Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

[lfcdude]

when that small front passes in the next 30 mins or so i am going to stand in it for a bit.. its like breathing in warm moist air outside ..so has anyone got a clue about my part of the woods ..west wiltshire ..got to say thou my stocks smell lovely

Im waiting for that... Hopefully we wont miss out over the next 36 hours

[Arnie Pie]

Is that some kind of squall line comimg across from S Wales?

and isn`t there a bit of lift & cape over our area

Edited June 27, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Eskimo]

I see the Metoffice have put warnings up for northern areas...which now means southern areas will bear the brunt

...i hope.

[slinky1989]

when that small front passes in the next 30 mins or so i am going to stand in it for a bit.. its like breathing in warm moist air outside ..so has anyone got a clue about my part of the woods ..west wiltshire ..got to say thou my stocks smell lovely

I work in Westbury and if it's still anything like it was earlier, I don't blame you for going out there! Bloody sweltering it was!

[mac_]

very good, excellent piccies, classic shelf cloud with the 'UFO' look about it and gust front

Thanks AJ......had some tremendous thunder and incredible rain..

Hopefully a taste of things to come tomorrow

[Chris.R]

Well that's the met on board so we can properly get excited now.

[SnowJoke]

Rain is slowly starting to pep up as it moves across towards the theta plume, evident in the last hour if you watch the rainfall radar.

[Aaron]

I see the Metoffice have put warnings up for northern areas...which now means southern areas will bear the brunt

...i hope.

The answer is no

[Kain]

Wish I had me own boat, and lived by the coast, would go out to that storm taking aim at the bristol channel (NW Radar)

[mac_]

Is that some kind of squall line comimg across from S Wales?

Certainly has potential!

[Kain]

Certainly has potential!

Yes Ive been watching that too, no sferics yet but if you watch the radar run, the line is certainly getting beefier!

[Lewis]

Just drawn on the map the areas that I think will see (Proper thunderstorms developing/MCS)

Other areas will have their activity from the cold front, but as the cold front moves through due to surface heating across the areas highlighted on the below map, it really will spark some big storms off.

For all areas ML cape is HIGH, but the highlighted areas get very high SB cape and a very negative lifted index, looking tasty for storms, I tell you now these are going to be bad boy storms, closest we'll get to the US.

[Andy Pepler]

the front is right above me and that is some big rain drops....its not heavy at all in frequency its just the rain drop size...

and it felt nice standing in shorts with the rain

[lfcdude]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

UKMO-UKV indicates CAPE reaching over 1500j/kg tomorrow by 1500z Nottingham area & 1800z Lincs; downdraft gusts to 50kts. Severe storms...

Jealous... Still dry in Devizes...Cant wait as Its to hot lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite a few new sferics in the Atlantic, South of Ireland and west of Scilly at present.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Blizzards

[mac_]

Met Eireann still going for t-storms in the latest forecast.....

"27 June 2012 22:27

Continuing warm and humid tonight and Thursday morning with further spells of heavy rain in many areas, thunderstorm activity and hail all leading to some flooding.

Temperatures not falling below 13 to 16 degrees."

[paul m]

I see the Metoffice have put warnings up for northern areas...which now means southern areas will bear the brunt

...i hope.

Stop being greedy lol..

[A.J]

Yes Ive been watching that too, no sferics yet but if you watch the radar run, the line is certainly getting beefier!

Ok, I've just plotted a few charts using the GFS/UKWW plotter and married these to the latest infra-red satellite imagery, and my take is that this line of interest is tapping into some moderate mixed-layer cape (a couple hundred j/kg) which is increasing as warm air advects northwards from France, and a little 4 layer bouyancy as well....Cloud tops though on the infra-red imagery are nothing special so it looks shallow convection currently, but mid-level lapse rates are steepening which might account for the increase in intensity of the ppn....I don't think it will be electrically active, but it's not out of the question

[Andy Pepler]

there is a lot of Tropospheric Ducting on vhf at the moment .its common with fronts with a strong thermal contrast and cold downdraughts associated with cumulonimbus clouds (indicated by heavy showers or thunderstorms) ..

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

UKMO-UKV indicates CAPE reaching over 1500j/kg tomorrow by 1500z Nottingham area & 1800z Lincs; downdraft gusts to 50kts. Severe storms...

Jealous... Still dry in Devizes...Cant wait as Its to hot lol

Sounds too good to be true! Maybe finally the move to Nottingham will pay off in terms of storms.

Camera batteries charged and I'll be ready to chase if I need to, but I can't go far because the olympic torch is passing here tomorrow and roads around here are closed from 4pm so traffic will be a nightmare, so I'm hoping for a direct hit.

I know I shouldn't get too excited but this feels like Christmas Eve.

[Eskimo]

Stop being greedy lol..

I live in North Herts and I have not even seen a single storm this year or last year, hard to believe really

[NUT]

Tremendous downpour here cutting off the sky signal

[Buzzit]

Tremendous downpour here cutting off the sky signal

the benefits of cable always shine through during a storm... I just hope I get some myself !

[Kain]

Ok, I've just plotted a few charts using the GFS/UKWW plotter and married these to the latest infra-red satellite imagery, and my take is that this line of interest is tapping into some moderate mixed-layer cape (a couple hundred j/kg) which is increasing as warm air advects northwards from France, and a little 4 layer bouyancy as well....Cloud tops though on the infra-red imagery are nothing special so it looks shallow convection currently, but mid-level lapse rates are steepening which might account for the increase in intensity of the ppn....I don't think it will be electrically active, but it's not out of the question

Nice, I was just looking on the infra radar and was a tad gutted it's only shallow convection.

Still look how its pepping up on the radar, I'm going to stand in it I think

[Evening thunder]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

UKMO-UKV indicates CAPE reaching over 1500j/kg tomorrow by 1500z Nottingham area & 1800z Lincs; downdraft gusts to 50kts. Severe storms...

Jealous... Still dry in Devizes...Cant wait as Its to hot lol

Similar to the ML CAPE the NMM and various models have been showing for here later tonight.. Of course storms like that would be impossible here though.

Met Eireann still going for t-storms in the latest forecast.....

"27 June 2012 22:27

Continuing warm and humid tonight and Thursday morning with further spells of heavy rain in many areas, thunderstorm activity and hail all leading to some flooding.

Temperatures not falling below 13 to 16 degrees."

Oh well at least they aren't scared of using that word. Met Office even just say 'Rain heavy and 'thundery' for a time' for NE England tomorrow..