Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Keraunic]

Here's today's video examining the possibility of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday;

http://gavsweathervids.com/

As ever the risk of thunder in the UK is uncertain, but the threat is there.

The more I watch these videos with the explanations the more I know what to look for in charts. Thank you. Great job.

[Keraunic]

Another question for the experts. Twice in the last few days the Flash Warnings on the home page have reported lightning. Ok. So both times I have gone to the lightning chart to see where expecting it to be in Scotland somewhere; but both times it's been in areas (once just NE of Ipswich) where there has been no obvious rain on radar.

Is the lightning detector at fault or is this some kind of weather phenomena like 'A bolt from the blue'?

[Coast]

Is it all going East then????

How about we all just go to France for the day?

Still time for change - for better or worse!!!!

[Coast]

Of course, then we have Sunday into Monday.......

If round one doesn't deliver the knockout - will round 2???!!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

I'd rather it didn't for once - I'll be at the Riverbank Area on Monday and Greenwich Park on Tuesday!

[legritter]

looking at todays data it still looks to me like [GAME ON ] the potential still there but locations not yet forecastable ,as is always the case in this type of synoptic situation . but plenty of possibilitys fri and then another possibility early next week ,not going to get to excited untill wednesday met office updates thats another good 24hrs away and by then we should get some idea on surface low dev over france and strengh of front to our north /west / and the building heat and any developments to our s/west as regards pressure ,ps notice how short and short lasting the contrails from jets are ,expect these to get longer again as the upper prifile of the air changes ,best of luck all ,cheers legritter

[Coast]

Current GFS stlll has Sunday through Monday's CAPE and LI figures in the acceptable range:

Although the simple format moves Sundays storms slightly West:

Then Monday is back again:

[Coast]

Friday still looking possible in the far SE where I am, but Sunday subsiding a little with only isolated possibilities:

Would love to be in France though!!!!!!

Interestingly though there is something showing for EA during the night which might be exciting!

Fingers crossed in East Sussex and Kent late Friday afternoon!!!!

[Chris W]

Looks like our only chance is tomorrow as the risk seems to have diminished for other days, but there's a good focus of energy and potentially rising air around then so who knows? It looks like the colder air from the north west begins to move in during tomorrow over here, and if the humidity of this week is sustained (it has been very hot and very close) I'm encouraged by that.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Chris W

[Cloudwatcher]

Looks like our only chance is tomorrow as the risk seems to have diminished for other days, but there's a good focus of energy and potentially rising air around then so who knows? It looks like the colder air from the north west begins to move in during tomorrow over here, and if the humidity of this week is sustained (it has been very hot and very close) I'm encouraged by that.

Fingers crossed! Feels like we have been building up to something. Could surprise us!

[Harry]

Friday still looking possible in the far SE where I am, but Sunday subsiding a little with only isolated possibilities:

Fingers crossed in East Sussex and Kent late Friday afternoon!!!!

Well, I'm heading down to Dymchurch Thursday night for a long weekend with the ball and chain. Fingers crossed I might see something from the coast during the evening, get to try out my new tripod

Definitely hope rather than expectation though.

[Coast]

Well, I'm heading down to Dymchurch Thursday night for a long weekend with the ball and chain. Fingers crossed I might see something from the coast during the evening, get to try out my new tripod

Good choice H and I don't mean just taking the other half!!!!! Definitely got the fingers crossed here for a later afternoon light show, even if it's only out to sea.

Current sweet spot is around 18.00 hrs locally for me:

[Coast]

Just waiting now for the Hi-Res charts to come into the time frame.....

[Harry]

Just waiting now for the Hi-Res charts to come into the time frame.....

Indeed, timing is going to be crucial. It is a very complex scenario with discreet LP centres coming from the North and South, a fading HP system and waving fronts in between.

Not your classic scenario by any stretch of the imagination, a nice neat depression moving in from the S/SW...as has been the case so far this summer it's going to be a smothering by areas of LP on this occasion from all angles, literally!!!!

[Coast]

It's all starting to slide a bit too far West for Kent.........

In fact, inevitably, it's disappeared altogether!

[A.J]

some nice convection bubbling up to my east, some big towers, no doubt responding to some wind convergence running along the spine of the peak district

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

some nice convection bubbling up to my east, some big towers, no doubt responding to some wind convergence running along the spine of the peak district

I was thinking that too, to my West in Peterborough, 27-28 degrees with some good convective towers forming !

[Karl83]

Girlfriend just text saying clouds bubbling in Stroud area. Not sure how much though.

EDIT: A lot of convection outside here too. Especially to my West.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Coast]

Oh dear, I wish I hadn't looked at the Hi-Res charts now. Guess what? Those Frenchies keep the lot

Maybe a slight chance of hearing/seeing something out to sea?

Either that or storm fans are going to have to start filling in The Channel?

[legritter]

evening afternoon posters ,a little bit of cloud bubbling up here but mostly nearer high ground . noticed contrails today a bit longer and lasting a tadge longer ,just a bit more of the right conditions higher up ,tomorrow im hoping for some fun to start .although at this moment its hard to predict exact locations and time .lets all get a good sleep tonight and wait till tomorrows charts etc . im sure that there will be many breeding grounds during thurs and friday for showers etc , but who is going to get the cream is still to be decided by mother nature . the arrival of front from west and n/west is critical plus tomorrows temperatures and developements down over france all add to the mix as well .location could be very critical on any severe developments IF they occur . anyone with interests on olympic open ,at the moment anything nasty if it developes to that extent at this range could be gone through or on its way ,its going to be a close thing ,looking at charts and data for early to mid week next ,there are countless possibilities but as usual to far away but certainly no heatwave .enjoy the sun cheers

[Harry]

Well, the humidity feels as if it is on the climb!!! Yesterday's 30C was much nicer compared to today's!!!

Coast, fear not...we get nothing these days from our continental friends...we should have come to expect it these days.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If I could, I would fill in the bay of biscay from the tip of NW Spain all the way to Ireland + the English Channel, and then cover that entire surface black for the heat to be absorbed! Imagine the storms we'd all get then eh! Would be convective heaven.

[Supacell]

Anyone fancy a trip over to France on Friday to reminise about what we USED to get?

[Mesoscale]

well its decided then im moving to mainland europe after university. Atleast they get a variety of weather there unlike her where its either everything or nothing.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the fax chart it does show a trough in the Channel which edges east as that weak front from the nw pushes se later on Friday afternoon.

I think at the moment any storms look most likely for East Sussex and Kent, If you want a major light show I think you need to hop on the ferry and get over to France.

For you lightning addicts you certainly would like being close to the Pyrenees, you can get some amazing displays, sometimes its dry here with storms in the mountains and with the right conditions with storms on the south facing side you can get a clear view of the mountains on the northern side at night as the lightning gives the most eerie light, I've never seen that type of light before in the UK.

Personally I'm a bit phobic regarding storms, either I worry the lightning is going to hit the house, or we end up with a power cut, inevitably theres always something good on the television as the satellite gives up the ghost!

Certainly I'm happy to see any storms stay in the Channel for Friday and keep clear of London!