Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

Jane Louise
 Share

Recommended Posts

Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Quite a few strikes being picked up over N England from this batch. Hoping it'll make it over to Cumbria and kick the action off over the next few hours whistling.gif

post-9615-0-63506400-1341484337_thumb.pn

Really getting very active.

No one up there in here today?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Really getting very active.

No one up there in here today?

It seems not atm, shame as we need some reports on the ground conditions from as near to it as poss! As you say becoming very active in nature.

Edited by Liam J
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

I think these webcams are in the general area:

http://www.ripon-sc.org.uk/pages/webcams.htm

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Harrogate/webcams/latest

Harrogate.day0.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Might be my imagination but that band of rain in France is quite a bit further west than I believe was forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

further to my earlier post, the model outputs are firming up on tomorrow, the NMM, NAE, HIRLAM & GFS are in general agreement on the 06z runs, and all I can say is Stone me!!...the west Midlands will be under water tomorrow with up to 70mm of rainfall forecasted!...Plenty of heavy rain & possible flooding also for the east & north Midlands, parts of Eastern England & SE England......As far as storm possibilities go, some MLCAPE early on tomorrow morning, with a modicum of 4 layer lift, & moderate mid-level lapse rates, but saturated moisture profiles, so maybe some elevated convection, but at this stage I wouldn't expect much TBH

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Precipitation more than convection tomorrow then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodr Rookie

Hodr

Posted
  • Location: Halifax, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms, strong wind, heavy snow
  • Location: Halifax, West Yorkshire
Posted

Dull, white blanket of cloud and mist here, very humid and warm. All the lightning symbols have dissapeared from the forecasts as usual. Not expecting anything remotley interesting rest of today or year. lazy.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

further to my earlier post, the model outputs are firming up on tomorrow, the NMM, NAE, HIRLAM & GFS are in general agreement on the 06z runs, and all I can say is Stone me!!...the west Midlands will be under water tomorrow with up to 70mm of rainfall forecasted!...Plenty of heavy rain & possible flooding also for the east & north Midlands, parts of Eastern England & SE England......As far as storm possibilities go, some MLCAPE early on tomorrow morning, with a modicum of 4 layer lift, & moderate mid-level lapse rates, but saturated moisture profiles, so maybe some elevated convection, but at this stage I wouldn't expect much TBH

Just for AJ, it could be you.

stone.jpg

Seriously though let us hope folk are prepared for yet more monsoonal rain if that is how it comes about.

Thanks for the updates all.

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Some people have such a low boredom threshold!!!! Who said storms have to be up and about before lunchtime then????

Anything forecast for today was always going to be for later on and we haven't even got to 'just before later on' at the moment!!!!

fbz_5af25c6a9843a87de9336f6570ce1d23.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Warm and very sunny here and quite humid.i don't even think the sun has gone in all morning. A few distant sferics every now and again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Just for AJ, it could be you.

stone.jpg

Seriously though let us hope folk are prepared for yet more monsoonal rain if that is how it comes about.

Thanks for the updates all.

gottolovethisweather

12070618_0506.gif

Major flooding for west midlands and wales i think.

12070615_0506.gif

Water everywhere!

Edited by Lynxus
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

The Midlands looks like taking the brunt of tonights rain, not the North now. Whats the thundery chances with this and how heavy is the rain likely to be?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Torro warning out:

http://www.torro.org...te/forecast.php

myimg.gifmyimg.gif

Edited by Lynxus
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Just starting to get a little active over scotland with the showers breaking out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted (edited)

If one runs the NMM through (as far as it is out for the new update) the precipitation to me shows multi-cellular characteristics moving into the SE during the early hours.

This is also coupled with some decent mid-level CAPE of around 1500 j/kg even by 3am!

ttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

Edited by Paceyboy
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Any chances for the southwest or is it just about to be the 4th cloudy day in a row?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

If one runs the NMM through (as far as it is out for the new update) the precipitation to me shows multi-cellular characteristics moving into the SE during the early hours.

This is also coupled with some decent mid-level CAPE of around 1500 j/kg even by 3am!

ttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

Indeed, and it most likely will be Thunderstorms for the Low countries at least. However I still have doubts on it reaching this far without turning into one clump of heavy rain only. Still, its all to play for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

All the activity is 20 miles to the west of mesad.png . Can see it all forming but moving away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Some people have such a low boredom threshold!!!! Who said storms have to be up and about before lunchtime then????

Anything forecast for today was always going to be for later on and we haven't even got to 'just before later on' at the moment!!!!

fbz_5af25c6a9843a87de9336f6570ce1d23.jpg

For some of us it's totally cloudy so a few hours of solar heating potential has disappeared.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Looking at the models/radar im going to disagree with BF.

Storm potential today looks more likely than tomorrow with storms breaking out this afternoon in a line across W parts of Norfolk towards NW England. As for tomorrow this is more likely to be heavy thundery rain i.e torrential rain with the odd clap of thunder.

Have to say in the next few hrs I quiet fancy places such as Kings Lynn, Wisbeach (W Norfolk) seeing some action.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Updated Met O weather warnings just out and it doesn't make good reading if you don't like rain and thunderstorms.....

http://www.metoffice.../?regionName=uk

post-6667-0-89931400-1341488225.jpg

Issued at: 1213 on Thu 5 Jul 2012

Valid from: 0005 on Thu 5 Jul 2012

Valid to: 2355 on Thu 5 Jul 2012

Scattered heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely at times on Thursday, particularly during the afternoon and evening, with the potential for some torrential downpours in places. Southeastern areas of England are at less risk than areas further north, with any showers there tending to clear later.

The public should be aware that these showers, where they occur, may lead to surface water flooding.

post-6667-0-89931400-1341488225_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IanM Enthusiast

IanM

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

The NMM has pushed the main event southwards into the midlands, if you are thinking of going out chasing tomorrow please consider the fact that upto 70mm of rain is possible in places, it's not safe to be bombing around with one eye on the sky and 4 wheels aquaplaning - so keep safe if out and about for any reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Any chances for the southwest or is it just about to be the 4th cloudy day in a row?

I think we have bummed out again for these parts Miguel. It was looking so promising earlier this week, but as ever, it got downgraded into nothing at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

awwwwwww no coast dont look good for me but dont matter all reday seen 1 this year

You might want to dig your wellies out though Stu!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...