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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>


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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

just started pouring down

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Well that's a matter of opinion!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

Wow...

post-15445-0-44277600-1341504800_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

METO warnings recently updated once again.....a large chunk of the Midlands, N England, East Anglia and mid & north Wales now amber.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

What I don't understand is why the Meto still have a yellow and amber warning this far NE when a few others seemingly have the PPN pushed further south? Not saying anyone is right or wrong but do the Meto have better tools to utilise? They are sticking with their guns so far.....

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire

I've got my eyes on the stuff to the SSE of me at the moment, looks like it'll skirt to the W of Lincoln.. Looks promising.

Edited by robt
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Posted
  • Location: Halesowen, West Midlands
  • Location: Halesowen, West Midlands

Amber warning now covering the West midlands county completely, it's been slowly heading south during the day.

Edited by Luke
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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL

I've got my eyes on the stuff to the SSE of me at the moment, looks like it'll skirt to the W of Lincoln.. Looks promising.

Thankfully it looks like it will miss here.There has already been 35mm of rain today lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire

Thankfully it looks like it will miss here.There has already been 35mm of rain today lol.

Theres been a fair amount here as well, we've had a couple of large storms, and I watched the cell that hit you just after 1pm plod off towards Goole and give a couple of good thunderclaps.. Seemed like a fair bit of rain in it too.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather.
  • Location: Grimsby

The cells are just completely falling apart as they get close to this area, Im guessing theres a cap or not enough cape.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Massive storm in Eastern Germany. How id like to be there. :D

Lots of organised storms in E France. Latest models shifting the rain a little North. May miss the worst here just but an awful lot of chopping and changing to go yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire

Theres one virtually due south of me now that appears to be gaining strength.. :D

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

rain has eased off and no T&L

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

The east gets them again, or am I speeking too soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

What I don't understand is why the Meto still have a yellow and amber warning this far NE when a few others seemingly have the PPN pushed further south? Not saying anyone is right or wrong but do the Meto have better tools to utilise? They are sticking with their guns so far.....

Yes and the amber warning area has been extended further on the latest update. Guess it's a wait and see kind of event tomorrow. Keep watching the radar and satellite images.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'm none the wiser tbh...good luck all :D

Looking at radars and satellite images, I'd say the SE has a fair chance tonight. Models however are keen to keep the heaviest of any action to our North, in some cases way to our North!!!

Who knows.....!?!?!?!?

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

The Met are obviously still uncertain given their very large amber warning area.. GFS has pushed the precipitation back north, NAE keeps the heaviest in north Midlands/south Yorkshire, while HIRLAM wants to give the south (i.e Sussex/Kent/Hampshire) an absolute deluge with over 100mm of rain falling in a specific time scale.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

The Met are obviously still uncertain given their very large amber warning area.. GFS has pushed the precipitation back north, NAE keeps the heaviest in north Midlands/south Yorkshire, while HIRLAM wants to give the south (i.e Sussex/Kent/Hampshire) an absolute deluge with over 100mm of rain falling in a specific time scale.

Devastatingly I think the HIRLAM is an outlier... if you run the satellite loop quickly, you can see the division between the drier air and the muggier moist air...this dividing line (the cold front) would, judging by the motion, clear the South East corner, diverting the unstable thundery air to our North across EA and beyond...however, the FAX chart throws an interesting mix, showing a stalling, wavering CF across the SE overnight, possibly allowing thunderstorms/rain to develop before clearing North later....all very complex, but tbh I don't know what to think...other than I think us storm starved SE'rners will do well to get much out of tonight/tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Location: Hatfield, Doncaster, South Yorkshire

This one coming up from the Lincoln area is heading straight for me, and appears to be getting slightly stronger.. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Well it's getting closer if it's in lancs

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Posted
  • Location: Doncaster - east
  • Location: Doncaster - east

This one coming up from the Lincoln area is heading straight for me, and appears to be getting slightly stronger.. biggrin.png

Seems to be passing West of me, seen a few flashes over the other side of town out towards Rotherham/Barnsley way so it may just miss us that direction I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Another cell heading in this direction.. will probably do what the last one did and just skirt past here or die.

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