Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Coast]

What's the chances for EA tomorrow?

TBH it's looking like a 'me me me' thing!!!!! Check it out here:

http://www.netweathe...gi?action=wist;

My chances are better than 50/50, but I'm not putting any money on it yet!

[Coast]

Just to illustrate that it's not my usual OTT enthusiasm making me sound IMBY for tomorrow, these are the Netweather extra charts for 18Z tomorrow (please sign up and buy them though!!):

Beachy Head then?!!!!!!

Photo courtesy Andy Phillips

[TonyH]

Dark cumuli building over the higher ground just south and east with a nw sea breeze setting up here. Could bode well for a few storms into the west midlands and nw later today.

[Biggin]

Edited July 26, 2012 by Biggin

[Biggin]

Hmmn cant add text Current chart for 1200 tomorrow (previous post). Beckenham Crematorium seems to be at the centre of the opposing forces. I wonder why.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Biggin

[camiscool]

Will Paris get any thundery weather tomorrow?

[Staffordshire]

Will Paris get any thundery weather tomorrow?

maybe, maybe not.... as with storms you could get a hammering yet a few minutes down the road could be dry... however Paris looks a good spot.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like something trying to ignite over Wales...

[Cloudwatcher]

Looks like something trying to ignite over Wales...

Don't know about your neck of the woods but it's gone horribly sticky and humid in the last two hours. Feeling very "heavy" if that makes sense.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Don't know about your neck of the woods but it's gone horribly sticky and humid in the last two hours. Feeling very "heavy" if that makes sense.

Yep, the same here...very humid

[Cloudwatcher]

Yep, the same here...very humid

lol...ten years ago, on a day that felt like this we would be due a storm at about 6pm.

Are you watching that little patch to the west of Wrexham?

(Slinks off to the NSC)

[Lauren]

Well I am hoping with the hot temperatures and also rain forecast for next week they'll do a little dance and make us some thunderstorms.

[Cheshire Freeze]

lol...ten years ago, on a day that felt like this we would be due a storm at about 6pm.

Are you watching that little patch to the west of Wrexham?

(Slinks off to the NSC)

Yeah looks like a little bit of orographic forcing providing the mechanism.....winds too southerly to push anything that does form in that area over here

[snow_mad_09]

Has that sticky feeling in the North East despite it being cool and damp. Very much similar conditions to the Great Newcastle storm.

[legritter]

gone like a steam bath here .pesky flying ants crawling all over patio .potential still pretty good . still sat on the fence regards any mother nature fireworks , will post if i see anything

[camiscool]

I'm in Orleans France is that a good location?

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yeah looks like a little bit of orographic forcing providing the mechanism.....winds too southerly to push anything that does form in that area over here

Better not be anything thundery gonna happen there...I'm on hols in Somerset till Monday. Would be absolute sods law if anything kicked off today up there.

[Darren Bown]

Feeling very thundery this evening and an ominous black cloud to the SW, seems to be a developing shower.

[Neilsouth]

It's chilly here outside was cloudy for much of the day yet my room is about 40c!

[Supacell]

Looking unlikely for my area. The showers to the west have not really developed much and it just looks like a few light to moderate showers will spread east tonight. Not sure whether the stuff that is threatening to come from France into the SE tomorrow will be thundery either. BBC weather just saying showers and no mention of thunder.

[Nick F]

ECM and NAE suggesting some showers (possibly elevated storms too?) developing over the central English Channel tonight and pushing in across central S England in the early hours and later across the SE of England by the time we reach breakfast time.

This risk moves way in the morning before a further risk of possible storms develops across the SE in the afternoon, as the warm humid airmass destabilises with surface heating. GFS indicates an area from Hants up to London area with highest CAPE and precip.

Warm humid air then gets swept away by a cold front moving down from the NW overnight into Sat morning.

[ardsar]

Gonna be a horrible sticky night - humidity is on the up, currently 71% with a temp of 23.2C. Dew point is 17.6C. Air temp doesn't want to seem to drop like it has the previous nights.......

[IanR]

very warm and humid this afternoon, but cooled to 17c now the drizzle has arrived, yes drizzle! did someone say there was a chance of storms in the north west? ...gotta laugh

[Mapantz]

Chance of showers hitting Dorset and East during the early hours. Low risk of some elevated lightning, more so in the channel.

[IanR]

Feeling very thundery this evening and an ominous black cloud to the SW, seems to be a developing shower.

I am under that dark cloudy stuff, dont get excited its just light patchy rain, did you really expect anything else? sorry about the moan, I will be off to the nsc if any more moaning is to be done about this dire lack of thunder these days