Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I take it you just cut & paste the same post everyday? lol

Well, the hi-res models at at loggerheads.....The NMM places the area of heaviest ppn (with the attendant flooding risk) over Northern parts of England and the borders, whereas the NAE takes the same rainfall 100-200 miles further south over Lincolnshire, parts of England and into the East/West Midands with up to 50mm in places, as the HIRLAM takes the worst of the rainfall even further south with the worst affected areas being the south Mildlands & Central/Southern England.....A considerable difference in output!...So which model is going to blink first?

Do you reckon tomorrow could be like 28th June? but I do think it will miss here to the north

[A.J]

When do you think the forecasters will get a more accurate picture of where the heaviest rain will be?

Hi, hopefully the hi-res outputs should fall into line sometime today...The model runs will be updating around 11am, 5pm, & 11pm tonight (06z, 12z, 18z runs respectively)...they should give us all a better more accurate picture

[A.J]

Do you reckon tomorrow could be like 28th June? but I do think it will miss here to the north

I don't think so Mark TBH, the parameters are not in place, or anything like as extreme as last thursday....I'm off work today, so when the NMM updates I'll have a good look at the output and then post my thoughts....Bare in mind though that it'll only be my interpretations using my limited knowledge, so subject to correction!

[Liam J]

Yet again at t+18 hours or so and the main models/dedicated storm websites just can't agree - and not by a small margin either!

Radars and lightning detectors for the next 24 hours, oh and eyes on the skies too!!!!!!

Really could be a now-cast situation, can't quite believe the large divergence we have between two hi res models. God help the forecasters, major headaches!

[Coast]

Me neither, although the potential for a lot of accumulated rain and localised flooding still exists in parts. Lets hope it's not damaging.

[Supacell]

Whats the MLCAPE like for tonight/tomorrows event? I don't want to be getting excited over a period of heavy rain lol.

Torrential rain in these parts is nothing unusual and all it creates is a several hours of misery followed by several more days of misery caused by the flooding. Thunderstorms, however, are more of a treat and although they unfortunately would still bring the attendant misery to some, at least it will offer some excitement to us storm chasers.

[Liam J]

A snapshot of the latest radar including the current humidex (feels like) temperatures across the UK. Certainly feels very sultry up here today.

[BrickFielder]

Today

Weak mid level lapse rates again today which would limit storm potential.

Some instability forecast but models tend to disagree on where.

Mid level jet streak suggests some wind divergence towards the eastern part of the country which might help.

Based on mid level lapse rates I think I would favour more north eastern areas, with thunder storms being rare today, however low level convergence will most likely be a focus for developments. Slight chance of convergence zone type tornadoes but inflows and updrafts are likely to too weak for any real threat.

Tomorrow

Developing cold front moves an area of rain into east anglia and spreads westwards across the north midlands/north england (models disagree). Cape charts suggest not much instability associated with this.

Forecast SkewT's suggest a very moist atmosphere but not much convetive potential.

Mid Level lapse rates across souther areas are quite steep for a change.

We have a high level jet roaring over the southern UK, but winds at the highest level might be more divergent than convergent at the highest level. Some divergence in winds over the south west at mid levels with a complex wind pattern at low levels.

Cape charts suggest southern counties might be at risk of thunderstorms.

Forecast SkewT's suggest low to mid level wind speed shear is poor with large shear at the top level.

Since updrafts and inflows are likely to be stronger tomorrow, I think tomorrow has more potential. Still too early to tell and I would like to see clearer evidence of a triggering mechanism for the southern UK.

The models will most likely throw up some changes before the event so this is really just a heads up about potential.

[Hodgheg]

a few of my friends said there was a storm last night. People are commenting on how heavy the rainfall is at the moment too.

[Harry]

A snapshot of the latest radar including the current humidex (feels like) temperatures across the UK. Certainly feels very sultry up here today.

With such wide ranging uncertainties in the models, let's take a step back in time to more traditional methods of forecasting and connect the dots, so to speak

Based on the humidex values alone and the apparent flow of moisture from the continent, this in my view is the chances of thunderstorms/MCS later this evening and overnight.

Don't favour my chances (AGAIN!!!!) but hey ho!

[Coast]

Cape charts suggest southern counties might be at risk of thunderstorms.

Liking that thought Brick, GFS general forecast going with it but technically missing Sussex!!!

[DeepSnow]

Im going to Gatwick tomorrow afternoon to stay the night to be at the airport early saturday morning, what are the chances of getting anything down there tomorrow evening?

[Liam J]

That intensifying band of ppn currently showing sferics thats affecting Yorkshire is extending nw'ly right towards my location, lets hope it continues.

20.3c here now, 17c dew, 90% humidity. I'm traumatising the neighbours wearing shorts and showing my pasty white legs off

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Lancashire Lass]

Ey up. Erm Current temp 22.6c, dewpoint 18.1c, humidity 76%

Liam I hope they are wearing sun glasses

[Sussex Jules]

Coast seriously will you take down that darn storm shield!

[Lynxus]

Not sure if anyone posted this one, But this has been sent to me from the Glasgow funnel yesterday. ( I can only assume its real as i trust the source )

-G

[Liam J]

Liam I hope they are wearing sun glasses

No. But when I stepped outside all I could see was people running inside and closing doors and curtains.... Weird folk round here, maybe I should put a t shirt on haha

Just reached 21.0c here woo hoo, good heat building steadily away

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Stormeh]

Not sure if anyone posted this one, But this has been sent to me from the Glasgow funnel yesterday. ( I can only assume its real as i trust the source )

-G

Cool, thanks, great pic!

[Lynxus]

Plenty of sferics coming in now from the stuff up north.

[c_jephcott]

Apparently the 2nd photo of the funnel was taken by ATC up in Glasgow tower. Impressive none the less - what are the chances of that happening?

I was saying earlier that I've been flying for quite a few years now, doing 4 flights a day and never heard "Funnel Cloud" on the ATIS or METAR at any given stage.

What a piece of luck for all those who saw it yesterday!

Edited July 5, 2012 by c_jephcott

[Lynxus]

Apparently the 2nd photo of the funnel was taken by ATC up in Glasgow tower. Impressive none the less - what are the chances of that happening?

I was saying earlier that I've been flying for quite a few years now, doing 4 flights a day and never heard "Funnel Cloud" on the ATIS or METAR at any given stage.

What a piece of luck for all those who saw it yesterday!

I suppose it must be quite sparse up north so the chances of a funnel being spotted and then reported is lower than say down south...

Whith it being over a busy airport there are plenty of people ( And weather fanatics ) working in and around the area so I bet it was quite exciting

Wouldn't want to be lining up for take-off and seeing that at the end of the runway hahah

Edited July 5, 2012 by Lynxus

[Vince Coombes]

Plenty of sferics coming in now from the stuff up north.

well thats a suprise !!!!

[Liam J]

Quite a few strikes being picked up over N England from this batch. Hoping it'll make it over to Cumbria and kick the action off over the next few hours

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

Just logged on, {not looked back yet} just looking at netweathers radar, currently showing storms possibly around Scotch corner Stockton area, can anyone confirm

[todd1970]

Sun just managed to burst through here , get rid of all this grey muck before all that stuff south of us gets here hopefully.