Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

[Liam J]

Could any of it head my way Liam?

Also sferic activity has decreased in the last 10 minutes from the irish sea storm unfortunately.

Looks to be heading in a more northerly direction and likely end up into SW Scotland. The area seems to be expanding so something may develop yet, sferics decreased as you say.

[MP-R]

Well I didn't get excited therefore I am not disappointed. It's obviously rained overnight but it's a sunny morning and feeling very humid so now just have to wait for the cold front to go through.

[Chris.R]

Thanks Liam. BTW the met office actually use the phraze thunderstorms in playces in their forecast. I've never seen that before!

[ZONE 51]

All 00z-latest updates

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Edited June 28, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Paul Sherman]

Very Impressive set of parameters for the Uk and something I spoke with Nick F About whilst chasing 3 weeks back. Had a hunch the Uk would see a Set-Up like this for 2012.

If these parameters were in front of the SPC I am sure a low end Moderate or High end Slight Risk would be on the table right now.

Somewhere from N Cambs through Lincs upto the Humber could very well see a Strong Tornado should a Supercell develop today, good upper flow (enough for a Supercell at 30-35kts) is present, decent Cape of 1,750jkg and very good LCL's all there. Add into that a possible 82/70f around those parts and you have the ingredients for something impressive.

Good luck to all who go out there and remember Storm Motions could be quite fast so position accordingly.

Regards

Paul S

[john175]

morning all, hope everyone is well. not getting my hopes up for today,even though the forecast for my area is for thunderstorms this afternoon. noticed that nice cluster of activity just of the Irish coast, ive just come off night shift but think i will stay up to see if it has my name on it, looks slightly promising

anyway good luck today guys

[Weather-history]

Some heavy echoes near Abergavenny area of SE Wales

[sparky1972]

good morning everyone, very cloudy and does not feel overly humid, bit of rain early this morning, fingers crossed that the sun makes an apperance and sends the temps high enough that we might see a storm or two. good luck to all.

[Supacell]

It is looking really good today and i look forward to the convective forecast from netweather

I am thinking of positioning myself somewhere between Scunny and Lincoln. I realise that i may not need to travel this far to see a storm today but my idea is that the further east i am, the less likelihood of something kicking off to my east and then racing away before i can catch it. I am also of the mindset that anything which does develop will sustain itself for a long time and therefore if it fires well to my west i can attempt to intercept.

A couple of questions for our experts though. Could there also be the possibility of new storm cells developing in the outflow of other storms?

A concern for me is the cloud cover. It is very cloudy/foggy here. Will cloud cover stop storms from developing today?

Edited June 28, 2012 by Supacell

[weatherobsuk]

Glad I finally went to sleep for 5 hours, just looking at the sferics coming out of s.Wales which is encouraging already given it looks to be formed in a region of clearer sky behind the Irish Sea MCS and enough outflow from this has created the right conditions to advect forcing. Going to be a interesting 3 hours to come this morning.

[Lt. Dan]

Somewhere from N Cambs through Lincs upto the Humber could very well see a Strong Tornado should a Supercell develop today, good upper flow (enough for a Supercell at 30-35kts) is present, decent Cape of 1,750jkg and very good LCL's all there. Add into that a possible 82/70f around those parts and you have the ingredients for something impressive.

Regards

Paul S

What's your tor:con for today Paul? :-)

[ardsar]

Some heavy echoes near Abergavenny area of SE Wales

Morning all. A quiet night around the southwest. Looking at the lightning data, there have been some fairly beefy storms, but unfortunately not over the UK. South wales as mentioned earlier seems to be developing something. Link to website in signature.

[Aaron]

It is looking really good today and i look forward to the convective forecast from netweather

I am thinking of positioning myself somewhere between Scunny and Lincoln. I realise that i may not need to travel this far to see a storm today but my idea is that the further east i am, the less likelihood of something kicking off to my east and then racing away before i can catch it. I am also of the mindset that anything which does develop will sustain itself for a long time and therefore if it fires well to my west i can attempt to intercept.

A couple of questions for our experts though. Could there also be the possibility of new storm cells developing in the outflow of other storms?

A concern for me is the cloud cover. It is very cloudy/foggy here. Will cloud cover stop storms from developing today?

Met and BBC forecasts don't show much sunshine anywhere away from southern England..

Anyway yesterday was similar, foggy start, cleared away and to be replaced with sunny spells with temperatures reaching 24C

Edited June 28, 2012 by Aaron

[samadamsuk]

Morning all.

Those cells over south wales look like they mean business!

[Coast]

Morning all!!!

Warm and muggy here with a dew point of 14°C and humidity 87% already. Feels stormy but I haven't looked at any charts or radar yet. Be back in a mo with some round-ups

[Weather-history]

A very heavy shower just started here

[Arnie Pie]

never thought i would be saying this

The cells coming from S Wales are not East enough for Birmingham....Good for the more Westerly members of the area i suspect.....maybe

Edited June 28, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[samadamsuk]

Hi Arnie - that's if they dont turn into supercells and start right moving !

Sam

[Staffordshire]

never thought i would be saying this

The cells coming from S Wales are not East enough for Birmingham....Good for the more Westerly members of the area i suspect.....maybe

utterly ridiculous! oh well i spose staying up till 1 and getting up at 7 will put me in rigbt mimdset for today! let the storms commence, my bet is MCS effecting lincoln!

[Arnie Pie]

Hi Arnie - that's if they dont turn into supercells and start right moving !

Sam

You mean the start of El Brumo

Edit; Have a cup of coffee Staffy and get your camera ready

Edited June 28, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Supacell]

Met and BBC forecasts don't show much sunshine anywhere away from southern England..

Anyway yesterday was similar, foggy start, cleared away and to be replaced with sunny spells with temperatures reaching 24C

True. And despite the fog it is still very warm

[Herefordweather]

So close to that monstor cell across South Wales but its tracking just west of me. Hopefully something develops right over me. Can see lightning in distant mind you!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Morning all 17C, the overnight light rain has cleared and the sun's out

Phasers on stun....good luck.....Kirk out.....

[Chris.R]

there's something big somewhere. Can hear sferics every second about 100-200 miles away.

[Alex95]

17C after a wet night. It's quite murky now - that second lot over the Irish Sea probably needs to move through before any home grown convection gets going.