Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[legritter]

just had a look at next weeks charts and data . you can all make up your own minds on potential , but with plenty of energy building to our south after next wednesday we will have to keep our cameras on hand . tonights met fax 120 hrs will be an interesting chart . then tomorrow all the big 3 will be interesting to watch as im sure we will see some changes .iv been on a few european especially spain por and french sites ,not just weather sights but chat rooms etc including people who deal with outside work and the talk is wet stormy thundery downpours ,as ever i read between the lines ,they are talking about their country but we are not far away , of course at this stage it can all go pear shape i bet theres many an editor who is getting worried especially after todays headlines in SOME of the papers . of course we coULD FINISH UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER US BUT I DOUGHT IT ,HOPE THOSE WHO HAD ACTION TODAY enjoyed . look foreward to next week perhaps sport and weather will be the main headlines .

[NorthYorksWeather]

Ensembles look interesting for southern areas towards the end of the week.

Cape ensembles for London:

As we head further North the risky for storms in lesser, but we can hope it extends North as the week goes on

[Chris W]

That could be epic next week, bigger even than a couple of weeks back in the midlands and north east. Would love more of that energy/more negative LI and other condusive factors to push north west.

[SimonP]

Quite a change with the 18Z GFS run as you'd maybe expect - sees an abundance of CAPE over in France on 26th! On the 27th, still quite "nice" CAPE values in southern parts. (SB)CAPE present at 00Z even. Does look like a bit of an eastern shift though from the previous run. Guess we can expect such chopping and changing at such timeframes...

Needless to say, this is going to be an interesting one to watch unfold...

Edited July 20, 2012 by SimonP

[mattyk1985]

Quite a change with the 18Z GFS run as you'd maybe expect - sees an abundance of CAPE over in France on 26th! On the 27th, still quite "nice" CAPE values in southern parts. (SB)CAPE present at 00Z even. Does look like a bit of an eastern shift though from the previous run. Guess we can expect such chopping and changing at such timeframes...

Needless to say, this is going to be an interesting one to watch unfold...

At least its still there which is good, as we get to a day or two out it should give us an idea where the likely areas are(if any).

[SimonP]

At least its still there which is good, as we get to a day or two out it should give us an idea where the likely areas are(if any).

Indeed. At least the potential is there, many factors still remain - need to see what synoptics will be like nearer the time.

In the meantime, we can all enjoy the BBQs

[AWD]

Any chance we can bank the GFS for Friday. Pleaseeeeeeeeee.

[Chris W]

Talk about a crazy chart, that 00z run for Friday afternoon and evening is mental! Saturday isn't bad either, but a tad overshadowed...

Edited July 21, 2012 by Chris W

[Coast]

Don't know how accurate he is though with his sun watching method.

Not as accurate as the newspaper headlines would like you to believe maybe?

Anyway, on to convective things and the real world, if GFS comes off then Friday would start early in the morning and rattle around all day:

Currently looks like everyone from the Midlands down would get a storm, but then we are a week away and just like the value of your investments..............

[Chris K]

I simply don't trust the GFS when its still 5-6 days ahead.

It does look interesting though. Shame that most likely it will downgrade too much and shift too far away to miss us as per usual.

Edited July 21, 2012 by Chris K

[AWD]

Ahhh, so this is why we shouldnt follow every run!

Ruddy GFS, why cant it just be easy and we can all enjoy some summer weather with a guarenteed bang at the end. Think its best to leave it for now, get our butts down to the beach and come back in a few days and see where we stand then.

[mattyk1985]

Huge downgrade from the latest run at least its still there though and its bound to keep swapping and changing.

Few decent looking clouds about here right now, looks like we could get a shower.

Edited July 21, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Harry]

Agonising over GFS charts 7 days in advance in relation to storm chances............no comment!!!!!

[camiscool]

you guys r just being unreasonable would you rather the olympic opening ceremony to be a success or just so you can go see your little storm yyaaaay!

[AWD]

you guys r just being unreasonable would you rather the olympic opening ceremony to be a success or just so you can go see your little storm yyaaaay!

Couldn't give a damn about the Olympics if im honest with you. Sooner they are over the better. And I am fully entitled to that opinion and don't care what anyone else thinks.

Storms rule.

[chionomaniac]

you guys r just being unreasonable would you rather the olympic opening ceremony to be a success or just so you can go see your little storm yyaaaay!

This is a storm thread!

I will only be upset if I see a storm over the opening ceremony and not over me.

[Eskimo]

you guys r just being unreasonable would you rather the olympic opening ceremony to be a success or just so you can go see your little storm yyaaaay!

I think you have just stumbled across a weather forum sir, how unreasonable of us to discuss the possibility of weather.

Edited July 21, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[mattyk1985]

you guys r just being unreasonable would you rather the olympic opening ceremony to be a success or just so you can go see your little storm yyaaaay!

