Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[boxy]

did have a picture but its not uploading from my mobile...

[sunny scunny]

The rainfall at the moment is incredible.Im surprised there isn't any thunder.

[Coast]

Not that models are much use at this point, but GFS is till thinking get your boats ready and for some time to come:

[Tim B]

Sure is warm here in that sunshine though there's some nice convection going on right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm before the day is out.

[NUT]

Might end up being a little unlucky today actually here as rain seems to have swamped much of southern scotland but we still dry here

[The PIT]

Now got an amber alert for Saturday as well. So we've got Brickfielder saying a possible nay and Met office saying bring it on. Who's going to be right?

[Stuart]

Been outside head some thunder)

[Keraunic]

Some massive cauliflower heads popping up to the NW of Ippy right now. No photos cos didn't like nipping to shop with iPad, it looks naff.

[Coast]

Pretty, if it wasn't so concerning......

[DAVID SNOW]

Been outside head some thunder)

Ouch!

[Supacell]

Anyone under that cell near Goole?

[Stuart]

seem like 67km away from me

[sunny scunny]

Anyone under that cell near Goole?

It went through scunny a short while ago.I only heard the odd rumble of thunder, but the rain was incredible.

[Chris.R]

Why didn't you kick it?

[Stuart]

seem like that storm missed us

[Chris.R]

We're not even after kick off here.

[SteveB]

Looks like according to the warning put up by the met office, I should completely miss out on all the rain, which is a good job really as we have nearly reached 70mm for the month already.

[Stuart]

seem like more on the way )

[Lynxus]

Looks like according to the warning put up by the met office, I should completely miss out on all the rain, which is a good job really as we have nearly reached 70mm for the month already.

Yeah , about that...

Id get your wellies out..

[Eskimo]

MetOffice video!

[Stuart]

getting closer here

[Mapantz]

Funnel cloud just photographed by Alison Jacobs at Steart, nr Bridgwater, Somerset

http://yfrog.com/mmpmhqnj

[Mark Bayley]

Latest from the NAE, and highlights the uncertainty by placing the heaviest totals further north on the 12z

6z

12z

Edited July 5, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Coast]

Latest from the NAE, and highlights the uncertainty by placing the heaviest totals further north on the 12z

6z

12z

That's for Saturday though, we've got the lot tonight to get through first!!!

[Liam J]

All bets are off for the overnight and tomorrow I think now. Low pressure system coming in from the Atlantic is moving in a lot quicker than I thought.

Warm maritime air is now feeding into our system to the south west from the incoming system. The system to the south west appears to be being shifted more south and east. Over on the continent storms are initiating.

It looks to me like we may have incoming imports into the south east evening time and for a time depending on when they get here they may be surface based. Will be interested to see how quickly the Met Office warning areas change this afternoon. Possibility now of severe storms for some areas in the south (mainly heavy rain, but lightning as well ?)

As for tomorrow then I think we might be looking at something rather different than the models currently show. Its all rather intriguing to watch the two systems almost collide.

Interesting analysis BF, so your not expecting conditions to be nearly as bad as model guidance is currently suggesting, with severe storms likely for a few areas but nothing so widespread and disruptive? Thanks for your thoughts, if you have time to keep us updated on further developments that would be much appreciated.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J