UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>

[NUT]

Looking pretty lively in ireland already according to radar

[Neilsouth]

What an absolute (insert swear here)...Dude some people have lost everything and all you can do is mock? I hope it happens to you some day, they we can laugh at your misfortune.

It will be interesting if anything is about today, I don't see it msyelf...will probably all happen Sunday for cosford air show

Actually I had replied with a constructive post but a moderator had removed it to make it look better for himself, this forum is known for that

Look i'm sorry what had happened nobody should be flooded out it's their livelyhoods , at the time I didn't know about all the flooding just I thought it was funny they had the rain for a change but Coasts sarcastic reply was met with one back!.

I would recommend if an area does live near a river or starts to get alot of water coming in, ALWAYS try as quick as possible to get sandbags don't leave it till it floods you out

Edited June 12, 2012 by Victor Meldrew

[philglossop]

The cloud is trying to break but there's clearly cloud elevation going on.

[Marcus_surfer]

Skies looking quite thundery with some breaks hopefully something later this afternoon

[Lynxus]

Skies looking quite thundery with some breaks hopefully something later this afternoon

Im pretty sure the "heavy stuff" is due to hit in the latter part of the day / overnight / tomorrow.

So yeah. Fingers crossed. May get some thunder.

Not like wales needs any more rain

[philglossop]

Just had a text from a mate saying its rumbling in Plymouth City centre.

[philglossop]

Liking the radar for us. The showers are building nicely over Bodmin/Dartmoor and drifting south east.plenty of time yet!

[philglossop]

Well its been raining here for a about an hour heavily at times, but nothing on the thunderfront yet. Mind you that looks like a developing situation on west Dartmoor on the Met Office radar.

Edited June 12, 2012 by philglossop

[Phelpsy]

Looks quite thundery around here atm

[Lynxus]

Looks quite thundery around here atm

Not getting my hopes up though.

I think we are too far east for a change.. Normally too far west haha

Although maybe if i spend the evening in the pub garden it will bring on some rain.... Hmmm

Seems like my ONLY! choice is to go to the pub after work. Shame

Edited June 12, 2012 by Lynxus

[philglossop]

Getting very very humid here, the suns out, but looking darker towards Tavistock and the moors. Ah the advantages to have a pub at the top of a hill!

[Bobby]

Very dark stormy skies here moving in, wind picking up too with a few spots of rain starting.

Met office have a severe weather warning out for SW England and Wales for today and tomorrow with the showers intensifying and becoming more widespread overnight and into tomorrow.

[Chris K]

Not getting my hopes up though.

I think we are too far east for a change.. Normally too far west haha

Although maybe if i spend the evening in the pub garden it will bring on some rain.... Hmmm

Seems like my ONLY! choice is to go to the pub after work. Shame

Better chance of catching a thundery shower tomorrow I think. (We can hope anyway)

[Evening thunder]

Well pretty much zero chance of anything interesting happening here - as per usual.

A ruddy sea breeze here has dropped the temperature to a chilly 13.9C with not a convective cloud in sight, apart from to the NE where it will drift away. Only other cloud is spread out mid-level cloud from decaying stuff which is where any precipitation will probably come from..

[philglossop]

Bucketing it down here at the mo!

[MP-R]

A very pleasant evening here after a lovely afternoon - air feeling cool too. Can't believe there's actually thundery activity around. Tomorrow looks better but don't want it tomorrow due to a garden party being held in the afternoon.

[philglossop]

Suns back out- not looking promising now here- always tomorrow!!

[Phil UK]

You know, I have come up with this conclusion in which I think most if not all will agree up to now. (And probably beyond...)

Phil.

[TonyH]

Caught in a torrential thundery looking shower 2 miles south of here late afternoon. Then this evening a very slow moving one just NE and east of here for the past 2 hours, now it's almost arrived it's died a death! No TL.

[TonyH]

However the outflow has spawned another cell, this time a few miles SW! In the middle raining lightly.

[Marcus_surfer]

Expected some heavy showers today all we got was some moderate bursts of rain at best for about 5 minutes

[ZONE 51]

Risk of Heavy Downpours and Thunderstorms in Western areas, and heavy downpours in other places to, i have created a map to show where i expect the storms, Wales and the SW and Ireland looking likely for storms today, i would expect some flash floods today.

[Coast]

Kicking off with ESTOFEX this morning as usual and they have a faint area in the W/SW that they think has a very slight risk:

No comments specific to the UK, but a general one that kind of applies to us:

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern over Europe continues with a large long-wave trough stretching over Nortwestern and western half of Central Europe and de-amplifying during the forecast period.

SkyWarn the only UK based, dedicated storm site that are forecasting so far today:

Last Update: 2230UTC Tuesday 12th June 2012

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #028

ISSUED: 2230UTC TUESDAY 12TH JUNE 2012 (GS/SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES SOUTHWEST ENGLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND WEST MIDLANDS NORTHERN IRELAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0900UTC UNTIL 2359UTC WEDNESDAY 13TH JUNE 2012

SHALLOW LOW DEVELOPMENT PROMOTING INSTABILITY IN A SLACK WIND REGIME

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...LOCALISED FLOODING...HAIL...LIGHTNING...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS, A SHALLOW LOW DEVELOPS BENEATH A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH GENERATING MODERATE INSTABILITY, TRIGGERED MAINLY BY HIGH GROUND GIVEN WEAK OVERALL FLOW. WARM, MOIST AIR FEEDING FROM THE NEARBY CONTINENT SHOULD AID CONTINUOUS BUT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION PERHAPS SUCCESSIVELY OVER SOME AREAS OF THE WATCH, POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING DISRUPTIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ESTIMATES SUGGEST 40MM OVER THE COURSE OF 24HRS IS POSSIBLE, WITH MODERATE-SIZED HAIL AND PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO A CONCERN. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT BRIEF FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND/OR WEAK TORNADOES. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Here are a few, or more of the charts from some applicable sources:

There appears to be some CAPE available in North Wales this afternoon, with a little less across more widespread western areas :

Shear and convergence, again mostly confined to North Wales but also through Yorkshire later:

Rain again in Wales:

Potential spout activity also in Wales and a lot more in Western Ireland:

Lapse rates down in the South ?

With some shear as well:

MCS propagation in the West:

What do we think to a bit of potential for a thunderstorm in North Wales and the surrounding areas to the East later on then????

[Coast]

Looking slightly further ahead, the next few days remain unsettled with a low possibility of storms, but from around next Tuesday the storm potential seems to recede in the South, with some chances still the further North you are:

[Lynxus]

Well,

Fingers crossed for today.

Not much going on in the forum.. Not a good sign.

Nothing on the local weather forecast.

Charts dont seem to indicate much in the way of storms.

Who knows