Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Andy Bown]

Anyway back on topic!

The local BBC forecast showed a weak Cold Front moving through tomorrow evening after the hottest day so far for the West Country.

The slack Easterly flow was shown to change to an equally slack WNW flow after the Colf Front and the only rainfall shown was a few

small light showers around the Gloucestershire area.

If this happens it will be the 3rd time this season (late May and 28 June the other 2) where Cold Fronts have been weak in this region

but have brought an end to hot weather!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think I'm going to emigrate as soon as i can from the UK ! Even when I went to Rhodes, SE Europe being one of driest parts of the continent, everyday of the week when I was there, some of the biggest and spectacular Cb's I'd ever seen just forming in an orderly queue in the same place every day at the same time over Turkey ! That made my holiday tbh more than the partying itself by a long shot! Some really good night anvil lightning witnessed too. We all need to get storm chasing over in the States, I know I'm saving right now for it!

[legritter]

latest charts indicating some good action later tomorrow and friday and some bonus thrown in next week if it materialises , there is a possibility of some colder uppers and some warmth getting in on the act if sun comes out . for those of you who enjoy the olympics ENJOY ,those that enjoy freak weather enjoy it if you get it ,i will enjoy both . got some local cider ready ,cheers legritter

[AWD]

Small chance for somethine in Wales tomorrow I suppose:

Cant see nothing but a remote chance for the far south east on Friday though:

GFS versions pretty similiar to Hirlam. Remote chances in Wales tomorrow, and the far south east on Friday, but nothing more than that. Expect a stormless breakdown unfortunetly!

[Weather Wizard]

Anyone fancy a trip over to France on Friday to reminise about what we USED to get?

oh yeah just look at this

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

oh yeah just look at this

Good god, they are so lucky when it comes to storms ! Think I'm starting to veer towards the excitement of getting snow already, this summer just doesn't seem to have it in it to produce decent storms for the UK. I want winters here to be like those in Sweden and norway! This year maybe, as the models show it to be promising!

[camiscool]

Guys im In Paris until 5 on Friday any chance of catching a storm?

[Eskimo]

Guys im In Paris until 5 on Friday any chance of catching a storm?

Remember storms are hit and miss, your chances are as good as anyone's...just not anyone in the UK

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Remember storms are hit and miss, your chances are as good as anyone's...just not anyone in the UK

The weather pattern's here are just pants at the moment, how can you go from 31c to 20c and not get a big bang ! How lame :L

[syed2878]

Netweather local forecast thinks there will be thunderstorms fore brum tomorrow evening meaning today now.

[Supacell]

Latest NMM hi-res charts show two possible thunderstorms developing overnight, one running across the N Midlands and hitting the Humber where the other comes into the South coast from France.

SB CAPE looks meagre though but at night its more MLCAPE that is important, but i cannot get access to any MLCAPE charts to see if there is any.

[mattyk1985]

Showing quite bit and ties in with the precip

[Supacell]

Showing quite bit and ties in with the precip

Well i'm off work tomorrow so may do an overnight chase if it still looks possible this evening

[AWD]

If you look on the Met Office radar map thing on their app, that shows any PPN for the next 48 hours, there is cell tomorrow afternoon that clips Kent, Sussex coast. Looks potent too.

It's normally quite reliable, so defo something to watch for Coast, Harry etc!!

Edited July 26, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Supacell]

If you look on the Met Office radar map thing on their app, that shows any PPN for the next 48 hours, there is cell tomorrow afternoon that clips Kent, Sussex coast. Looks potent too.

It's normally quite reliable, so defo something to watch for Coast, Harry etc!!

Yes and the 0z GFS does bring the storm risk from France into the SE coast a bit more than yesterdays runs and so one to watch. BBC forecasts also mentioning thundery showers in the SE tomorrow, and of more from an IMBY perspective - a chance of thundery showers over the Pennines this evening.

