UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[Aaron]

The River Ouse in York is always bursting its banks, lol

[Thundery wintry showers]

Too far south for the likes of me Harry.. Anyway a Northeasterly breeze has returned to these parts scuppering any chance of convection along the coastal fringes...again..!!

As I noted in the "north of England thread" it's going to be an incredibly frustrating week here for me- sunshine and showers daily for many parts of the country but the wind remains off the North Sea throughout (from the N or NE until Wednesday, then from the SE) so coastal areas of Tyne and Wear should remain convection-free outside of the period 4-10am. In such situations it is often compounded by hearing about how my area is getting the best of the usable/settled weather.

[NL]

As I noted in the "north of England thread" it's going to be an incredibly frustrating week here for me- sunshine and showers daily for many parts of the country but the wind remains off the North Sea throughout (from the N or NE until Wednesday, then from the SE) so coastal areas of Tyne and Wear should remain convection-free outside of the period 4-10am. In such situations it is often compounded by hearing about how my area is getting the best of the usable/settled weather.

Me, you the same Ian, I feel so frustrated to see storms kicking off inland and for storm loving folk like us denied again... I keep threatening to move away from the coast but recent events (lost my father 8wks ago) have put a stop to any new location inland as my mother needs all the support she can get at the moment.

Just checked the radar and those showers are getting tantalizingly close to our location...

[Geordiesnow]

You got to remember however, they may look impressive on the radar but they tend to end up as moderate rain showers once they reached us or just turn into messy skies and then it just looks grey cool and wet.

Nothing more frustrating though having a storm overhead then low cloud ruining it. Its only the weather I suppose, luck of the draw I guess!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Wish I had been at my girlfriends house today in Warthill near York.

Her brother has put some pics on facebook...

Looks like more on the way too!

[peterf]

christ Mark! landed on ya feet there.she must be loaded lol.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

christ Mark! landed on ya feet there.she must be loaded lol.

Haha Peter, I wish!

This relationship has cost me a fortune, leaving my job, moving down here and being jobless for 10 months.

To add to all that my car cost £405 to repair today, so I feel more like I've landed on another part of my body!

Anyway back on topic, looks like the same area could be in for more tomorrow, but maybe the risk extending a little further south according to the charts, so I'm hoping for something down here tomorrow.

[Alex95]

Torrential downpours today, with a couple of weak storms near Durham. About 5 rumbles in total. The second band further south looks stronger on the radar.

[peterf]

today showed great potential at times but it fizzeled and just dumped heavy showers.

[Cloud 10]

Stotting down here at the moment!

[Chris.R]

What you hear lightning as on the radio are called sferics or atmospherics, not sprites arn't they? I alwayse thought a sprite was something that was a type of lightning that came from the top of a CB.

[Supacell]

Thank you Muffelchen and MCT, I think I was just lucky with my prediction. Just wished I had gone out there myself but unfortunately it all happened just a little earlier than I had planned. Anyhows, good for those who saw a storm. I did think Beverley would be a good place today

Going to go look at some charts now and see if tomorrow is looking any good. I am hoping the risk moves a little west to flirt with my area but I am doubtful. Although Met Office seem to think its possible as I am under a yellow warning.

[Andy Bown]

Stotting down here at the moment!

Love that word, 'stotting' !

Is it a NE word?

[Cloud 10]

Love that word, 'stotting' !

Is it a NE word?

Not exclusively!

The Dialect Dictionary - Word Stotting - Language your way

[Muffelchen]

What you hear lightning as on the radio are called sferics or atmospherics, not sprites arn't they? I alwayse thought a sprite was something that was a type of lightning that came from the top of a CB.

Chris, yes they are (atmo)sferics but in the States they have always called them sprites: long before what we now know as sprites were observed above violent thunderstorms. I still use the term because I am ancient

Stotting is a word they use a lot in Scotland. I have not read the dictionary entry but I seem to remember from my old lectures that it is what animals like antelope do to show off to predators, such as lions, that they are too fit to chase.

That line of showers/thunderstorms fizzled out after so that was all the thunder we had for today - I am not complaiing by the way Let's see what tomorrow will bring - any predictions Supacell?

[samadamsuk]

You'd think that just once this summer we could have a low sit west of us and not on top of us - it's my birthday on the 15th, and ALL I want is that low to be a couple of hundred miles further west and a few juicy supercells under the jet .. that's all I ask!

[Supacell]

That line of showers/thunderstorms fizzled out after so that was all the thunder we had for today - I am not complaiing by the way Let's see what tomorrow will bring - any predictions Supacell?

If I am honest I do not see a very good chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. The BBC are using the word, as are the met office but I am not seeing any indications in the charts unfortunately

I am hoping that things may look better by tomorrow but for now my prediction (and I am no expert) is that there will be a number of heavy showers across similar areas that saw them today but expanding a little further south and west (so West and South Yorkshire in the frame too) but not much if any thundery activity.

Edited June 9, 2012 by Supacell

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

As Supacell has said, chances for storms look a bit limited, but wind convergence looks good and high res NNM charts show showers developing in a similar area to today...

I would like to be able to understand the skew-t charts but still cannot grasp them, if there is no cap to limit the cloud tops then I think storms could develop in similar areas to today with the help of convergence, but I'm not really sure about possible capping and upper temps etc.

I have done a little prediction below, don't take it too seriously, just done it mainly because I'm bored rather than having vast knowledge!

Red area

I would expect showers to get going fairly early in these areas, by around 11am, starting towards the north of the area and extending further south to cover most of the red area by 1-2pm.

Possibly less organised than today's impressive line through Yorkshire, and moving in more of an easterly direction than today's storms which moved south east. Lightning strikes will likely be more isolated and fewer than today's, and more likely in the southern half of the red area. Showers continuing until evening but any lightning activity fading by around 6-7pm.

Orange area

High res charts break out some showers later in the afternoon in this area, and there's some good wind convergence. Cape/Li values improve slightly in this area as the afternoon goes on too. I would guess showers won't get going until around 3pm in this area, and with less intensity than the red area, with only a small chance of the odd weak t-storm from about 4-8pm.

That's my novice effort for Sunday. Let's see what happens!

Edited June 9, 2012 by multi cellular thunderstorm

[ZONE 51]

Well it is looking interesting..

What we have here is not only the storm risk stated by the above poster for sunday, but now for some in the SE tonight!

the yellow here indicates unstable air, il leave it to others to takes a closer look at this, but thundery stuff could be for some in the south tonight! and even monday

Edited June 10, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have all the action on the wrong side of the Channel today, a brief check in from me here and I think that may be the case:

[NUT]

Not sure what risk of a storm we got here today but I tell you what the rain is pretty heavy here just now.

[Lynxus]

Awesome towers going up. Lovely heating but it does all seem a little capped.

Not sure what the Cin's like today?

Would be nice to see something but i fear there may only be one or two isolated heavy showers.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Showers are very slow moving on the radar, some parts are stationary near the Pennines.

If these showers form a little further south towards York then there could be more localised flooding in that area after yesterdays deluge.

It looks like river levels peaked this morning on the Ouse, and it didn't burst it's banks.

More slow moving downpours in the same area today and it might just flood the riverside area in York.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120701.aspx?stationId=8208

No sign of sferics yet...

[sunny scunny]

Torrential rain here with lots of convection about.

[aggy]

thunder here in glasgow