Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[AWD]

Heavy shower here now. Looking at the radar, those cells in Somerset seem to be drifting ever so slightly north, meaning a soaking for my location this afternoon

Nothing thundery in them however.

[gottolovethisweather]

Think AJ means low-level convergence @gotolovethisweather

Cheers

[Karl83]

Heavy shower here now. Looking at the radar, those cells in Somerset seem to be drifting ever so slightly north, meaning a soaking for my location this afternoon

Nothing thundery in them however.

Where are you in Bristol AWD?

[Suburban Streamer]

Isn't it a bit early for storms yet? Looking at gfs and other charts on lightning wizard, it seems late afternoon / early evening is the time for storms? Those charts Coast posted earlier are for between 6 and 9pm. Unless I'm being very dumb lol? Wouldn't be the first or last time!

The amber warning is valid from 230

[AWD]

Where are you in Bristol AWD?

Bristol Temple Meads

[Coast]

Isn't it a bit early for storms yet? Looking at gfs and other charts on lightning wizard, it seems late afternoon / early evening is the time for storms? Those charts Coast posted earlier are for between 6 and 9pm. Unless I'm being very dumb lol? Wouldn't be the first or last time!

Around 18.00hrs onwards if it get's the trigger I imagine?

[Harry]

Around 18.00hrs onwards if it get's the trigger I imagine?

Things went bang in the SE around 3pm onwards on Wedneday, with peaking activity from 6pm onwards.

With conditions today fairly similar to Wednesday, I would expect it to pan out in a similar fashion.

First stronger looking cells now developing in the West/SW

[Norfolk Sheep]

Aaaaaaaaaand.....waving my magic wand and transforming drizzle into a TS....poof!!!!!!

[Staffordshire]

What direction will the cells be heading this evening/night! sorry at work and cant read through/look at radar!

[gottolovethisweather]

Aaaaaaaaaand.....waving my magic wand and transforming drizzle into a TS....poof!!!!!!

Careful, you'll be put in the NSC.

Things went bang in the SE around 3pm onwards on Wedneday, with peaking activity from 6pm onwards.

With conditions today fairly similar to Wednesday, I would expect it to pan out in a similar fashion.

First stronger looking cells now developing in the West/SW

Indeed Harry, looking good for folks heading to the south cotswolds within the hour I would say.

Edited July 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Methuselah]

Sun's come out. Hopefully a good sign for later this arvo?

[gottolovethisweather]

Wow this place is starting to come alive but what about the storms?

Me and my good friend are thinking of chasing this afternoon, if we need to head into Oxfordshire, can someone inform me of good vantage points around that way.

Many Thanks

gottolovethisweather

Further to my post earlier. Any ideas guys n gals?

Edited July 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks to be over the North Midlands to me Luke, at least on radar, as areas of moderate PPN are still pushing northwards through the midlands with a visible clearance pushing in from the SW.....and overhead it's dead calm, indicitive of being right in the middle of the LLC (low level convergence) zone

Ahh, I was looking on XC Weather which showed winds converging around Gloucester earlier Im sure but doesnt look so now. This cloud is struggling to shift anyway so am slightly beginning to doubt our chances now though a good few hours left.

[AWD]

Further to my post earlier. Any ideas guys n gals?

You could try Lickey, but it isn't the easiest place to get too.

Otherwise somewhere like Chipping Norton or Cleeve hill are both high up and open places, both in line with a storm later today.

[Andy Bown]

We've had a period of warm sunshine in West Wiltshire which has raised the temp to 18.7c and there is now a very heavy line of downpours

running SSW-NNE between Yeovil-Malmesbury with the cells pulsing along that direction while the line as whole moves roughly Eastwards.

As far as I know there's no lightning been detected yet but it's this line which could be the trouble maker as it continues East through the afternoon

with current rates in the cell cores at between 30mm to 70mm per hour.

It seems to trail down towards Exeter too so may continue to keep building in a SW direction.

[Wet'n'Dry]

My local radio station is forecasting a months rain this evening alone. Is there any credibility in that or is it just scare mongering?

[Marcus_surfer]

If that area of precipitation over mid/west Wales doesnt get thundery I will eat my iPad.

[Harry]

My local radio station is forecasting a months rain this evening alone. Is there any credibility in that or is it just scare mongering?

Well, if Basildon is slap bang under the CZ (if it develops) then I don't think it's that outlandish...CZ storms, which form a line and persist for several hours can drop considerable amounts of rainfall in a short space of time.

The precise location of where the CZ forms however is up for debate at the moment, with an area from say the Wash southwards to Essex/North Kent, then Westwards across N London, S Midlands towards Wales being picked out as a favoured zone...the actual CZ may only be a few miles across so much of the MetO amber warning zone may not see a drop of rain, while others may see a month's worth...you just don't know.

To summarise, I'd say the yes there's potential for signficant rainfall totals today - by no means a guarantee a single drop will fall in Basildon (if that makes sense)

Certainly for around here, doesn't seem remotely thundery at all, nothing close to what it looked/felt like on Wednesday!

Edited July 13, 2012 by Harry

[Coast]

My local radio station is forecasting a months rain this evening alone. Is there any credibility in that or is it just scare mongering?

I guess it depends on which month they're thinking of!!!!

There is quite a bit of rain coming, I'm just not sure it's any different from days over the previous 2 weeks:

[Eskimo]

My local radio station is forecasting a months rain this evening alone. Is there any credibility in that or is it just scare mongering?

July average I think is about 60mm, I can't see that being beaten tonight.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Great explanation, thanks Harry and Coast/P.S.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Wet'n'Dry

[Bobby]

Not much convection showing here at all and that heavy line in west Wales doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

[Lynxus]

Looks like its gonna stay pretty damn dry round here. Good luck those north and south of us.

[NW Leeds Russ]

That preciptation midlands / north england is certainly pepping up..

Gone dark here in Leeds city centre and started raining heavily.

May get some action later however no real solar heating today...

[Cloudwatcher]

Absolutely stinking day here now. Constant drizzle, blown in by a slow moving easterly/ north-easterly (which is also blowing vast amounts of petro-chemical pollution over the town)...had to wear a fleece to go out before, I've got the temp hovering round 13c....and it is showing no signs of letting up. 100% blanket stratus cloud too. Please someone give me hope haha!