Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[Allseasons-Si]

plenty of activity in the north sea at the moment,but i cannot see this coming this way by the morning

[Cheese Rice]

Really heavy torrential downpour here.

[Allseasons-Si]

Really heavy torrential downpour here.

yeah,that's what i had earlier CR

though nothing has happened since it went by me

[Convective]

Considering its half 1 in the morning, seeing sferics on the maps is pretty impressive. Can't wait to see tomorrow (later today) when that sun comes out!

[ZONE 51]

Parameter - NAE - Theta-e 850h

Here is fridays thundery low.. so much moisture, really humid air.

Looking at the situation theirs going to be so much rain it is a concern-as seen in the warnings, it's an interesting setup and exciting to watch, this is a likely weather event, and yet another flood on the horizon.

Main interest for most is of course is it going to be thundery?

I can't see any reason why not! i think some thunderstorms are likely with this system and within the main very heavy rain to. I hope to be reading keeping track of all this, i might be to busy to post, but with all the great input into the forums i think il know whats happening! So a thundery 4 or 5 days? i would think and all in 'slow motion'? not much wind about to shift things and some storms getting stuck around for a while so it's a watch and wait thing, radar, sat, you know! nothing is set 100% things can change.

Edited July 5, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Supacell]

Morning storm fans

Already some showers around this morning and its only 7am. Looking good from around 10am onwards for some lively storms i feel. I will be chasing today but unless i can get another in-car charger for my laptop i have only got about an hour and a half use of my laptop (which is a bit pants when I was planning a whole day out chasing storms).

I am in two minds atm. Do I head slightly NE into the convergence zone as it crosses N Yorkshire (York/Thirsk area) or NW towards the Yorkshire Dales and into Cumbria. My concern today though is that the best shear profiles are south of me but best CAPE is north and east. Wind convergence is to my SW (this using the NMM hi res). So much planning and guessing needed

Regarding tonight and tomorrows torrent. Does anyone know if this is going to be in the form of an MCS from the continent with T&L or is it just an area of heavy rain?

Edited July 5, 2012 by Supacell

[Alex95]

I feel today will be extremely frustrating for me - I might even be able to see the storms in the distance to my west, but the wind coming from the North Sea will probably prevent any convection in the NE.

[richardc1983]

Is it expected for Leeds to be affected. We need to cover at work as we are a facilities company so maintain buildings.

Seen the warnings but weather reports seem to downplay it this morning from yesterday.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Morning storm fans

Already some showers around this morning and its only 7am. Looking good from around 10am onwards for some lively storms i feel. I will be chasing today but unless i can get another in-car charger for my laptop i have only got about an hour and a half use of my laptop (which is a bit pants when I was planning a whole day out chasing storms).

I am in two minds atm. Do I head slightly NE into the convergence zone as it crosses N Yorkshire (York/Thirsk area) or NW towards the Yorkshire Dales and into Cumbria. My concern today though is that the best shear profiles are south of me but best CAPE is north and east. Wind convergence is to my SW (this using the NMM hi res). So much planning and guessing needed

Regarding tonight and tomorrows torrent. Does anyone know if this is going to be in the form of an MCS from the continent with T&L or is it just an area of heavy rain?

I think that will be a MCS definitely, due to the massive amount of humidity and moisture in that thing. Definitely a few strikes and a few rumbles will be heard within that, if everything goes to plan. CANT WAIT . Already I can see the radar showing lively storms over S and E France which will be pushing N and intensifying throughout the day.

Edited July 5, 2012 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Coast]

I feel today will be extremely frustrating for me

Possibly for a few of us, but it's only the weather and nothing to get down about as there is always more just around the corner! Morning you lot! Yep, here I go again with more exercises to stretch your scrolling fingers

It's a very messy scene across Europe today according to ESTOFEX, who are showing a Kent Clipper in amongst some less vigorous potential in the North East:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 05 Jul 2012 06:00 to Fri 06 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 05 Jul 2012 06:25

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for north-eastern Spain mainly for large hail.

A level 2 was issued for eastern Germany into south-western Poland mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for eastern central Europe and the Balkans mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for western central Europe mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the Alpine region and the northern Mediterranean mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

The west European cut-off low is centred across north-western France. A vort-max will rotate around the base of this trough today, affecting Spain and France. The associated trough axis will spread north-eastward into Germany on Friday morning, while the strong mid-level jet remains across Spain and southern France. Ahead of the trough, warm air masses continue to spread north-westwards into Central Europe. Latest soundings indicate an EML to the south-east of Germany and western Poland, but rather steep lapse rates are also present across Germany and France. Rich low-level moisture is present in the warm air advection regime.

UKASF are going with:

Moderate

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 2012-07-04 23:48:00

Valid: 2012-07-05 00:00:00 - 2012-07-05 23:59:00

Synopsis:

Cut-off low continues to drift southeastwards, with main centre south of SW England. Cold mid-levels (-19C at 500mb) will overspread western Britain behind a cold front. Ahead, a plume of high ThetaE and WBPT will continue to advect northwards ahead of the cold front.

Discussion:

... NW, C, W & S SCOTLAND, NW & NE ENGLAND, E MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA ...

Main focus will be along/ahead of a surface cold front which will only slow progress northeastwards during the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form in the vicinity of the front as high WBPT advect northwards over highlighted areas. A series of pulse-type thunderstorms are expected for the most part, but more focus is given to portions of C-N & NW England and SW Scotland where low-level convergence, modest CAPE (600-800J/kg) and 20-30kts DLS overlap to produce an environment capable of sustaining cells and allowing more widespread sferic activity.

