Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[shedhead]

The 00 GFS looked more promising for a decent spell as it kept the LP far enough SW. I can see no reason for that evolution, it looks to me as if the low will simply drift toward the UK for the middle of next week, effectively maintaining the unsettled (though not as unsettled as previously) pattern.

Has the 06 stuck at T+174hrs for anyone else?

Edited August 1, 2012 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

seems like GFS 06z is stuck at 174h

[Thundery wintry showers]

I certainly agree with "one person's 'horror show' is another's 'Utopia' after all". When I see dull wet conditions showing and described as "dire unsettled dross" I might agree, but when I see the same terms used to describe sunshine and showers with possible thunder (traditionally my favourite type of weather) I don't react very well. The audience for this thread is nothing like as homogeneous in terms of preferred weather types as some posts infer.

This low pressure does look set to produce a much brighter, showery spell of weather than the slow-moving low we had at the start of July- the main slow-moving fronts will be trapped to the north of Scotland while the current satellite images show largely clear skies behind today's fronts, rather than the embedded swirls of cloud we had with the early-July low. There is still a potential complication with a wrap-around occlusion which may bring a 12-hour spell of cloudier conditions for some over the weekend, depending on how much strength it maintains as the low fills, but it doesn't look likely to hang around for long. Thunder could well become quite widespread over much of England and east Wales during the weekend.

Next week is currently unclear, as we have a ridge of high pressure building from the south followed by another southerly tracking low, but the jet looks rather weaker than it has been earlier in the summer so it's not quite the same setup as we were seeing in June. The questions are how long the ridge will last, and how far east the low will get- if it fills to our west we could suck some warm air up from the south as per this morning's operational ECMWF run.

[Snowyowl9]

Most optimism charts shows.

Gem showing next weeks low getting cut off and HP building around it interesting.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1921.gif

The jet does seem to of slowed as with this low currently moving nowhere very fast.

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains stuck at 174h

[Chris K]

GFS remains stuck at 174h

Just tried it and seems to be all there now

[Summer Sun]

Just tried it and seems to be all there now

Thanks

[shedhead]

Most optimism charts shows.

Gem showing next weeks low getting cut off and HP building around it interesting.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1921.gif

The jet does seem to of slowed as with this low currently moving nowhere very fast.

Depends which model you choose to believe tho, the GFS 06 continues to paint a cool, generally unsettled picture into mid month. Looks like possible air frost in sheltered parts of Scotland IF this chart verified!!

Edited August 1, 2012 by shedhead

[95 Degrees]

Just tried it and seems to be all there now

You on Meteociel or wetterzentrale, I still can't get past 174h.

[Chris K]

You on Meteociel or wetterzentrale, I still can't get past 174h.

Using the GFS chart viewer here on Nw has the full run...although oddly enough on another site its still stuck on 174h to....hmm.

[95 Degrees]

You on Meteociel or wetterzentrale, I still can't get past 174h.

Works now.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z is showing a warm up during the second half of next week as a ridge builds northwards from france but at the same time, low pressure pushes in from the southwest, this low shunts the ridge away east but warm air from the continent spreads into southern and eastern england but it looks like any heat and humidity would be brief and would only serve to trigger some storms before things cool down and become briefly more settled. The 6z then pulls down a very cool Northerly from the arctic which is a bit of a shocker for late summer but kind of sums up the overall state of this desperately poor summer but it's only 1 run and we could just as easily have the heatwave that the gfs 00z showed in FI.

PS....Congrats to Bradley Wiggins for winning our 2nd Gold Medal today

Edited August 1, 2012 by Frosty039

[shedhead]

Not a bad looking T+144hrs from UKMO..

However, the ridge on the GFS 12 looks far less impressive, with yet more frontal rain approaching from the Atlantic...

The big question now is can we get that low to cut off to our WSW next week? If so, we might have a way out of this mess,

but as is often the case, far more runs are needed.

Edited August 1, 2012 by shedhead

[Snowy Easterly]

looks like it it really warms up later next week on the GFS, but i bet that low in the atlantic will soon shunt the warm air out of the way, anyway its FI

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120801/12/192/ukmaxtemp.png

till then more of the usual, sun and showers with average or slightly below average temps, boring

[Summer Sun]

10 day temp outlook suggest's temps of around 15c to 20c for the south and east, slighty cooler in the west and scotland

Rainfall

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z is unremarkable in my opinion, the reliable timeframe shows the trough out west moving east by this weekend with a lot of heavy slow moving showers, the low then moves away northeast early next week with a weak rise in pressure but the 850's look disappointing, especially further north. The focus of attention then switches to a deepening depression spreading towards the uk from the southwest, the hope is that the low would help pull some hot continental air at least into the south and east ahead of it but this run is not really interested and the run ends with a ridge out west and the uk in fairly cool air but the track of next week's low is far from sorted.

