Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[Suburban Streamer]

Lots of things still pointing to the Midlands for this event. Maybe amber warning soon?

yeah amber warning for east wales across midlands into east anglia. a little too far north for me but fingers crossed!

[Coast]

and now TORRO have joined the party and highlight pretty much the same area as everyone else, so it looks to be a central England thing from the middle of the afternoon onwards and boy are there some showers and full on rain coming!

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 0950GMT on Friday 13th July 2012

Valid from/until: 0950GMT – 2300GMT on Friday 13th July 2012 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Portions of Wales The Midlands and E Anglia

THREATS

Isolated, weak tornadoes; heavy rain; CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

A large upper cold pool covers much of the British Isles and western Scandinavia. A trough will move eastwards across France with a sliver of vorticity pushing into southern and central England. This, along with diurnal heating and a well-marked convergence zone is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms, although coverage will vary due to a fair amount of cloud cover, which may limit the heating in places.

Any showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the above-mentioned surface convergence zone, and also along a potential sea breeze front across west Wales, may ingest and stretch vertical vorticity enough to produce funnel clouds and weak tornadoes. This convergence zone will move slowly southwards through today and this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may continue well into this evening.

Heavy rain is possible in places too due to the slow-moving nature of the storms, along with hail and CG lightning.

[Supacell]

No chance of anything here, but I will be travelling to the Midlands this evening so may be treated to something there. Oh and someone says Met office don't warn for drizzle:

Amber Warning of Rain

Valid from -13 Jul 2012, 02:00

Valid to - 13 Jul 2012, 23:59

Many parts of central and southern England along with Wales will have further spells of drizzle today which will make it dull in places. The more persistent drizzle appears more likely across parts of central and eastern England and north Wales whilst across most of southern England and south Wales, local heavier drizzle showers are likely this afternoon and evening.

The public should be aware that given the crap summer so far across many parts, people may become very miserable and anger during travel may result .

[Lynxus]

Fair amount of convection here.

I can only dream of a storm though

[Luke]

Hoping for some really heavy rain showers here later on.

[staplehurst]

I see Dan on the thread (Staplehurst)..What's your thoughts bud?

I think some places are going to get wet

Cloud cover was always my main worry, but all the models are still keen, albeit since yesterday's output they have shifted the convergence further north.

With the upper trough approaching from the west throughout the day, and swinging overhead tonight, showers will continue to develop through today and tonight, and given the SSTs, this will also promote deeper convection over North Sea/Channel tonight too.

Edited July 13, 2012 by staplehurst

[gottolovethisweather]

will someone please turn off the 'drizzle' tap!......In a prime area today, latest GFS & hi-res output put a LLC slap bang over the north & west midlands, sitting there until the overnight period...Should any substantial cloud breaks occur I would expect the extra forcing to aid development of heavy showers and thunderstorms right across the Midlands into parts of East Anglia, and storms will appear almost stationary on radar as they back build along outflow boundaries...A weakly sheared enviroment so I personally wouldn't anticipate well organized thunderstorms, as updrafts will be readily swamped by descending rain/cooler although the odd stronger storm isn't out of the question......The main question is, is simply will the cloud break enough along the LLC zone to allow insolation to fire convection?....I have my doubts TBH

Your storm risk zone is too far south IMO

What's an LLC AJ?

[Sprites]

Think AJ means low-level convergence @gotolovethisweather

[Suburban Streamer]

[Luke]

Right in the amber zone!

[Harry]

What's an LLC AJ?

Low Level Convergence is my punt

Could be long and painful afternoon for me as everything misses about 10-20 miles to the North.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Harry

[Norfolk Sheep]

Puzzled of Norfolk - how does the forecast override the drizzle and moderate rain feeding into Norfolk from the NW? Answers on a very small postcard please Unless of course the amber warning is actually for this drizzle? Surely not.....

[Nick L]

What's an LLC AJ?

Closest I can think of is the LCL (lifted condensation level), basically where the cloud base is.

http://en.wikipedia....densation_level

Edit: Or that Harry!

Edited July 13, 2012 by Nick L

[Lynxus]

Showers seem to be increasing in intensity down south.

Nothing too exciting as yet.

Time is ticking and not much has exploded yet. Could be any time now.

[Hathers]

Just watching Skynews and their news presenter just said there's a warning out for heavy Thunderstorms for central and East Anglia. I can't remember the last time a news presenter warning people of heavy thunderstorms. It's like being in America with their thunderstorm warnings. Lol

[legritter]

humidity increased ,wind calmer ,a few cells developing ,who will be the lucky stormers north of m4 or south, still to play for ,i say bring it on ,lets milk it dry before mr azores pops up ,cheers

[PolarWarsaw]

Can't see it here in all honesty. Its going to take a while for this rain to stop which radar suggests wont be happening anytime soon, then we have to get rid of this muck and all this while the sun still has any sort of potency. I dont feel it today.

[AWD]

The Sun is really breaking through now and it is getting quiet warm out there. If there aren't going to be any storms today then it could turn out to be a warm summers day. Not bad as a second choice i suppose!

Edited July 13, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Luke]

Can't see it here in all honesty. Its going to take a while for this rain to stop which radar suggests wont be happening anytime soon, then we have to get rid of this muck and all this while the sun still has any sort of potency. I dont feel it today.

You never feel optimistic

Edited July 13, 2012 by Luke

[Karl83]

Might make a trip to the Cotswolds after work. Gotta be better than waiting for something in this Stormless City. Showers looking heavier down south now.

[Costa Del Fal]

Here is in a prime spot today. Satellite shows clearer skies approaching. Convergence Zone is over the South Midlands right now.

[Luke]

Here is in a prime spot today. Satellite shows clearer skies approaching. Convergence Zone is over the South Midlands right now.

Got to love a bit of optimism aha

Weather forecast just said torrential rain, hail and strong winds.

[Coast]

That's pretty much the area from what everything/everyone is pointing to.

Plenty going on too!

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow this place is starting to come alive but what about the storms?

Me and my good friend are thinking of chasing this afternoon, if we need to head into Oxfordshire, can someone inform me of good vantage points around that way.

Many Thanks

gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

How about a mass gathering on the Cotswolds! Lol.