Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

[twister2005]

Could north glos see something today going to be a close one ¡¡

[picog]

Must be i the centre of the storm. Hail, torrential rain like nothing on earth, continuos thunder and lightening. Good luck all!

[Alex95]

Don't understand why Carol K (or any other forecaster) never mentions the "T-word" as well as the t-storms and large hail. In the US they're more upfront about it, even if its just a low chance. I suppose people in this country would just panic.

Actually, she said "severe thunderstorms with large hail" in N England and the Midlands this afternoon.

Sporadic lightning in the Irish Sea again - certainly no daytime heating there. The cold front will probably go bang as it pushes eastwards later, hopefully on the back of homegrown storms.

Edited June 28, 2012 by Alza

[AWD]

Nothing coming into the South West or the West Country so it looks like Ian was right on this one.

Different story just over the bridge though, some maooosive storms breaking out over the Breacons heading NNE, looks like areas in the NW could do good this morning!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Seems a little rain fell with those storms last night in Cork...

Yes, some light drizzle looking at the radar

[SalopWatcher]

Wow, the distant thunder is constant... seen a flash in the distance (well more so because its gone really dark here). All I can say is if you in that, good luck to you.

[Phelpsy]

Just seen blitzortung, I'm so jealous! I'm in the sun had nothing here, but can the stormy grey skies to me left of here, looking dark to the south, is this stuff slow moving today?

[weatherobsuk]

If this was the states now there'd be continuous coverage across one of the main stations. Unfortunately we simply don't get the same annual life-threatening weather (in the same sense of F3-F5 Tornadoes and hail threat) that warrants such funding towards similar coverage here. There is however the Met Office & privatised output but these are solely reliant upon interpretation of both the forecaster and reader.

[Dan the Man]

Actually, she said "severe thunderstorms with large hail" in N England and the Midlands this afternoon.

Sporadic lightning in the Irish Sea again - certainly no daytime heating there. The cold front will probably go bang as it pushes eastwards later, hopefully on the back of homegrown storms.

I was on about tornado, not thunderstorms actually!

[tara303]

Sorry if anyone has asked before, but what are the chances for us west london surrey borders types??? i.e. do I go to the post office to collect a parcel this morning, or stay glued to radar????!!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

If this was the states now there'd be continuous coverage across one of the main stations. Unfortunately we simply don't get the same annual life-threatening weather (in the same sense of F3-F5 Tornadoes and hail threat) that warrants such funding towards similar coverage here. There is however the Met Office & privatised output but these are solely reliant upon interpretation of both the forecaster and reader.

I think you are being a bit OTT there.

Some of you guys on here would have had the Tornado sirens blaring out since Monday in anticipation of this event

Sorry if anyone has asked before, but what are the chances for us west london surrey borders types??? i.e. do I go to the post office to collect a parcel this morning, or stay glued to radar????!!!!

Post Office.

[Dan the Man]

Looks like Ludlow is getting an absolute battering at the moment.

[Jane Louise]

Tornado anyone?

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2012/004

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0740GMT on Thursday 28th June 2012

Valid from/until: 0740 - 2000GMT on Thursday 28th June 2012, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Wales

Midlands

E Anglia

N England

Southern and central Scotland

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 40mm diameter; wind gusts to 65mph; Frequent CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Plume of high theta-w air has advected across much of Britain overnight with a large upper trough approaching from the west. At the surface, a cold front will move north-eastwards through the day.

Diffluent upper flow ahead of the trough is bringing forcing for ascent across portions of Wales already, and a number of thunderstorms have developed. At this stage they are likely marginally elevated above a coolish boundary layer, but strong cloud-layer shear suggests large hail to 20-30mm is possible with this early activity, with elevated supercells possible, with clusters of storms are likely. Gusty winds also possible.

This activity is expected to continue to move NNE and NE through this morning. Although there is a fair amount of mid-level cloud associated with the widespread large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, enough diurnal heating of the boundary layer is expected to allow storms to become surface based as the cluster of storms moves through the Midlands into N England, and later, Scotland. With 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, well-organised multicells and embedded supercell structures are likely. 20-30mm diameter hail and gusts to 60mph are possible. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible.

In the wake of this activity, and across the more south-eastern parts of the WATCH area, further thunderstorms are expected to develop and the move north-east, although these will be more isolated with south-eastern extent. Modified ascents for afternoon temperatures suggest around 1200-1800 J/Kg of SBCAPE. WIth 0-6km shear remaining around 40 knots, and perhaps increasing a little, well-organised multicells and isolated supercells seem possible. With 0-1km SREH of ~150 J/Kg and fairly low LCLS, a few tornadoes may develop with this activity. Indeed, should an isolated supercell develop in an area with decent surface heating, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Hail to 40mm or so and wind gusts to 65mph possible with supercells too; otherwise, 20-30mm hail and 55mph gusts. If this activity can develop into northern parts of England too, it may tend more towards a squall line, with an associated wind threat.

The activity will end from the south-west through the afternoon and evening as the cold front moves in.

Forecaster: RPK

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think you are being a bit OTT there.

Some of you guys on here would have had the Tornado sirens blaring out since Monday in anticipation of this event

Post Office.

Lol!

[A.J]

Yay!...just had the 1st intra cloud lightning bolt of the day and loud growl of thunder...

[Static Prevails]

Yay!...just had the 1st intra cloud lightning bolt of the day and loud growl of thunder...

Nice! Would you say this is heading my way, providing it doesn't fizzle out?

[Coast]

Tornado anyone?

http://www.torro.org...te/forecast.php

Yay at last, welcome to the storms guys!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yay!...just had the 1st intra cloud lightning bolt of the day and loud growl of thunder...

I want some!

[tara303]

Lol!

lol lol!

Off to the Post Office then! Oh well...........

[Paul Sherman]

What's your tor:con for today Paul? :-)

Lol - Dr Greg Forbes - Maybe 6/10 if a Surface Based Storm can get cranking

[Lynxus]

Ah well, Looks like all the activity will be just north of here lol

Good luck. Ill be keeping my eyes peeled and can only dream!

[Hodr]

Wow, just Wow...that is an absolute BEAST.

[A.J]

**lightning crawler alert** **lightning crawler alert**.....that was a beauty!.....almost constant low thunder to my west & south west....C'mon camera, charge dammit!!

[Cloudwatcher]

Anyone better informed and knowledgeable have an idea as to whether we will get any action up here today?

[PolarWarsaw]

ABSOLUTELY HUMDINGING CLOUD MOVING IN. Reckon your in a better position than me AJ - need a slightly more NE movement - not N.