Well although the Olympics are alright, storms win everytime.

Edited July 21, 2012 by mattyk1985

[gottolovethisweather]

If the GFS's 00z output were to verify (runs prior have shown near enough the same setup), it wouldn't translate into anywhere near as significant an event as on June 28th. Then, not only did we have a very unstable boundary layer, the shear environment aloft was such that it allowed for the sort of severe convective weather witnessed that day.

High CAPE/moisture environment alone is good for your traditional summertime thunderstorms - generally non-severe but with perhaps the chance of mutilcell clusters as storms develop INVOF the outflow of others - but it's the shear environment that is key to severe convective weather

I do like the way you imply that without a doubt, it would NOT be anywhere near as significant. For one thing, are the models showing CAPE and shear profiles nailed on at t+120 hrs plus? In other words, are the models predictions based on ONE run, taken as gospel????

From my non-technical point of view and being not as qualified as your good self and others on here, I do feel the ingredients will be brewing up nicely in the forthcoming days. As Harry says quite rightly it is way off yet and from that, my own assumption and yours is pie in the sky for now. Please don't dash people's hopes or fears from such a ludicrous timescale but I will look forward to your thoughts come the middle of next week.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Whatever the chances are, we shall need to keep a close eye on all of this. With heat such as 30c in place in parts of the UK, that is a key ingredient to such big storms that have been witnessed over the past decade. I remember 2000-2006 being very rich in decent storms. We also saw a lot more heat in them years too, which correlates nicely. We are all starving for a big beefy plume from France/Spain to erupt, and i think this week could be a key opportunity for this. To everyone, may I wish the best to happen, keep those cameras close by!

[gottolovethisweather]

*sigh* It is hard work posting on this forum, especially when your name isn't Nick F, Paul Sherman, Coast or whoever else is regarded as 'elite' in their respective interests.

I'll just quote the first part of the opening sentence of my post:

My knowledge tells me that what follows after in that post would turn out to be true.

Fair enough then, perhaps I misjudged your post as being certain that the weather would pan out as blah blah blah. No one is above anybody else in this world, we all have our rightful place and I'm hear to learn from all, whatever their status. The weather will always fool us in the end.

Have you had a chance to analyse the GFS 06z output yet or any other for that matter. Second thoughts, don't bother for now as your analysis at this stage is good enough.

Much respect w09.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Whatever the chances are, we shall need to keep a close eye on all of this. With heat such as 30c in place in parts of the UK, that is a key ingredient to such big storms that have been witnessed over the past decade. I remember 2000-2006 being very rich in decent storms. We also saw a lot more heat in them years too, which correlates nicely. We are all starving for a big beefy plume from France/Spain to erupt, and i think this week could be a key opportunity for this. To everyone, may I wish the best to happen, keep those cameras close by!

Indeed, part of which my original post, to which W09 replied, was trying to imply, albeit non-technically.

Edited July 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[NUT]

To be perfectly honest? I am looking forward to the olympics but not the ceremonies (opening and closing) as it will be long, drawn out affairs which will probably last for hours but might just watch to see if there might be some flashes in the air (about as much as i'll see as there seems nought chance of anything up here)

[mattyk1985]

Ha! Good luck telling that to some on here.

Apologies if I came across as rude, by the way. I'm just tired of the fact that an 'elitist' culture has made its way onto a weather forum. Members fawning over others who they regard as godlike in whatever area of meteorology is being discussed at the time. I literally cringe when I witness it.

But, I guess that's the society we live in.

I like reading your input as I do everyone elses. I find this forum very helpful and I have learnt loads while Ive been on here.

[Harry]

If the GFS's 00z output were to verify (runs prior have shown near enough the same setup), it wouldn't translate into anywhere near as significant an event as on June 28th. Then, not only did we have a very unstable boundary layer, the shear environment aloft was such that it allowed for the sort of severe convective weather witnessed that day.

High CAPE/moisture environment alone is good for your traditional summertime thunderstorms - generally non-severe but with perhaps the chance of mutilcell clusters as storms develop INVOF the outflow of others - but it's the shear environment that is key to severe convective weather

The jet stream is not a pre-requisite for severe weather. Furthermore, "epic" and "large" storms are a matter of subjectivity. Storms can erupt under areas of High Pressure, especially from thermal thundery surface lows which can develop under the conditions progged over the coming week.

No storm which developed on the 28th June could compete with a classic, imported French MCS, in terms of scale or in terms of electric activity....that is a fact and what our friend Chris W was hinting at, I think! However, where I completely agree with you, is that most storms which do develop under the up coming Synoptics are much less likely to be 'severe' because the jet stream is away etc etc.

Therefore, severe squalls, tornadoes and large hail would in my view be far less likely....epic, huge storms though are still more than possible, which could certainly dwarf those the Midlands/NE saw in late June...in my view.