Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Harry]

Well, I suppose all I can say is I disagree with much of what you've said there, Harry.

Might as well leave it there.

I generally disagreed with the content of your dismissive and rather typically patronising response to Chris W, but at least had to decency to address both the areas I agreed and disagreed with...for succinctness, I'll address the first paragraph of my post for the benefit of others...

Thunderstorms CAN form under High pressure...fact!!

Thundery lows can develop under High Pressure leading to storms...fact!

Classic French MCS are typically larger than the 28th June storms....fact!!

Jet stream is not a pre requisite for severe thunderstorm activity...fact!!!

"epic" and "large" are subjective...unless you have a formal, objective scale to the contrary....then, fact!!!

Sod it I'm on a roll,

Classic French MCS' are generally larger...fact

Generally more electrically active...I have no hard statistics but am confident in the assertion based on what I've witnessed over the years both visually and via radar/sferic data at the time

Up and coming Synoptics are less favourable for severe weather than the 28th June...fact

Epic/huge storms are possible which could dwarf the midlands/NE storms....of course they're possible...not likely but if MCS type features emerged then of course possible

To simply say you frankly disagree with everything I've said and you'll "might as well leave it there" is the pinnacle of rudeness and sheer arrogance (no punne intended). It undermines your quite clearly superior meteorological knowledge and forecasting aptitude, which is a huge, huge shame to be honest!

Edited July 21, 2012 by Harry

[Supacell]

From my experience I do find storms that move up from the continent (28th June 2005 for example) to be more spectacular from a lightning pov, especially if they are around overnight. Many a time when I was younger I remember being treated to hours of overnight lightning shows from these set ups from the continent. There is also the fact that those storms that occur as a result of high temperatures breaking a cap unleashing the "loaded gun" scenario to be very electrically active also.

The storms on the 28th June this year were characterised by very frequent IC lightning, but they weren't (at least from what I saw) the most spectacular from a lightning standpoint. However, I agree that the kind of severe weather associated with these storms (large hail, strong wind gusts, tornadoes) is unlikely to be repeated from a straight up storm from the continent whereby there is less wind shear/helicity. But it depends what you personally go for... i personally prefer lightning over any other form of thunderstorm weather, although thats not to say I am not excited by all forms of thunderstorm severe weather and not to say I was not in awe at the severity of the storm I saw in Lincolnshire on the 28th.

Oh and olympics vs storms... if i picked the olympics i wouldn't be on here. Storms every time

Of course, come midweek things will probably look very much different anyway.

[UKVoodoo]

Wow some people just cant let things go can they

We're supposed to be storm lovers in this forum not chidlish brats playing one upsmanship!

Start acting like it EVERYONE!

[Nick L]

Come on folks, let's not let this descend into a playground.

[Jane Louise]

Oooh dear! I come on here after a lovely day in the sunshine to see members argueing again. Please, this a friendly convective discussion thread.We all love our storms and it does not really matter who's more knowledgeable then who! Come on now, we could have some excitement Friday if those storms in France decide to drift up North into the Uk. Please let's all be nice after all, you are all usually a great bunch so please no more nitpicking!!

[Robbie Garrett]

Classic French MCS' are generally larger...fact

Generally more electrically active...I have no hard statistics but am confident in the assertion based on what I've witnessed over the years both visually and via radar/sferic data at the time

Yeah, I remember them from my childhood very well... crazy storms. Which this video greatly shows.

Nothing ever beats a Classic French MCS... and this is very similar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vlMW1dUivE

[legritter]

evening gang ,nice and spicy on here tonight .im going to enjoy the next 3/4 days working up in garden .then after about wednesday im getting me old camera out with tripod and setting it up for night time electrical storms ,howling thunder, and 25mm rain in under 30minutes .sitting outside at midnight and reading the paper by LIGHTNING FLASHES .all this will happen but as many of us are aware ,it could be almost anywhere across england or wales ,let the people who want dry olympics have their day and us storm troopers have our natures fury ,iv had a look on a few weather forums in the uk and in europe and the feeling is a thun /breakdown after wed from the south then later a lot of hvy showery rain circulating around the main low as it slowly drifts away n/e but of course all subject to change ,any body about after 11 pm this evening can see the 120fax from met office keep an eye on pressure over spain por and france and compare it to forecast chart from 24hrs ago on gfs and ecm ,we dont want pressure that low .i have seen some spectacular events over the past 40/50 yrs from these set ups .but bear in mind these events usually occur iver smaller ares ,but sometimes theres more of them .cheers

[onahigh]

Well i think our current skies are trying to tell us something about the coming weeks weather

Tonights Mackerel sky sunset

Edited July 21, 2012 by onahigh

[Sprites]

I dont think any storms this week will dwarfe the storms in the east midlands and North east in june ,they were pretty much at highest intensity that the U.K. ever sees , 85mm hailstones , tornadoes ,continuess thunder would be hard to beat!, and you would definately need help from the jetstream to get anyware near that level.

[A.J]

Come on folks, let's not let this descend into a playground.

Yes, it's absolutely ridiculous....after all, everyone in the civilized world knows 'godlike' & 'ajpoolshark' are synonymous when uttered with awestruck reverence in this thread

MORTALS......Hear thy devine words and tremble in my prescence...

'El Brumo II, III & IV are coming!!'

