Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[legritter]

i can report that the frontal rain is just to my south , but right now we have some very large rogue spots of rain .gone flat calm . if this system stalls across centrall parts i wouldnt be surprised to see some impressive rain fall totals come small hours . looking good for sat sun for storms , stay safe all regards legritter , ps had some thun and light last night about 9 .30ish but very brief

[Reefseeker]

Yes, I happened to be taking my walk during that hail storm! I can confirm it hurt.

Yep, me too in Surbiton, very squelchy trainers!

[Andy Bown]

Looks like another fairly decent risk of storms tomorrow and Saturday across S England, S Wales, Midlands and E Anglia. Vertical shear looks very weak, so storms not really organising much structure or threatening much in the way of severe weather. Hail and gusty winds likely with any storms and hopefully will be some nice cloudscapes around in the clean rPm airmass.

Won't the air be clearer on Saturday than tomorrow though Nick? I can see tomorrow morning being very dull South of the main rainband with only a few breaks

occuring by lunchtime at around the same time as downpours begin to develop.

All I can say is wow!

Thank you for sharing your experience !!

[legritter]

RAIN BECOMING steady , looks more like november out ,im of to do some christmas shopping , whoooops just noticed on the calendar its july ,looking good for conv action sat sun ,enjoy cheers

[Radiating Dendrite]

Won't the air be clearer on Saturday than tomorrow though Nick? I can see tomorrow morning being very dull South of the main rainband with only a few breaks

occuring by lunchtime at around the same time as downpours begin to develop.

Thank you for sharing your experience !!

That's ok.

Even though I love Thunderstorms and hail, I would rather be inside looking out!

It was the largest hail I have seen though. Have seen pea size before, but this was slightly larger.

[Methuselah]

There was weather balloon-sized hail here, yesterday...

[AWD]

Any potential there was for next Thursday as been well and truly downgraded by the GFS 12z run. In any case, light years away anyway.

Nearer to time, tomorrow and Saturday show some good potential for pulse type storms anywhere in Southern England, South Midlands and South Wales really.

[legritter]

Any potential there was for next Thursday as been well and truly downgraded by the GFS 12z run. In any case, light years away anyway.

Nearer to time, tomorrow and Saturday show some good potential for pulse type storms anywhere in Southern England, South Midlands and South Wales really.

looking foreward to some action fri ,sat ,sun ,as for next thurs anything could happen ,absolutely pouring down here cheers

[AWD]

looking foreward to some action fri ,sat ,sun ,as for next thurs anything could happen ,absolutely pouring down here cheers

Won't be anything in our region on Sunday, pressure will kill off any showers here by then, in association with the two day Summer next week.

Friday and Saturday do look good for the South however, so another day of highs and lows...... and lows............... and lows................ and lows!

[AWD]

I like the Points West forecast by Ian Fergusson tonight. Plenty of lightning symbols and heavy showers around Bristol, Gloucs. & Wiltshire. Torrential downpours with Lightning he said. But will it happen..... Only time will tell.

[Karl83]

I like the Points West forecast by Ian Fergusson tonight. Plenty of lightning symbols and heavy showers around Bristol, Gloucs. & Wiltshire. Torrential downpours with Lightning he said. But will it happen..... Only time will tell.

Excellent. Better chance than we've had of late, would you say?

[SteveB]

I like the Points West forecast by Ian Fergusson tonight. Plenty of lightning symbols and heavy showers around Bristol, Gloucs. & Wiltshire. Torrential downpours with Lightning he said. But will it happen..... Only time will tell.

Looks like I will be too far west to see anything, but I think anything east of the Mendips will have a better chance.

I have well and truely given up on expecting anything more than the odd flash or rumble in these parts.

The wait for a decent storm continues.

[AWD]

Excellent. Better chance than we've had of late, would you say?

Well, you know me, I'm not a great believer of rPm "Westerly" flows delivering here and after todays observations nothing as changed, I still think things will develop further East, but Ian was very bullish and there are some good charts out there for our region, so never say never.

I think along the M4 corridor in Wiltshire could be the place to be.

Good chance of some lively downpours and hail though.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Karl83]

Well, you know me, I'm not a great believer of rPm "Westerly" flows delivering here and after todays observations nothing as changed, I still think things will develop further East, but Ian was very bullish and there are some good charts out there for our region, so never say never.