[Coast]

Yes and the 0z GFS does bring the storm risk from France into the SE coast a bit more than yesterdays runs and so one to watch. BBC forecasts also mentioning thundery showers in the SE tomorrow, and of more from an IMBY perspective - a chance of thundery showers over the Pennines this evening.

Yep, saw little Kaye Forster putting the lightning symbol up for tomorrow during this mornings 6.25 local forecast, just need to go and look at the data for tomorrow, be back in a mo......

[Coast]

Come to Daddy you beauty!!!!

Lots of luverly CAPE!!!!

Convergence right through the middle of Sussex and Kent

Low level lapse rates up:

Mid and higher level helicity over the SE:

Still just there at 18Z tomorrow in Sussex and Kent:

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Hi-Res charts have almost exactly the same!!!!!

OMG, I think I've just wet myself..........

Dear storm fairy,

I have been a very good boy this year and I have eaten all my crusts and tidied up my room without my Mummy having to ask. I don't want an X-Box or an I-Pad, I don't want a Kindle version of '50-shades' or tickets to the Olympics.

Storm fairy, could I just have a huge thunderstorm with amazing lightning tomorrow afternoon please and then I won't ask again in 2012?

Thank you,

Coast

[Harry]

Come to Daddy you beauty!!!!

Lots of luverly CAPE!!!!

Convergence right through the middle of Sussex and Kent

Low level lapse rates up:

Mid and higher level helicity over the SE:

Still just there at 18Z tomorrow in Sussex and Kent:

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Hi-Res charts have almost exactly the same!!!!!

OMG, I think I've just wet myself..........

LOOOOOOOOOOL!!

I think I've just done the same...look what you get when you take the charts away...the first script for a weather orientated porn film!!! "Low level lapse rates" and "Convergence line" are by far the most imaginative euphemisms I've read since DH Lawrence's classic...curious to know what Sussex and Kent look like

All very hairline for my liking....again, hope rather than expectation for me, but at least I should be in the right location for anything which may come along!

I'm heading down there tonight so will be without internet over the weekend, unless I can get 3G!

Edited July 26, 2012 by Harry

[Coast]

OK a little more storm porn for Kent and Sussex, or as I like to think of it, '50 shades of grey CB clouds'

Legend:

Cape - Convective Available Potential Energy [J]

Pwat - Precipitable Water [cm]

Shox - Showalter Index (stability)

Plcl - Pressure of the lifting condensation level [hPa]

Tlcl - Temperature at the lifting condensation level [C]

Meaning:

http://www.skystef.be/storm-indices.htm

Dew points way up there:

[nick sussex]

The 06hrs NAE tones down the precip and keeps the heavier amounts right on the East Sussex and Kent coasts.

At this timeframe theres still room for a small adjustment north or south, the main area of thunderstorms looks to be just over the Channel.

[Harry]

The 06hrs NAE tones down the precip and keeps the heavier amounts right on the East Sussex and Kent coasts.

At this timeframe theres still room for a small adjustment north or south, the main area of thunderstorms looks to be just over the Channel.

I'll take that!!!

[nick sussex]

I'll take that!!!

Yes so will I, whilst I don't want to spoil the fun of stormwatchers in here I certainly want to see a dry opening ceremony.

There maybe some showers during the afternoon in London but that small trough shown on the fax chart is shifted eastwards during the evening, so these should hopefully recede in time for the start of the ceremony.

[Coast]

The 06hrs NAE tones down the precip and keeps the heavier amounts right on the East Sussex and Kent coasts.

Yep, looks like I'll get wet watching storms then!!!!

[Sprites]

Imagine if that supercell that hammered the east midlands, were to occur during the opening olympic ceremony! it would make it worth watching....

[Keraunic]

Imagine if that supercell that hammered the east midlands, were to occur during the opening olympic ceremony! it would make it worth watching....

Wouldn't it just! What's the chances for EA tomorrow? I suppose as good as anyone's really. But I'm seriously considering dancing (fully clothed) around a few stones later brandishing myThor's hammer thong (necklace) about.