Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

[P-M]

A level 1 was issued for portions of the northern British Isles mainly for tornadoes. WOnders never cease I am really excited now like...... Along with the Level 1 for large hail!!!!!!!!!!

[Paul R]

Moderate rain on the go in Cardiff. Not anticipating anything thundery until after 3-4am here. A thundery breakfast may be likely...

[NL]

ESTOFEX full forecast..

http://www.estofex.org/

[Staffordshire]

In that case, I'll join you for a bit...hang on, I'll just pull up a chair, and grab a beer ........

i hope three isnt a crowd?!

[Evening thunder]

That forecast would of probably been recorded before the latest UKMO model runs that Ian Fergusson was on about, came out.

Therefore the probably ain't got the latest data yet!

Possibly, But I think BBC Spotlight is live and if so the forecast is always live as the presenters have a mini conversation with the forecaster and it seems very 'live'. Also I think the earlier UKMO runs they were talking about were pretty much the same as the latest ones.

It's just ith current charts/satellite etc I struggle to see how there's no potential (or maybe partly don't want to believe that), but then I guess as it's post 2006 etc they're probably right..

[James Irwin]

http://www.estofex.org

level 2 now

[Bobby]

Some dark fairly stormy looking clouds were osbserved to the South just before it got dark and now it's starting to rain fairly heavily, hmmm. I also thought I saw a flash out of the corner of my eye, not sure what it was though.

[P-M]

Mind you even with the level 1 I still may see nothing as per a few weeks ago so its gonna be down to Nowcasting really as we all know. But a fair amount of the BI under a watch so good luck everyone!

http://www.estofex.org

level 2 now

Not for us though mate its for the continent.

[Evening thunder]

is that a level 4.....

Haha, I like that game!

Maybe that would work as a game.. Idea is to annoy British people! (general public British people not storm fans)

Edited June 27, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Kain]

In that case, I'll join you for a bit...hang on, I'll just pull up a chair, and grab a beer ........

A toast to El Brumo it is then mate

Looks like we might have some rain as that band hits us probably in around 60 - 90 mins on the NW Radar, just looks like steady rain though.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Kain

[Dean E]

Estofex bringing Southern Areas into play for the next 24 hours as well. Its not so confident though it seems...

[Argyllcraig]

some torrential rain over Glasgow tonight.. all that has been missing are the flashes and bangs.

radar suggests that its even worse just south of us.

[Eskimo]

"However, supercells are not ruled out especially across the eastern portions where larger hodographs will persist well into the afternoon hours ahead of the cold front."

[Aaron]

And the forecast from UKWW

Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers (though sparsely populated)UK & Ireland 03Z-19Z

Slight Risk of Elevated Storms 03Z-12Z Yellow Box

Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (Possible Supercell) NE UK 12Z-19Z Red Box

CONFIDENCE LEVEL; Medium

Probably not my speciality regarding this type of set up but here's my take. Pretty much agree with the two forecasts above so it is not necessary to elaborate too much with what has already been said. There are nevertheless a few additional point which particularly stand out for me. The past has shown me that the WRF might be more reliable than the GFS regarding such outlooks though I have tried to merge the two regarding considered zones for stronger potential. Earlier 1-8km DLS (Deep Layer Shear) was showing up to 50 kts. The last GFS run might now be suggesting even higher! This includes an increase of low level shear 0-3km within the red box zone. Forecast soundings for this region for mid afternoon take CAPE right up to the tropapause from surface. Both WRF and GFS are giving readings for Normalised Surface Solar Heating from mid day onwards East Midland where surface based storms are likely to initiate. Though as mentioned above this will be heavily dependent on how quickly the upper cloud moves away. The strong mid levels winds should achieve this.

With the most recent increase in shear at all levels we will have a defined risk of tornadoes occurring (possibly a strong tornado event) Though this detail will need to be looked at closer to the time!...All in all it is rare to see the models combine such strong shear with such strong instability. Similar past conditions can be associated with the Birmingham and London tornadoes.

[PolarWarsaw]

i hope three isnt a crowd?!

How about 4? Hope that rain peps up a little.

[A.J]

http://www.estofex.org

level 2 now

only for the Benelux countries....A good swathe of the UK is under a level 1 alert from thurs 06z to fri 06z

A toast to El Brumo it is then mate

Looks like we might have some rain as that band hits us probably in around 60 - 90 mins on the NW Radar, just looks like steady rain though.

Yes, ties in nicely with the estofex forecast progging initial stratiform convection during the first part of the night...tomorrow morning is where it gets interesting.....possible elevated thunderstorms moving up from France and if the timings are on our side then copious low level moisture advection may well allow elevated storms to root themselves into the boundary layer and tap into all that energy and go bang in a big way...fingers firmly crossed!

[Suffolk Weather]

Can't help but notice here in East Anglia, that we're now properly firing up for hopefully something eventful here according to the latest NMM. In Suffolk especially between 1-4pm we're hitting values of 2500 j/kg CAPE and Lifted Index's of around -5/-6 widely.

Anyone wish to interject with their views for E.A? Is mid afternoon potentially "big bang time?"

Edited June 27, 2012 by Suffolk Weather

[mac_]

Big storm approaching Antrim Town around 8pm this evening:

[Lewis]

Edited June 27, 2012 by Humber

[A.J]

Big storm approaching Antrim Town around 8pm this evening:

very good, excellent piccies, classic shelf cloud with the 'UFO' look about it and gust front

[Backtrack]

Thought it was thundering... seems some plonker was just putting the bin out. -.-

[Aaron]

Lol.. and the Met release a weather warning for a large chunk of the country

[Kain]

LMAO sorry I couldn't help it!

[Andy Pepler]

when that small front passes in the next 30 mins or so i am going to stand in it for a bit.. its like breathing in warm moist air outside ..so has anyone got a clue about my part of the woods ..west wiltshire ..got to say thou my stocks smell lovely

[Robbie Garrett]

I've not highlighted anything, however I have overlayed the Metoffice 1948z chart with the SAT24 reading about 1hour or so ago, but I am watching closely the secondary low looks to be spinning now, or should do soon, and should point that cloud this direction. But more so inline with Benelux.

The MetOffice has this trough joining with the just south of Ireland now.

Metoffice reckon pretty much most of England, with the first feature likely arriving early hours of this morning, with isolations of heavy thunderstorm and rain. CB's quite elevated at 07,000ft and 09,000ft. Nothing on the surface except far north east according to the F215, 2000 to 0500 UTC chart.

Give it a few hours, and things should start to come in line with expectations... or dissapointment.