I think along the M4 corridor in Wiltshire could be the place to be.

Good chance of some lively downpours and hail though.

I'll take the Hail! Would love to see some Golf balls falling from the sky!

I do think your right though AWD, you pretty much have been in your previous posts on previous convective days. I think "stuff" will develop here, then move on.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Bobby]

The BBC Wales forecast showed lightning over Wales too. Certainlty some unstable air following this low.

[Sainsbo]

I like the Points West forecast by Ian Fergusson tonight. Plenty of lightning symbols and heavy showers around Bristol, Gloucs. & Wiltshire. Torrential downpours with Lightning he said. But will it happen..... Only time will tell.

When is this forcast for? Tonight, or tomorrow?

[Karl83]

When is this forcast for? Tonight, or tomorrow?

Tomorrow Sainsbo.

[Lynxus]

Well, NW and Google weather ( on igoogle) i sshowing thunder in gloucester tomorrow afternoon.

Only time will tell.

I might get the BBQ out as it will evidently not rain.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

Edited July 12, 2012 by Lynxus

[Andy Bown]

Downpours will begin to develop very soon after the sun burns through to warm the atmosphere, how long that will take to happen

is open to question though because the day will likely start dull, misty and drizzly.

My prediction is for the sun to burn through from around 10.00 and showers to develop by midday with them quickly becoming

heavier, potentially thundery and torrential through the afternoon.

There is very likely to be a convergence zone through South Somerset / Dorset / South Wiltshire where the worst (best!) downpours

will start off. Most times that occurs the zone gradually moves North through the afternoon.

Other downpours will form from the Bristol Channel and along the M4 corridor but I wouldn't be surprised to see, as yesterday, a dry

slot between the 2 zones of downpours.

[Bobby]

NMM shows two lines of showers developing in the morning/early afternoon initially across SW England and S. Wales - then spreading to most areas of England and Wales through the day.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Barb-

[Methuselah]

Can you all blow them 50 miles' north, please?

[AWD]

Going by the 12z GFS, there is definetly potential out their for some pretty decent storms in places, something akin to what parts of the South East saw Yesterday.

Cape and LI are good

Dewpoint and Humidity reasonably high

Plenty of PPN around

GFS sees the main risk across parts of the Midlands and Southern England

This is a rough map with my thinking on how things will develop tomorrow. By no means do I really know what I am talking about, just based on past observations, experience, proffessional opinions and current model output.

Red = Good chance of storms, reasonable chance of moderately severe storms

Orange = Reasonable chance of storms, small chance of moderately severe storms

Yellow = Chance of small amount of Lightning and Thunder

[Raidan]

ok where do I start,yesterday evening around 8.30 the sky to my north was BLACK and I really thought something was going to happen,got some pics but I don't know how to upload them,I informed my sister about how it looked in her direction and she replied with its going to chuck it down here,which it did but here although became very dark here it didn't do anything not a drop,this has happened before,years ago north bristol had a mental hail storm which I was there to witness but south Bristol had nothing the sun was shining and was a nice fine day,goes to show what a few miles does,Today has been crazy,I've had to change 3 times due to being soaked through,lots of over flowing drains,surface water etc,hope it moves on soon as the dog needs walking and I don't plan on changing for a 4th time,as for tomorrow and this is speaking from experience and the many MANY let downs I'm not expecting any storms here there's never storms here,I'm 99.9 sure of it,good luck everyone but many let downs for the usual people as always the case.

[legritter]

loads and loads of potential looking at tomorrows charts and given that dew points will be good and strong sun ,anywhere could be hit , wed morning at 5am i saw 3 massive storms developing out over bristol chan and bridge water bay ,missed me but very impressive , i think they hit other parts of som and dorset . iv had a look back over the yrs and plenty of action can happen in mid summer and surprises pop up unexpectantly . and we dont need massive cloud heights . hope we all see something cheers

[wimblettben]

I must admit, I will be very gutted if we don't get anything thundery tomorrow as we have been stupidly unlucky this year so far.

No doubt London will get the thunder and Southwest England will just get showers.

Edited July 12, 2012 by wimblettben