Disclaimer...This is what happens folks when I come in after a hard days graft, quaff half a bottle of red because I'm thirsty & then read some of the silly bickering!....There is no 'elitism' in here, everyone's posts are respected (well, at least I respect 'em) so please, grab yourselves a glass of vino, relax and enjoy what the weather might have to offer us

[gottolovethisweather]

MORTALS......Hear thy devine words and tremble in my prescence...

'El Brumo II, III & IV are coming!!'

Disclaimer...This is what happens folks when I come in after a hard days graft, quaff half a bottle of red because I'm thirsty & then read some of the silly bickering!....There is no 'elitism' in here, everyone's posts are respected (well, at least I respect 'em) so please, grab yourselves a glass of vino, relax and enjoy what the weather might have to offer us

Your posts would win the Elite humour award on most days, though.

Were you planning this to be your 5,000th post, if not, CONGRATULATIONS anyway AJ.

As to comments concerning the 28th June storms, I only caught a daugther cell prior to the main action in Warwickshire. My cell occured prior to mid morning and had thunderclaps every second or so then. As that lot drifted northeastwards it must have truly been a corker. For the reality of that particular situation, see the attached video, paying attention from 1min 25 secs onwards.

Nevertheless, like others, I would personally prefer a night-time storm breakdown, which can equally rival the best of the bestest IMHO. It should also offer some relief from the very warm nights to come for a select few.

Enjoy the heat over the next few days in a sensible fashion and let's hope an MCS can reach our shores once again. It'll feel like Christmas has come up for the lucky few

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Robbie Garrett]

'El Brumo II, III & IV are coming!!'

French Import is coming... for London and the South East

One lightning we may get if he hits the target is

[gottolovethisweather]

CAN WE PLEASE NOW STICK TO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION, NOT CONVICTIVE DISCUSSION.

[Chris W]

Indeed. Let's leave it there now, shall we?

Hi Weather09. I'll pass on the above discussion but thanks for your reply - whilst I have studied geography extensively including meteorology (and long been passionate about both) I haven't the time to study the charts as perhaps yourself or others have, and will certainly yield to greater experience. The UK climate and weather is so variable and unpredictable at times that all number of things come into play. I may be wrong about this week being of a similar or greater magnitude than the 28th of June, and the conditions were indeed very favourable there (save for around here) - the comment was perhaps led by the extreme quantities of available energy forecast on the 00z run and I would still consider it valid. I do not take CAPE and LI alone as indicative of storm potential, but they are a good baseline indicator and there is could well be a good setup regarding both if the models hold - even with the 06z downgrade. I do not know what the other parameters are looking like at the moment, but perhaps they could turn out well for storms nearer the time? I see on the 12z that we have been upgraded slightly around here, and that Saturday now looks more interesting too.

[Jane Louise]

Good to see we are back on topic. Regarding Friday potential let's hope it follows through! It's going to be a nail biting time that's for sure.

[Eskimo]

Anyone got any charts/models to post here? Looking pretty silent.

[mattyk1985]

Anyone got any charts/models to post here? Looking pretty silent.

Latest ones are not out yet. Last run was good for this area for Saturday. Regarding Friday I may travel to Peterbor depending on how things look nearer the time.

[Keraunic]

So, are we to expect some cracking storms next week then? I've looked at a chart or two ( still much to learn but I've learnt so much while I've been here) and from what my inexperienced eyes can see it looks quiet. I guess one should wait for updates.

[mattyk1985]

So, are we to expect some cracking storms next week then? I've looked at a chart or two ( still much to learn but I've learnt so much while I've been here) and from what my inexperienced eyes can see it looks quiet. I guess one should wait for updates.

Its quiet up until next weekend on Friday and Saturday there is a fair bit of potential around but because its quite a way out its all subject to change.

Edited July 21, 2012 by mattyk1985

[gottolovethisweather]

So, are we to expect some cracking storms next week then? I've looked at a chart or two ( still much to learn but I've learnt so much while I've been here) and from what my inexperienced eyes can see it looks quiet. I guess one should wait for updates.

Spot on, I will let you know, come Saturday 28th.

As for your second highlighted idea, indeed it is far too early to tell.

Many of the model outputs suggest a clash of airmasses come the latter part of next week, so fingers crossed. Never forget the CAPE,LI,Fax Charts etc. are all JUST SIMPLY projections of what COULD happen in the future. Everything should be taken with a very large pinch of salt at this time.

Stay tuned to this thread and the MOD thread and listen to the knowledgeable ones (oh no! ) Make of it what you will and then wait for it to happen or more likely, not to happen. One thing is for sure, the heat and humidity will be building and may become unbearable (more especially at night) for some in the coming days. One's location in the UK being particularly relevant here.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Keraunic]

Cheers guys. Knowing my luck it'll be stormy in Norwich again when I'm in Ipswich like this week. Fingers crossed indeed.

[Chris W]

One's location in the UK being particularly relevant here.

Lincolnshire?

[AWD]

If the 0z GFS is anything to go by, then storms will be rather sparse, If any at all.

Ages to go yet anyway.

[Coast]

Oh dear, fickle convection eh??!!!!! Next weekend still looking good, albeit so far away!!!

[Evening thunder]

If I'm honest I wouldn't get too excited unfortunately as many of the models (ECM,UKMO, GEM) slide the low and all the fun to the east with us being hit dead on by a northerly (as usual). Considering the GFS was correct when it first picked out a return to cool unsettled stuff at the weekend, I'd hope it is correct now but I doubt it as usually the ECM/UKMO are better and the GFS is only allowed to be correct when it shows the worst outcome this summer

Would be nice to get something though.

Edited July 22, 2012 by Stormmad26