at the moment and it looks like the worst is still to hit.!!!!

[Slowpoke]

Makes a difference to be honest, it's quiet here in Blackpool and it's generally us that get the high winds. The low is positioned much further South than usual.

[Chris.R]

Yes it's strange, the rain stopped about 8 PM yesterday and it hasn't rained all night in-spite of the forecast saying it would. It's also very very calm with not a breath of wind at all!

[Chris.R]

Just heard 2 sferics on the radio. I would say they are about 20-50 miles away possibly to the south and probably CG strikes. Still calm and dry here.

[Coast]

Nothing showing on the detectors yet and nothing forecast for today. Keeping an eye out now in case a TStorm creeps up on us!!

[Guest QuantumSnow]

One old, lonely sferic detected near Bridgnorth.. own up, who's been playing with their Tesla coil?

Edited June 8, 2012 by QuantumSnow

[Lewis]

Afternoon storm lovers,

Not much in the way of a risk today for many areas, although a small window of opportunity for North Western areas, running through to central parts of Northern England, and possibly Eastern Counties of Yorkshire, and Northern Lincolnshire this afternoon.

We have low pressure in charge centered across Northern England.

Winds strengthening on it's southern edge gusting to 40-50mph for a time.

Below is the chart which shows some heavier pulses of rain/showers for Northern areas, and it also shows the cloud cover.

Temperatures expected to be around the 10-11c mark in the North West, slightly warmer as you head South Eastwards in to Yorkshire with expected temperatures to be around the 14-15c mark.

Surface temperatures around 10-13c for most, with some higher values creeping in to the pennine areas and Yorkshire

Dew point temperatures again 10-11c quite widely, higher values across Yorkshire

Now the all important "CAPE and LI Values chart"

The above chart shows some values across Yorkshire, and the far North West of England running in to Scotland.

Conclusion

With a lot of cloud cover, and lack of surface heating, thunderstorm development will be very low, although sharp showers may form for the above mentioned areas. If there's breaks in the cloud later this afternoon some sharp showers may form and become heavy and on the thundery side.

There is minimum energy out there, although being under lower pressure may enhance development for a time for the mentioned areas where conditions become favorable.

Over-all the risk of any severe thunderstorms is basically non existent, but there is a small risk of localised thundery showers.

Quick map below of the areas that may see something develop during the latter part of this afternoon;

Lewis

[Muffelchen]

It has been raining continuously now for about 21 hours although I have not checked how much has fallen. At times the rain has been very heavy and thundery. Getting home at 18:15 last night it was really black over Beverley and I was certain we were going to have thunder - it was very warm at the time. Still pretty warm at 14.1 degrees C so there is some energy in there, if the sun ever comes out.

Hints of June 25th 2007 at the monent although the rain is not as heavy but there are similarities......

[Lewis]

It has been raining continuously now for about 21 hours although I have not checked how much has fallen. At times the rain has been very heavy and thundery. Getting home at 18:15 last night it was really black over Beverley and I was certain we were going to have thunder - it was very warm at the time. Still pretty warm at 14.1 degrees C so there is some energy in there, if the sun ever comes out.

Hints of June 25th 2007 at the monent although the rain is not as heavy but there are similarities......

Hi Muff,

Certainly been a very wet and soggy 24 hours or so.

I was posting in the model output the other day and was comparing this month to that of 2007, I just hope to god we don't get it the same, I have a feeling we are going too see some very heavy spells of rain/wet weather over the coming couple of weeks.

Just looked at the radar now and there's a potent piece of precipitation heading your way or just about over you now, any thunder inside of that?

Regards

lewis

Edited June 8, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Bobby]

It has been raining continuously now for about 21 hours although I have not checked how much has fallen. At times the rain has been very heavy and thundery. Getting home at 18:15 last night it was really black over Beverley and I was certain we were going to have thunder - it was very warm at the time. Still pretty warm at 14.1 degrees C so there is some energy in there, if the sun ever comes out.

Hints of June 25th 2007 at the monent although the rain is not as heavy but there are similarities......

How much so far? 90mm and counting here, will hit 100mm soon for the 36 hour period, got to be near a record for June for here. The 2007 flood rains weren't as bad.

[Convective]

Another photo of the lightning from the storms over the Midlands the other day!

[Lewis]

Another photo of the lightning from the storms over the Midlands the other day!

Midlands? Looks more like Spain.

[Chris.R]

Am near Preston ATM and the sun has come out! A good sign. Lets get some insolation going.

[syncmaster]

Am near Preston ATM and the sun has come out! A good sign. Lets get some insolation going.

Insolation !!!!!

[Chris.R]

Yeah, insolation, when the sun heats the land causing convection. I might not have spelled it right though. Anyway, it's raining again now so it doesn't matter.

[Lewis]

Yeah, insolation, when the sun heats the land causing convection. I might not have spelled it right though. Anyway, it's raining again now so it doesn't matter.

I think you mean evaporation, the sun heats the land and water that's on the ground evaporates and then condenses forming water droplets/clouds, with rapid surface heating and other factors this aids rapid convection.

Evaporative cooling.

[Chris.R]

No, if you read some of the netweather storm forecasts then you will often see insolation referenced. It is surfice heating, but it is the actual process of heating the land by the sun that causes evapperation. It's hard to explain, but I am surtain that it exists. I'm sure Coast or Nick F etc will know.

[Muffelchen]

Finally it has stopped raining and the sun has been peeping out - the temp has now reached the dizzy heights of 14.8°C!!! Insolation not really taking place at the moment but there are a few convective dark cloud bases about.

In response to Lewis, no that heavier blob did not produce any thunder, sadly

As to rainfall Barb, so far over the last 24 hours 44mm. I am originally from Pembroke so know all about good ole Welsh rain! Here it is generally pretty dry - the last eighteen months being exceptionally so. The only caveat would be the wet spells in June 2007 and the last six weeks or so - reminds me of home

[Sainsbo]

Windspeed already dropping here now, with a max gust form this system a pathetic 35mph. And a total of 18mm or rain since yesterday morning, though I guess something could still happen, right?

[Andy Bown]

Windspeed already dropping here now, with a max gust form this system a pathetic 35mph. And a total of 18mm or rain since yesterday morning, though I guess something could still happen, right?

Where in Wiltshire are you?

[Sainsbo]

Swindon

[A.J]

No, if you read some of the netweather storm forecasts then you will often see insolation referenced. It is surfice heating, but it is the actual process of heating the land by the sun that causes evapperation. It's hard to explain, but I am surtain that it exists. I'm sure Coast or Nick F etc will know.

You're absolutely right Chris....The more widely used name(s) for insolation are daytime or diurnal solar heating, or in other words the amount of solar radiation received in a certain surface area and is calculated using the formula joules/mm^2

Edited June 8, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[syncmaster]

Yeah, insolation, when the sun heats the land causing convection. I might not have spelled it right though. Anyway, it's raining again now so it doesn't matter.

Thank you for the explanation not heard it called that before but it makes sense...