Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[Cloudwatcher]

Can anyone give me any hope for any action in this area this afternoon/ evening. We seem to be right on the edge of that covergence zone?

[AWD]

Can anyone give me any hope for any action in this area this afternoon/ evening. We seem to be right on the edge of that covergence zone?

If you have a spare few hours, it might be worth heading down to somewhere like Stoke if you can. Think the main action will be just to the south of you.

[Staffordshire]

will someone please turn off the 'drizzle' tap!......In a prime area today, latest GFS & hi-res output put a LLC slap bang over the north & west midlands, sitting there until the overnight period...Should any substantial cloud breaks occur I would expect the extra forcing to aid development of heavy showers and thunderstorms right across the Midlands into parts of East Anglia, and storms will appear almost stationary on radar as they back build along outflow boundaries...A weakly sheared enviroment so I personally wouldn't anticipate well organized thunderstorms, as updrafts will be readily swamped by descending rain/cooler although the odd stronger storm isn't out of the question......The main question is, is simply will the cloud break enough along the LLC zone to allow insolation to fire convection?....I have my doubts TBH

Your storm risk zone is too far south IMO

do you not think we are to far north aj?

[Coast]

valid from 13.07.2012 07:00 CET Until 14.07.2012 01:55 CET

Rain Awareness Level: Yellow

Many parts of central and southern England along with Wales will have further spells of rain today which will be heavy in places. The more persistent rain appears more likely across parts of central and eastern England and north Wales whilst across most of southern England and south Wales, local heavy thundery downpours are likely this afternoon and evening.

http://www.meteoalar...=UK&day=0〈=

and here is that area closer up:

[Cloudwatcher]

If you have a spare few hours, it might be worth heading down to somewhere like Stoke if you can. Think the main action will be just to the south of you.

Yeah, thats what I feared. Haven't got the car today! North Staffs seems to be as far north as they have got this year, in terms of getting near to us.

Thanks Active Weather Dude :-)

[Karl83]

How about a mass gathering on the Cotswolds! Lol.

Sounds good. I'm sure we could gather a few starving people to go up there lol. Storm starved btw lol.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Harry]

Just watching Skynews and their news presenter just said there's a warning out for heavy Thunderstorms for central and East Anglia. I can't remember the last time a news presenter warning people of heavy thunderstorms. It's like being in America with their thunderstorm warnings. Lol

Still reeling from the shame of the forecasting cock up on the 28th June I suspect...(apologies if Sky did get it right...but virtually no major tv weather forecast nailed it that I saw, ever since everything is a thunderstorm or a torrential intense thunderstorm or the like.....)

Edited July 13, 2012 by Harry

[AWD]

Sounds good. I'm sure we could gather a few starving people to go up there lol. Storm starved btw lol.

If I wasn't working I would today, seems like I have to start chasing to see storms now, they ain't coming to me anymore.

Looking to my north now and I can see some decent Cb's starting to develop. Not a day to be on a ride at Alton Towers me thinks.

[SalopWatcher]

It really does not seem like the day for T and L here, been grey and murkey, with light rain all morning... and its not clearing at all. Which direction will storms be coming in from today to this area... looks to me from the radar as it would be the south?

[Coast]

I'll stick my neck out here (hey, that makes a change!!) and say in order, West to East, as the day progresses, the main places to start from might be:

Worcester, Banbury, Milton Keynes, Saffron Walden, Ipswich. These surely must put you within 30 miles of some action to the North or South of those locations?

[Lynxus]

Cells really starting to get active south of bristol / SW now..

Sun is out here ( has been most ofthe day )

Cmon my son!

[Cloudwatcher]

It really does not seem like the day for T and L here, been grey and murkey, with light rain all morning... and its not clearing at all. Which direction will storms be coming in from today to this area... looks to me from the radar as it would be the south?

Thats the way it looks on radar but currently our prevailing wind here seems to be from the east!

[AWD]

Cells really starting to get active south of bristol / SW now..

Sun is out here ( has been most ofthe day )

Cmon my son!

They will be the ones that are forecast to run from Somerset, into Wiltshire and into the London area.

[Norfolk Sheep]

No sign of persistent drizzle making an exit. Lovely November day.

[Andy Bown]

Expected to wake up to a overcast sky this morning but as AWD has said the sun is out and clear skies

Yes I admit to being 100% wrong in my prediction of a dull, damp start!

However the outcome is the same with lines of showers running W-E across Somerset into Wiltshire/Dorset, the Northern line is

more active cell wise but no lightning detected yet.

[PolarWarsaw]

Latest BBC forecast shows showers staying predominantly south of Birmingham. There's not much to be optimistic about when you live in the midlands and your a Walsall fan!

[Arnie Pie]

Blue skies and a temp rise.....the odd tower building to the north of me

cameras ready just in-case

Edit; enough blue sky to make a sailor a pair of trousers ...anyway

Edited July 13, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Staffordshire]

Just be extra cautious today if your caught up in a storm, after all it is Friday the 13th!

[Norfolk Sheep]

BBC forecast now showing only drizzly rain for East Anglia, any storms look to be no further north than Essex. I'll get on with the cleaning and ironing then. Will be interesting to see what Look East's take on it is in a few minutes....

[Luke]

Latest BBC forecast shows showers staying predominantly south of Birmingham. There's not much to be optimistic about when you live in the midlands and your a Walsall fan!

Still seems good for here.

[A.J]

Here is in a prime spot today. Satellite shows clearer skies approaching. Convergence Zone is over the South Midlands right now.

Looks to be over the North Midlands to me Luke, at least on radar, as areas of moderate PPN are still pushing northwards through the midlands with a visible clearance pushing in from the SW.....and overhead it's dead calm, indicitive of being right in the middle of the LLC (low level convergence) zone

[Arnie Pie]

Cape & lift seem to be developing quickly to the SW of us in C Wales

[A.J]

Cape & lift seem to be developing quickly to the SW of us in C Wales

Yep....I think you're in a good area AP, ok for me, but need the clearer air to lift northwards a bit yet.....My sweet spot location for today is roughly Worcester to Evesham to Stratford-Upon-Avon for catching a nice storm....A possible chase is in the offing

Edit...A nice discrete cell has fired to the west of Worcester drifting slowly northwards

[Luke]

Cloud is thinning here and a few patches of blue sky are visible. Good sign?

[Karl83]

Dark skies here, the sun has been obscured for a while now. Pops out every now again though.