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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

A storm will hit manchester and then pass me by to the north. Great! Is it that hard to get a storm around here?

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

If we're into naming these potentially stormy outbeaks, how about "El Camerono" followed by next Friday's installment of "El Diamondo". blum.gif

I say next Friday because these downpours are sooooo predictable.

The first signs are approaching East Anglia and the South East it seems.

I'm hoping it will go bang overnight and then the weekend could be part two for many.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

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Cloudwatcher Explorer

Cloudwatcher

Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester
Posted

A storm will hit manchester and then pass me by to the north. Great! Is it that hard to get a storm around here?

................................................................................................yes.

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Andy Pepler Enthusiast

Andy Pepler

Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
Posted

I would suggest that the heavy rain coming into Dorset/Hampshire is running along the Cold Front as is the line of showery rain sitting through Wales.

Pulses of rain will continue to move North along the front as it gradually eases Eastwards.

andy are we in the line for anything ...its feeling hotter than hell with this muggyness ? please say yes ...i dont think i could do a storm dance ..

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

i meant to say happy birthday to all birthday people today 5th july , i must be the oldest , at 60 .hope everyone gets a bit of tomorrows action and stay safe ,PS im on the red , we have some action aproaching the channel . bring it on ,cheers

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NW Leeds Russ Rookie

NW Leeds Russ

Posted
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
Posted

First major storm of the year in Morley Leeds and its a big one the streets look like rivers flooding all over by the looks of things crazy!!

Agreed. Great CG's and plenty of them of them in Pudsey..

Was watching from conservatory with Son 7 yo and he was getting well interested......biggrin.png

Was certainly not far from direct over here perhaps edging towards S Leeds...

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robt Contributor

robt

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
Posted

This was over Newark about 3 hours ago...

50dvO.jpg

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NW Leeds Russ Rookie

NW Leeds Russ

Posted
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
Posted

This was over Newark about 3 hours ago...

50dvO.jpg

I must say we are getting spoilt this year despite the rain with storms and incredible shots like this.......laugh.png fantastic...

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robt Contributor

robt

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
Posted

Nice shot!

I must say we are getting spoilt this year despite the rain with storms and incredible shots like this.......laugh.png fantastic...

Its not mine, its by David Martin, a friend of mine who was playing golf at the time.. :D

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Due to the relatively cold channel, that rain is finding it hard to leave France, the last few radar loops show it approaching the French coast and then dissipating as soon as it hits the water.

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Rainy Rookie

Rainy

Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
Posted

This was over Newark about 3 hours ago...

50dvO.jpg

Fabulous. What is / was it?
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Ladies & Gentlemen....I have an announcement to make......

'El Brumo II' is coming!!!

:lol:

Do you really think the thundery chances look good. I just see heavy rain tbh. :lol:

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

This courtesy of Paul-Michael on the MOD thread.

null ADVERSE WEATHER ADVISORY issued:

!! SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT - HEAVY SHOWERS & THUNDERY RAIN - Fri 6th July 2012 !! - North West England 60%, Northern England 80%, North East England 80%, Yorkshire 90%, Northumberland 80%, Cumbria 60%, Midlands 60%, North East Anglia 50%, South West 70%, S Wales 50% Elsewhere 40%

Thunderstorms have developed today across the expected areas of Northern England, and they will continue for a while this evening. A highly complex cut-off low circulation that has undergone weakening in the past 24 hours will spin back into East Anglia and much of Northern England in the next 24 hours as we approach Friday. Their is an increasing probability that the highest rainfall totals will be along the high theta-ew plume across Northern England, Yorkshire and the North East - however some high totals will also be possible across the North Midlands.

The next concern turns to the South West as model guidance continues to suggest cyclogenisis (strengthening) of the cut off low as the curculation crosses Central England and becomes stalled across the South West. This strengthening of the low and the stalling does mean that Devon and Cornwall need to be on an early alert for the potential of some high rainfall totals and resulting floods. As the low looks to intensify, their is also the additional threat of strong winds, perhaps gales with uprooting of trees a possibility. The rate of intensification and trajectory of the system is highly unpredictable and thus our confidence for South West England remains quite low. Their is certainly potential for some very severe weather though, locally extreme.

This severe weather could extend into Friday Night and Saturday Morning across the South West.

Some of the rain will be locally thundery with hail and torrential downpours across parts of South Wales, South West England and perhaps Central Southern England.

null Director/Forecaster AKA Thermohaline Conveyor

I have personally highlighted areas of the UK to which that particular warning applies. I have a GUT feeling that the movement of the circulation will be further south by 50 to 100 miles or so and is likely to produce more thunder than currently anticipated. Just a hunch so don't shoot the messenger!

What effect if any, will the arrival of this system being earlier than originally forecast have? Furthermore, the surface heating further south will encourage more intensification overnight into early morning, will it not?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted (edited)

Love that photo posted above, what a stunning contrast of colours.

andy are we in the line for anything ...its feeling hotter than hell with this muggyness ? please say yes ...i dont think i could do a storm dance ..

Not sure why you posted a quote from yesterday.

Anyway, on current forecasts the day will start dry tomorrow with showery rain arriving from the N/NE around 13.00-15.00. How heavy it will be I have

no idea, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the heaviest miss here by 50ish miles to the E / NE / N / NW then W !!

Edited by Andy Bown
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Mikel Nimbus Explorer

Mikel Nimbus

Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London
Posted (edited)

Fabulous. What is / was it?

I think it's a UFO. Shame there's all that cloud behind it making it harder to see.

Edited by Mikel Nimbus
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Wierd beard Rookie

Wierd beard

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, heat and storms in summer
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

hi everyone smile.png why is it that when there is low pressure to the north,the north gets all the exciting weather.And now there is low pressure to the south, the north still gets all the excitng weather pardon.gif

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

This was over Newark about 3 hours ago...

50dvO.jpg

Excellent shot! Is that a gust front? And is that a bug on your lense?

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Chris W Contributor

Chris W

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
Posted (edited)

It can't be, that storm has turned west and is about to enter Cheshire...clapping.gif Come on.

If the M6 kills this I'll be fuming.

Edited by Chris W
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Excellent shot! Is that a gust front? And is that a bug on your lense?

No, that's a UFO. Ask Yamkin?

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robt Contributor

robt

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
Posted

Excellent shot! Is that a gust front? And is that a bug on your lense?

Think its a bird flying across. It definitely looks like a gust front to me.

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted (edited)

No, that's a UFO. Ask Yamkin?

Wouldn't suprise me. That sort of thing (interesting stuff) doesn't happen down here.

Edited by Thunder_Bolt
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robt Contributor

robt

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
Posted

hi everyone smile.png why is it that when there is low pressure to the north,the north gets all the exciting weather.And now there is low pressure to the south, the north still gets all the excitng weather pardon.gif

The North is Awesome.

That is all.

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