[PubliusEnigma]

Depends which model you choose to believe tho, the GFS 06 continues to paint a cool, generally unsettled picture into mid month. Looks like possible air frost in sheltered parts of Scotland IF this chart verified!!

Yes Good call there. I think we are on the slippery slope to Autumn especially as the nights are drawing out we are 6 weeks past MidSummer.

The longer the upper trough persist, the colder nights will become. Some of our Acers are already showing Autumn colours. This is the weird

thing about this kind of set up. Whilst the UK slips towards early autumn conditions, Central and Eastern Europes summer heatwave goes on

and on with no sign of any abatement. As we head towards mid month, temps dropping back to Mid Teens more typical of October.

Some chilly nights in the mid single figures in some places in a round two weeks time if this verifies.

[Airedalejoe]

Some chilly nights in the mid single figures in some places in a round two weeks time if this verifies.

We had 4C two nights ago!!

[Bristawl Si]

I think we are on the slippery slope to Autumn

Is this some kind of joke post?

It's 1st August today.

Remember last year?

- i was sitting in temps of 24c at 9.00pm 1st week of Oct at Bristol Harbourside - admittedly that was exceptional, but to write off the rest of August and September at this stage is just plain daft....or just an attempt to wind people up.

[Snowy Easterly]

no surprise of the lack of posts in here, ECM says it all, it may not be a washout but things look mediocre, the brief plume barely touches us next week

Edited August 1, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[damianslaw]

New month - same old script I'm afraid. The models really are making for dissapointing viewing at present, with the trough stuck in limpet over the country. It has now got very tiresome indeed - we've had more or less 4 months solid of this now...

All models show low pressure slowly moving into the N Sea over the next 3-4 days - painfully slow it has to be said, meaning a very showery few days ahead with potential for some thundery downpours. Early next week will see a brief drier spell but preety cool before another low pressure it set to attack from the SW and this one also would be very slow moving with only tentative signs of any proper build of heights behind.

Thank goodness there are the olympics to watch - I'm certainly switching off from looking at the models at present - they are painting such predictable fayre.

This is turning into a very dissapointing summer, and when was the last time the second half of August delivered anything noteworthy heat sunshine wise... mmm can't remember, its not renowned for sustained settled weather especially up here. Watch everything change come September as it has done on so many occasions in recent years!

[phil nw.]

It`s best to be wary wrt to quoting details from the Operational charts on temperatures and percipitation amounts beyond the next 4-5 days ,particularly at the moment.

If we refer to the NOAA forecasters comments they have low confidence in the exact placement of the ridge/trough pattern beyond the near term because of modelling differences in the operational outputs.

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

I think it`s fair to say though, as a general comment, the mean outputs up to day 10 continue to show north west Europe under low heights stretching from Scandinavia south west into the Atlantic.This pattern maintaining a rather cool and showery regime with the best conditions in the south east where some transient ridging is shown at times.

Edited August 1, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Bristawl Si]

It`s best to be wary wrt to quoting details from the Operational charts on temperatures and percipitation amounts beyond the next 4-5 days ,particularly at the moment.

If we refer to the NOAA forecasters comments they have low confidence in the exact placement of the ridge/trough pattern beyond the near term because of modelling differences in the operational outputs.

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

I think it`s fair to say though, as a general comment, the mean outputs up to day 10 continue to show north west Europe under low heights stretching from Scandinavia south west into the Atlantic.This pattern maintaining a rather cool and showery regime with the best conditions in the south east where some transient ridging is shown at times.

It would be interesting to read Stewart's thoughts - i think that last week he was expecting improvements pretty soon.

Edited August 1, 2012 by Bristle boy

[nick sussex]

Theres alot of uncertainty regarding low pressure track at 168hrs from the ECM ensemble maps:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

If you look at some of those members they do hold low pressure further west which could drag up some warmer air from the south. Also its the track of this low even if it verifies to the sw.

It would be nice to see a slow moving low stuck in the Atlantic to the west slowly filling and heading ne, that would help deliver some better weather but given the UK summer so far thats probably being too hopeful!

Edited August 1, 2012 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

No sign of a significant pattern change any time soon with high pressure anomalies to our west/north-west and

weakish trough over or near the UK.

On a more cheerful note,a white christmas is now nailed on.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfs-0-3546.png