Slight directional shear (albeit veering of the surface flow) combined with local convergence zones also enhances the risk of a funnel or weak tornado in the MDT area. Given dry air aloft indicated on forecast soundings, hail is likely in stronger cores with potential for diameters up to 1.5cm. Also, slow storm motion combined with a surge of high PWAT, especially over Cumbria and SW Scotland with >32mm locally, significantly increases the risk of local flooding from prolonged torrential downpours.

... NORTHERN IRELAND, W/S IRELAND ...

Cold air aloft with dirunal heating will steepen lapse rates and generate 600-700J/kg CAPE, with a scattering of showers and a few pulse-type thunderstorms forming. Weak shear will lead to poorly organised convection, although low-level convergence over southern parts of Ireland later in the afternoon might allow an increase of sferic activity here. For now, given poor shear, we will not upgrade to MDT.

... WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

A rather low risk, but with cooler mid-levels and orographic forcing with low-level convergence a few showers are likely to form over high ground in particular. Marginal CAPE (a few hundred J/kg) might just be enough to produce some sporadic local sferic activity.

SkyWarn have nothing currently and TORRO have yesterday's forecast still up. Here's some pictures to browse like magazines in a dentists waiting room.......

Frankly the models are still a bit all over the place and it's a bugger to try and tell where any potential is going to break out into something stormy. The simple overviews from GFS may be a clue:

The more detailed analysis points to CAPE on the Eastern side North to South:

The rain is also mostly confined to the Eastern side during the day according to GFS:

A lot of surface CAPE through out the country:

Lapse rates coverage the same:

Hi-res charts agree with GFS:

With Scotland more covered:

Scotland and North Eastern England?

But less SB CAPE:

I'm a bit unsure as to where things will get going today, but there are chances all over!!! It looks like the main threats are substantial rainfall and this looks likely to continue through the night into the early hours:

I don't know, what do you guys think??!!!!

[Biggin]

So nothing crossing the SE Oh well never mind.............

[sunny scunny]

It's absolutely hammering down here.

[Supacell]

I don't know, what do you guys think??!!!!

I am going to go with where the best overlap of wind convergence, CAPE, shear and dewpoints are - Cumbria, Lancashire, West & North Yorkshire - for the best chances today.

Skipton at 3pm!!!

Edited July 5, 2012 by Supacell

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It's absolutely hammering down here.

Think thats the same stuff that hit the other end of Lincs about 1hr30mins ago. looks to have intensified a bit.

[Coast]

So nothing crossing the SE Oh well never mind.............

It seems not today. Carol Kirkwood had some amazing forecast rainfall accumulation figures for some areas over night though, 40mm in three hours in places she said. Our local SE Today forecast from Tomasz Schafernaker (yes, he's back!!) showed hardly any rain or storm activity at all in the SE today and overnight!

DP's are up today already though eh?

I'm taking these as a hint, as the higher DP's are predominantly in the East and in Scotland.......

[syncmaster]

It's absolutely hammering down here.

Yep its just missing us out here we are just a little to east, now that sounds strange...

[Supacell]

Single Sferic just south of Wetherby.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Supacell

[sunny scunny]

Yep its just missing us out here we are just a little to east, now that sounds strange...

Yeah most of the rain was to my west.4mm so far though.

[Liam J]

Feels crazy warm this morning, sitting under clear sunny skies now in very little wind. 8.45am - Temp 18.4c (my other sensor showing 20c), dew 16.2c, Humidity 99%! Daytime heating well and truly under way. Don't mind a bit of sunshine as long as the storms get delivered a bit later

The air feels very 'heavy' out there, not nice tbh.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Cloudwatcher]

We definitely won't be seeing any action of any sort here today. Got the usual cloudy overcast murk.

[Vince Coombes]

I feel today will be extremely frustrating for me - I might even be able to see the storms in the distance to my west, but the wind coming from the North Sea will probably prevent any convection in the NE.

LOL you make me laugh , frustrating you want to come to the SE mate , you have had more storms in the last month than i have seen in the last 6 years

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Dark clouds to the south

[A.J]

We definitely won't be seeing any action of any sort here today. Got the usual cloudy overcast murk.

I take it you just cut & paste the same post everyday? lol

Well, the hi-res models at at loggerheads.....The NMM places the area of heaviest ppn (with the attendant flooding risk) over Northern parts of England and the borders, whereas the NAE takes the same rainfall 100-200 miles further south over Lincolnshire, parts of England and into the East/West Midands with up to 50mm in places, as the HIRLAM takes the worst of the rainfall even further south with the worst affected areas being the south Mildlands & Central/Southern England.....A considerable difference in output!...So which model is going to blink first?

[picog]

I take it you just cut & paste the same post everyday? lol

Well, the hi-res models at at loggerheads.....The NMM places the area of heaviest ppn (with the attendant flooding risk) over Northern parts of England and the borders, whereas the NAE takes the same rainfall 100-200 miles further south over Lincolnshire, parts of England and into the East/West Midands with up to 50mm in places, as the HIRLAM takes the worst of the rainfall even further south with the worst affected areas being the south Mildlands & Central/Southern England.....A considerable difference in output!...So which model is going to blink first?

When do you think the forecasters will get a more accurate picture of where the heaviest rain will be?

[Coast]

A considerable difference in output!...So which model is going to blink first?

Yet again at t+18 hours or so and the main models/dedicated storm websites just can't agree - and not by a small margin either!

Radars and lightning detectors for the next 24 hours, oh and eyes on the skies too!!!!!!