Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[Chris.R]

Ooo it's really hot out there, the sun is just too hot. If this isn't enough to kick something off later then I don't know what is! It reminds me of may the 11th or 12th 2008 when it was sunny like this all morning untill one hell of a storm caim up from Chesher. I think that was the last proper storm here.

[The PIT]

Going to be a long wait. I'm now doing rain preparation by sitting in the garden. That may trigger some storms for us.

[Gavin P]

Hey all,

My video today, inevitably, deals with tomorrows rainfall event;

http://gavsweathervids.com/

E/A, Lincs, Mids, Wales, and N. Eng in the firing line, but might change.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Gavin P

[Aaron]

Nice little storm in Lincs.. think it'll just skirt by here.

[Coast]

Where is all of this rain to come from?

The sky Liam!!!!!

I think you'll find the significant rain is going to be chiefly in the late evening/early hours and is some way off yet.

[Liam J]

The sky Liam!!!!!

.

Really? Heres me staring at the ground waiting for it to leak....

Looking at the models the rainfall will be imported from the continent as a shallow area of LP drags the showers/storms into circulation? Very interesting weather on the horizon thats for sure, many more surprises to come I'm sure.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Looking at the models the rainfall will be imported from the continent as a shallow area of LP drags the showers/storms into circulation? Very interesting weather on the horizon thats for sure, many more surprises to come I'm sure.

Interesting developments on the continent currently:

http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/ZAMG/ASII/ASII_20120705_1200.html

[Lynxus]

Really? Heres me staring at the ground waiting for it to leak....

Looking at the models the rainfall will be imported from the continent as a shallow area of LP drags the showers/storms into circulation? Very interesting weather on the horizon thats for sure, many more surprises to come I'm sure.

Its very interesting to me mainly due to the fact that LP's dont come from this direction often and when they do, its normally a very wet and interesting time.

Cant wait

[Liam J]

Interesting developments on the continent currently:

http://www.knmi.nl/d...20705_1200.html

WOW MCS heaven over there at the mo! Interesting times ahead for the UK and worrying times for some of us!

Buy your inflatable dingy's now while stocks last

Edited July 5, 2012 by Liam J

[sunny scunny]

Very heavy rain again now.No T& L though yet.

[Andy Bown]

Is anyone else reminded of July 2007 - was it Friday 20th?

[Supacell]

Just sat to west of Harrogate. There is a storm to my SE and I am planning on it coming this way

[Coast]

Is anyone else reminded of July 2007 - was it Friday 20th?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/july2007/

[Mapantz]

Really? Heres me staring at the ground waiting for it to leak....

Looking at the models the rainfall will be imported from the continent as a shallow area of LP drags the showers/storms into circulation? Very interesting weather on the horizon thats for sure, many more surprises to come I'm sure.

When you have a pocket of unstable theta-e air coming in, that low pressure will just pull moisture in like there's no tomorrow!

4" of rain should be no problems for some people across the Midlands and Northern England.

Not surprising the MO have revised their warnings, it will bring more rain in to the south west with the cyclonic flow.

[A.J]

Is anyone else reminded of July 2007 - was it Friday 20th?

great minds think alike Andy, I was just thinking that!.....If I recall the deluge came in from the SE from the near continent, and on the radar it looked like a tropical cyclone with a pronounced spiral arc of ppn (with embedded thunderstorms) as it moved SE to NW

[BrickFielder]

All bets are off for the overnight and tomorrow I think now. Low pressure system coming in from the Atlantic is moving in a lot quicker than I thought.

Warm maritime air is now feeding into our system to the south west from the incoming system. The system to the south west appears to be being shifted more south and east. Over on the continent storms are initiating.

It looks to me like we may have incoming imports into the south east evening time and for a time depending on when they get here they may be surface based. Will be interested to see how quickly the Met Office warning areas change this afternoon. Possibility now of severe storms for some areas in the south (mainly heavy rain, but lightning as well ?)

As for tomorrow then I think we might be looking at something rather different than the models currently show. Its all rather intriguing to watch the two systems almost collide.

[Lynxus]

That met office warning still seems to far NE to me....

Hmmm What do they know..

[boxy]

Can hear distant thunder to my east, getting increasingly darker but think this may just skirt by me.

[A.J]

All bets are off for the overnight and tomorrow I think now. Low pressure system coming in from the Atlantic is moving in a lot quicker than I thought.

Warm maritime air is now feeding into our system to the south west from the incoming system. The system to the south west appears to be being shifted more south and east. Over on the continent storms are initiating.

It looks to me like we may have incoming imports into the south east evening time and for a time depending on when they get here they may be surface based. Will be interested to see how quickly the Met Office warning areas change this afternoon. Possibility now of severe storms for some areas in the south (mainly heavy rain, but lightning as well ?)

As for tomorrow then I think we might be looking at something rather different than the models currently show. Its all rather intriguing to watch the two systems almost collide.

Wow...all to play for...exciting or indeed worrying times ahead depending on how you view this type of weather...

...Just going back to Andy's post earlier, here's the radar at two hourly intervals from the NW archive for 20/7/07.....nasty looking circulation and ppn arc indeed...

[Lynxus]

All bets are off for the overnight and tomorrow I think now. Low pressure system coming in from the Atlantic is moving in a lot quicker than I thought.

Warm maritime air is now feeding into our system to the south west from the incoming system. The system to the south west appears to be being shifted more south and east. Over on the continent storms are initiating.

It looks to me like we may have incoming imports into the south east evening time and for a time depending on when they get here they may be surface based. Will be interested to see how quickly the Met Office warning areas change this afternoon. Possibility now of severe storms for some areas in the south (mainly heavy rain, but lightning as well ?)

As for tomorrow then I think we might be looking at something rather different than the models currently show. Its all rather intriguing to watch the two systems almost collide.

The system in the AT will merge with the LP to our SW. This will create a mega super dooper LP causing 100's of supercells and well over 2000+ sferics per hour across the whole of the UK.

The GOV will demand that everyone interested in weather be allowed a day off work and free petrol will be given.

Just you wait...

[Carl46Wrexham]

Is anyone else reminded of July 2007 - was it Friday 20th?

Yes it was, that day I was travelling down the M5 to Somerset. I was one of the lucky ones in that I didn't get trapped on there overnight, but still took me 14 hours to get from North Wales to Minehead. Absolutely hellish day.

Edited July 5, 2012 by No thunder here!

[Luke]

That met office warning still seems to far NE to me....

Hmmm What do they know..

That's exactly what I think

[Steve C]

I think where I live, had only about half an hour of heavy rain from that one. Still the forecast beforehand had made me cancel a camping trip (the camping trip was not my idea) I was lucky on both counts.

[boxy]

View to my north east

Edited July 5, 2012 by boxy

[Steve C]

View to my north east

Foggy?