Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[Andy Bown]

Funnel cloud just photographed by Alison Jacobs at Steart, nr Bridgwater, Somerset

http://yfrog.com/mmpmhqnj

Stunning image. Thanks for sharing it. I'm sure Ian Fergusson will show it on his BBC Points West forecast this evening.

[Keraunic]

That met video sounds a bit real. Let's play wait and see again.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That's for Saturday though, we've got the lot tonight to get through first!!!

No, that's the accumulated precipitation from now until Saturday. I have been looking at the latest accumulated precip charts by the NAE and it seems it's pushed the area a bit further north and reduced its intensity somewhat.

[Mark Bayley]

That's for Saturday though, we've got the lot tonight to get through first!!!

Its the total accumulative rainfall by Saturday which seems to show the 12z has pushed tomorrows heaviest rainfall slightly north. We've also got todays showers, which annoyingly seem to be missing me just to the east, still, its nice to see some sun at last!!

[Eskimo]

That met video sounds a bit real. Let's play wait and see again.

a bit what?

[Coast]

No, that's the accumulated precipitation from now until Saturday. I have been looking at the latest accumulated precip charts by the NAE and it seems it's pushed the area a bit further north and reduced its intensity somewhat.

Its the total accumulative rainfall by Saturday which seems to show the 12z has pushed tomorrows heaviest rainfall slightly north.

Ah yes, sorry! Seems it could be wherever you want it, depending on the model you use! Somone's going to get wet.......

[Trancemaster1966]

Some dirty looking black beasts forming rapidly over the Ayrshire coast and heading slowly North. Methinks Glasgow and the Central belt might be in for a kicking

[mattyk1985]

Ah yes, sorry! Seems it could be wherever you want it, depending on the model you use! Somone's going to get wet.......

Its all going to be very interesting come tomorrow. I kind of hoping we bear the brunt up here apart from the flooding bit.

Back to today I can't really see anything happening here today. At least its a nice warm sunny day though.

Edited July 5, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Staffordshire]

been offline for a while any chance of thunder with this rain tommorow? dosent look like it to me... but what do some of the more knowledgable think?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Sweet F.A here, its just not going to happen is it?.............sigh

[gottolovethisweather]

Looking at the models/radar im going to disagree with BF.

Storm potential today looks more likely than tomorrow with storms breaking out this afternoon in a line across W parts of Norfolk towards NW England. As for tomorrow this is more likely to be heavy thundery rain i.e torrential rain with the odd clap of thunder.

Have to say in the next few hrs I quiet fancy places such as Kings Lynn, Wisbeach (W Norfolk) seeing some action.

Stunning accuracy there by TEITS if you were to re-run the last hour or so's radar captures.

What chances of a surprise downpour down central southern england I wonder?

I am particularly interested in the circulations over NE FRANCE as stated by Coast, the movement currently takes them near the south coast from say IOW eastwards, come the early hours.

As others have said, take care out if you are expected to affected under the WARNING area and try as you might to be prepared for the worst. I agree with others that the beasts from the east can potentially be more condusive than others, history tells us so - Lynmouth 1952?

Stay safe and at the same time, keep us informed guys n gals.

gottolovethisweather

[Lynxus]

Im personally hoping that this band of heavy rain takes a slightly more southern trek. I have a feeling though that its going to be more, mid-midlands north.

[Methuselah]

Some dirty looking black beasts forming rapidly over the Ayrshire coast and heading slowly North. Methinks Glasgow and the Central belt might be in for a kicking

You'll have trouble seeing Arran this arvo, then?

[Lynxus]

This heat and humidity is getting unbearable round here.

[Coast]

I am particularly interested in the circulations over NE FRANCE as stated by Coast, the movement currently takes them near the south coast from say IOW eastwards, come the early hours.

Hmmm starting to drift a bit from pure convective, but this is shaping up to dump a lot of rain so has to be worthy of perusing eh? I'm not convinced any model is 100% at this point and radar watching will be essential tonight onwards. I'll be off line for a while but keeping an eye on things and also keeping fingers crossed that members here don't get more than they want!!! (that includes me!)

[Cheshire Freeze]

NAE 12z take on the rain 15z tomorrow...

http://expert-images...070615_0512.gif

I'd wager there's a chance of some convective cells in there.

Edited July 5, 2012 by CreweCold

[NUT]

Seems to be completely easing off down south here now (north of scotland still pretty active)

[Supacell]

It is flippin humid out here, my top is soaked with sweat!

Not much lightning around these parts now (N Yorkshire) but going to hang around as it is early yet. I am currently between Harrogate and York

[Trancemaster1966]

You'll have trouble seeing Arran this arvo, then?

It's disappeared completely from view mate

[NO LONGER POSTING]

NAE 12z take on the rain 15z tomorrow...

http://expert-images...070615_0512.gif

I'd wager there's a chance of some convective cells in there.

You would though uts right over your house

[Chris K]

Wonder what it'll be like here in Gloucestershire tomorrow. Met office curls the rain around us in disgust and heads down to Cornwall allowing us to stay less wet. Other models have rainfall hammering heaviest just to our north and still giving us a soaking.

Will be interesting to see how this system pans out as it crosses england and which models were closest.

[Methuselah]

It's disappeared completely from view mate

At least the cafe by Ardrossan beach will be doing a good trade? Nice cafe that, btw.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hmmm starting to drift a bit from pure convective, but this is shaping up to dump a lot of rain so has to be worthy of perusing eh? I'm not convinced any model is 100% at this point and radar watching will be essential tonight onwards. I'll be off line for a while but keeping an eye on things and also keeping fingers crossed that members here don't get more than they want!!! (that includes me!)

As Coast says above, the thundery potential is unknown/unsure at this stage but there will be a rumble or two for some lucky folk, although most probably nothing too exciting to be honest.

However, radar and satellite watching is part of this storm chasing buzz. Whilst the Met Office (as indicated in their video)are still uncertain, so should we all be. Where, when and how the drama unfolds will be answered in time. The development of a low from the east is akin to us trying to chase those elusive beasts from the east come winter time, they rarely come out as planned.

Here's the latest european perspective, all eyes on France for the next 6-9 hours or so.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Methuselah]

Seems to be completely easing off down south here now (north of scotland still pretty active)

Sod it! After all those years' in Inverness, missing all the storms. And - now look what happens!

[sunny scunny]

Torrential rain here for the last 30 min with lots of flooding now.