Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[mattyk1985]

Nice and sunny here with a few clouds starting to build now, so its looking good at the minute.

Regarding tomorrows monsoon is that likely to change areas again? As a few models had been suggesting it was pretty much affecting Lincs and into Yorkshire and up to the NW, and now its a lot further South?

[geoffw]

does the amount of rainfall warrant a red warning from the met office?

[Cal]

Another beefy cell fired up to the west of here now giving of sferics, seems to be a right old breeding ground here!!

[mattyk1985]

does the amount of rainfall warrant a red warning from the met office?

Once they are sure on where its going, i would have thought it would warrant a red warning as this will cause flooding.

[Lynxus]

does the amount of rainfall warrant a red warning from the met office?

A lot of stuff warrants red warnings from the met office. Never gets used though.

I think they need to be pretty much 100% sure before issuing and tbh at this stage, its all still way up in the air.

[Luke]

The latest forecast shows heavy rain across the midlands but on the Met Office the yellow warning only just edges into this region. Will they extend the warnings and maybe shift down the amber area too?

[Coast]

its all still way up in the air.

and might be down on the ground overnight.......

[Eskimo]

Here is my view on it, taking it further South than some of the models suggest, hopefully this is spot on! Remember to take this as a rough guide because lets be honest, no one knows.

[Snow free zone]

does the amount of rainfall warrant a red warning from the met office?

I'm not sure when the red warnings appear. In the NW 2 weeks ago we had record rainfall over 80mm in places for a 24 hr period (or 1 months rain in a day) there was significant flooding then. I think the difference then was the "amber" warnings were pretty much bang on and remained unaltered for a few days before the actual event, this time there is still a bit of margin for error - thats the way i'm reading it anyway. There was no red warning issued that day.

From a personal viewpoint, I am glad the worst of this lot seems to be missing here at the moment, we need a few dry days just to get rid of standing water in fields etc. Having has first hand experience of how quickly flash flooding occurs it is not pleasant to anyone it affects.

[weatherobsuk]

This is definitely going to have an effect on weekend events which includes Wimbledon, the British Grand Prix, RIAT airshow at Fairford, and locally a annual tractor-pull event. Watching the RADAR closely myself during the next 24hr as it's going to be an interesting time given i'm right under orographic conditions.

[Liam J]

Red warnings are rare and only issued for exceptionally severe weather posing a risk to life and property when confidence is very high in the event and the specific areas which will likely suffer the highest impact. Given the models chopping and changing over this event it's unlikely they will issue a red warning yet, if indeed at all. I don't think I've seen a red warning for heavy rain since the November 2009 floods in NW England when parts of Cumbria received over 300mm of rainfall in 24 hours.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Nick L]

We're not the SE, so no, we won't get a red warning

[Eskimo]

I'm not sure when the red warnings appear. In the NW 2 weeks ago we had record rainfall over 80mm in places for a 24 hr period (or 1 months rain in a day) there was significant flooding then. I think the difference then was the "amber" warnings were pretty much bang on and remained unaltered for a few days before the actual event, this time there is still a bit of margin for error - thats the way i'm reading it anyway. There was no red warning issued that day.

From a personal viewpoint, I am glad the worst of this lot seems to be missing here at the moment, we need a few dry days just to get rid of standing water in fields etc. Having has first hand experience of how quickly flash flooding occurs it is not pleasant to anyone it affects.

Red warnings are always issued when life and property could be threatened to a severe level, therefore the MetOffice need to be 100% sure that this is the case.

[Bobby]

It looks like a more southerly track for those downpours is more likely with central and eventually SW parts now more in the firing line.

GFS rain accumulations

ECM rainfall:

HIRLAM:

GEM/UKMO meanwhile take it a bit further North. More adjustments to come no doubt

[The PIT]

Seems they done a small update recently. Now an amber alter. For those who can't find the warnings here's the link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

[A.J]

We're not the SE, so no, we won't get a red warning

Nick, according to the grumbles of discontent I can hear rumbling away in the SE, you're going straight to hell for saying that!

[Lynxus]

Here is my view on it, taking it further South than some of the models suggest, hopefully this is spot on! Remember to take this as a rough guide because lets be honest, no one knows.

Id say that needs tilting.

Ie: I personally think the east wont see anywhere near enough for red. maybe amber..

Id say something like this with the black circle being the main area for prolonged rainfall. ( based on what i saw a few hours back )

MMM tasty

Edited July 5, 2012 by Lynxus

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Surely this monster moving up tonight will give at least a bit of thunder, especially if its forecast to be further south now, as it wont be passing over much of the North Sea? Nevertheless, this looks like its going to be very interesting indeed.

[Luke]

Yeah, still think the amber alert needs to be more over the midlands

[Nick L]

Nick, according to the grumbles of discontent I can hear rumbling away in the SE, you're going straight to hell for saying that!

Don't care, they've had their fair share of weather in recent years *runs*

But bloody hell, it's a bit warm and humid out there today, hope that's sufficient to spark something off.

[Bobby]

Seems they done a small update recently. Now an amber alter. For those who can't find the warnings here's the link http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

That seems to agree with the latest modelling, GFS ensembles have changed also with almost every run going for a more southerly track with even it going as far as the south coast. So Midlands, Wales and SW England now probably in the main risk area.

GFS ensemble precip mean

Edited July 5, 2012 by Barb-

[Eskimo]

The HIRLAM is here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73701-south-east-england-east-anglia-regional-discussion-june-28th-2012/page__st__440#entry2330665

The Metoffice have extended the orange warning further south.

[Bobby]

HIRLAM rainfall accumulations

Well, that's different. Somebody is going to get a soaking.

[Steve C]

Looking at the Met Office grid, attached to the warning, it's only the slightly lower score on probability of occurrence that's stopping a red warning. Maybe when things are more firm tomorrow morning, certain areas will then come under a red zone?

[Liam J]

Where is all of this rain to come from? Nothing of note on the satellite/radar images so far that I can see.