Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 3rd July 2012>

[Aaron]

Looks like a nice storm for Manchester

[mattyk1985]

Thunder here :-)

[Liam J]

Heavy showers clearing here to reveal some blue sky and a pleasant evening. No thunder or lightning to report but there were strikes detected over the Central Lakes earlier.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, that cell that moved out of N France and weakened over the Channel has now fired up a considerable amount near Buckinghamshire, MK area !

[A.J]

just been having a perusal at the NMM hi-res model output and it looks quite promising for some elevated convection/storms, (possibly even an MCS to develop) to drift up from the near continent and push NWwards across East Anglia, East Midlands overnight into NW parts of England through tomorrow morning...Some high theta-e air advecting northwards from the near continent in association with plenty of MLCAPE and 4 layer Lift, decent moisture levels and even some deep layer shear....I would imagine the CF and attendent colder pool of upper air will help steepen mid-level lapse rates aid storm development

Edited July 4, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[rixxxgolf]

Decently dark, raining and odd rumble of the Thunder in Grimsby... 21.3c too and inching up! :/

[Supacell]

just been having a perusal at the NMM hi-res model output and it looks quite promising for some elevated convection/storms, (possibly even an MCS to develop) to drift up from the near continent and push NWwards across East Anglia, East Midlands overnight into NW parts of England through tomorrow morning...Some high theta-e air advecting northwards from the near continent in association with plenty of MLCAPE and 4 layer Lift, decent moisture levels and even some deep layer shear....I would imagine the CF and attendent colder pool of upper air will help steepen mid-level lapse rates aid storm development

Liking the sound of that. I cannot get MLCAPE charts with my netweather extra (probably cos i have the lite version) but have been wondering about this. Can you tell from the NMM what sort of time. I am just wondering what time it would get here and if i may get some night time lightning or if i could potentially drive out to see some if its not going to be too far away

EDIT: I can answer my own question as just checked NMM precipitation charts. Incoming my area 7am.

Edited July 4, 2012 by Supacell

[Arnie Pie]

just been having a perusal at the NMM hi-res model output and it looks quite promising for some elevated convection/storms, (possibly even an MCS to develop) to drift up from the near continent and push NWwards across East Anglia, East Midlands overnight into NW parts of England through tomorrow morning...Some high theta-e air advecting northwards from the near continent in association with plenty of MLCAPE and 4 layer Lift, decent moisture levels and even some deep layer shear....I would imagine the CF and attendent colder pool of upper air will help steepen mid-level lapse rates aid storm development

You were pretty much bang on with your synopsis last week Aj

[Supacell]

Wow, that cell that moved out of N France and weakened over the Channel has now fired up a considerable amount near Buckinghamshire, MK area !

And now just started spitting out the odd sferic.

[Chris.R]

Re, tomorrow morning, I like the sound of what AJ says although I'll probably be to far west again as ever. There even seems to be a small amount of SBCAPE around, building through out the morning, so perhaps any storms could become surface based by then. I've not heard anyone else mention anything about tonight apart from AJ so it might be worth getting a second opinion on it, (not that I don't trust AJ!). I would also like to have an idea on what sort of time to expect this thing.

[A.J]

You were pretty much bang on with your synopsis last week Aj

Wikipedia mate

Thanks for the compliment but I'm no expert, some far more learned on here than me!....I've just gleaned a bit of knowledge of the last few years on here from using the NW guides and reading/learning from the experts like Nick Finnis, Brickfielder and our resident tornado chasing nutter 'The Sherminator' ...(and before he pm's me with loads of abuse, W09...lol, just kidding)

Edited July 4, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Cloud 10]

Just heard a rumble of thunder to my south-east.

[A.J]

A few charts from the NW Extra NMM outputs.....By the way, it's really worth subscibing to the service, it's cheap, damned concise and without doubt the best collection of weather data/charts you can lay your hands on this side of the Andromeda galaxy!)

Snapshot from 05z tommorrow, based on today's 12z output (bare in mind, it's just one model run, so subject to subtle/not so subtle change!

[matty40s]

I do believe I am directly in the firing line of the possible storm that is heading towards Rugby now, one lightning strike on the radar so far.........maybe this is the last day of my NSC membership.

[stormchaser1]

We have ligtning bring it on

[P-M]

We have ligtning bring it on

Where are you at the minute mate?? I can't see anything on the radar in the area, although I have just heard a rumble of thunder too??? Very weird..

[Sunny Android]

Where are you at the minute mate?? I can't see anything on the radar in the area, although I have just heard a rumble of thunder too??? Very weird..

It looks all heading your way out of Co Durham !

Edited July 4, 2012 by Sunny Android

[stormchaser1]

Where are you at the minute mate?? I can't see anything on the radar in the area, although I have just heard a rumble of thunder too??? Very weird..

between the town moor and the airport. Im looking to the sw

[Cloud 10]

Just passed overhead here,two very close lightning strikes with booming thunder and torrential rain.

[P-M]

It looks all heading your way out of Co Durham !

It's moving on a slight NW'rly track though so think the main bulk will miss Tyneside. The forecast for this area looks very interesting indeed the next few days, I wonder what we will be discussing on Monday!

between the town moor and the airport. Im looking to the sw

That makes sense then. I actually heard a distant rumble of thunder from here unless it was something else but sure it was.

Edited July 4, 2012 by Paul-Michael

[stormchaser1]

It's moving on a slight NW'rly track though so think the main bulk will miss Tyneside. The forecast for this area looks very interesting indeed the next few days, I wonder what we will be discussing on Monday!

That makes sense then. I actually heard a ditant rumble of thunder from here unless it was something else but sure it was.

camera is rolling i have bout hr of video on there so hopefully might catch something

[Liam J]

I can hear distant rumbles of thunder from that cell over North Cumbria. Quite a decent evening here now, but I want storms!!

[Cloud 10]

Sky gone a bit weird after that thundery shower,clouds moving in lots of different directions.

[stormchaser1]

Looks like its heading towards airport. Think im on the edg of it

[P-M]

camera is rolling i have bout hr of video on there so hopefully might catch something

I would head towards Prudda and Hexham matey see what you can see from there if you are north of the Tyne.. Although saying that it aint a massive storm so maybe hold off and see what tomorrow brings!

Edited July 4, 2012 by Paul-Michael