Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[Summer Sun]

CFS painting a very swift pattern change as we move through August into early September.

Maybe just maybe August will deliver some well over due heat its years since we had a hot spell in August, the last one I remember was the 2003 heat wave were we got 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Gravesend

[WheresTheSnow]

Maybe just maybe August will deliver some well over due heat its years since we had a hot spell in August, the last one I remember was the 2003

heat wave were we got 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Gravesend

Im sure you've posted a few charts Summer Sun showing high pressurebuilding around the 8th, at what point is it not counted as FI, 5 days away?

[Backtrack]

Im sure you've posted a few charts Summer Sun showing high pressurebuilding around the 8th, at what point is it not counted as FI, 5 days away?

I usually say after day 7 it's classed as FI.

Maybe just maybe August will deliver some well over due heat its years since we had a hot spell in August, the last one I remember was the 2003 heat wave were we got 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Gravesend

I doubt we'll get anything even near that scale, but I do think we'll have a couple of repeats of last week, although this time from a Scandinavian or Euro high, rather than the Azores.

[Backtrack]

This may interest many:

[phil nw.]

Let`s try an stick to the models in here please.

There are plenty of other threads for general weather topics including a Historical Weather thread to talk about past heatwaves and unusual temperatures etc.

Thankyou.

[PubliusEnigma]

GFS showing an unsettled but average/rather warm week for many temperature-wise. Indeed if GFS is anything to go by the south east could see temperatures in the mid 20s by midweek. Signs in FI of the Azores High possibly ridging north-eastwards to give a setup which would be similar to the one we had last week.

Just goes to show what a mockery charts can make of anticipated temps. This afternoon has been no higher than 12.5 to 13.5oC, here in Surrey, which is as cold as I can ever remember in

July.

With a chart like this being the standard for the week to come

I would say the safer bet would be temps 15 to 20oC being the maxima for a few hours during mid afternoon. Disappointly cool, and some 35oF cooler than about 4 days

ago.. That is incredible change !

[Summer Sun]

Continued hints of a rise in pressure around mid August from GFS tonight

The beebs weekly forecast can also be viewed here

[PubliusEnigma]

Maybe just maybe August will deliver some well over due heat its years since we had a hot spell in August, the last one I remember was the 2003 heat wave were we got 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Gravesend

I think early August 2006 was rather hot too ?

[Summer Sun]

I think early August 2006 was rather hot too ?

Quote from the met office

Mean temperatures were slightly above average in most places. Monthly average maximum temperatures were over 5 °C lower in the Midlands area than was recorded in July. Exceptionally above average rainfall across East Anglia, where around double the average rainfall was recorded. Sunshine levels generally close to or below average.

Compared to 2003

Very warm and sunny across all parts of the UK. Rainfall was well below or exceptionally below average across the majority of the UK.

Highest temperature was 38.5 °C at Brogdale near Faversham (Kent) on 10th, breaking the UK temperature record. Greycrook (Scottish Borders) beat the Scottish temperature record, when 32.9 °C was reported on the 9th. Carlton in Cleveland reported 48 mm of rainfall in just 15 minutes on 10th.

[Derp Patrol]

It's still a dire outlook.. what an awful summer so far and it could come close to beating 2007 as the worst. Temperatures here now should be around 24C-25C by day and 14c by night, but we are struggling at about 19-21C.

As a matter of interest, I had to laugh the other day when a Scottish BBC reporter on an online webfeed for the football at Hampden park suggested that the conditions would be tricky as the temperatures were 'warm' as she put it, in the high 50s to low 60s (IE mid to high teens!) I know Scotland doesn't exactly have the best summer climate (well rubbish for warm weather fans to be honest) but I'm sure it can't be so bad that temperatures in the mid teens are described as warm!

Let's hope that the GFS can upgrade for later this week.. there have been signs of the trough moving west but it seems to have transferred east on recent runs.. there's some warm air to be tapped into just a few hundred miles away given the right conditions.

[The PIT]

Quiet an active low pressure towards the end of next week with some windy weather tied up with it. Worth keeping an eye on it too see if it upgrades or downgrades. Could be an interesting start to August.

[William of Walworth]

Cheers for the updates folks, and thanks for the clarification shed -- remember I'm still struggling with some of the details about all this. But I do see some signs of summer-preferrers' improvement, beyond this week, on some parts of the latest runs

The fact that the charts SS has posted up there, look in such disagreement with robthefool's assessment, leaves plenty of scope for an 'all to play for' suituation as we head mid month.

Edited July 29, 2012 by William of Walworth

[OldMetMan]

Quite a day for strong convection - don't recall seeing such widespread lightning plots for a long time, plus some very intense radar echoes.

The models are sticking to their guns with a vigorous LP forming to the W mid-week and then sticking around within the reliable forecasting timeframe. What I find interesting today is that the UKMet have analysed a trough line in the warm sector of this developing LP by Wednesday, which brings the risk of a storm line as the hot, unstable air over France gets involved.

Beyond that, I still think similar situations will arise with hot air getting involved with frontal activity once the main frontal zone for this developing LP has passed. It's also interesting to note the presence of a strong gradient on the S side of this LP which the models have been showing for a couple of days.

Another significant feature I noticed on the last GFS analysis is the presence of 564dm thickness ( the "red" line) just SE of Greenland which I think is pretty remarkable, even at this time of year. Hence the unusually low thickness values over us today. I tend to watch the thickness charts more than the 500mb, especially the "red" line and what sort of latitude it's at, as well as the thermal gradient, as it is a good indicator of temperature ranges and LP development.

The models are still a bit all over the place as far as the longer term is concerned. There have been hints of a return to HP from the GFS as well as the GEM model. Still, thunderstorm lovers should have plenty to watch in the coming days!

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for friday looks very familiar!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

[legritter]

Just looking at charts at 2.15 am Mon morning, as I have just been woken up by amazing deluge of rain but of short duration. Must be some pretty low temps in the atmospheric mix and with some mild air getting drawn in this week, I'm sure todays forecast charts for later this week will change big time as the week goes on. We are certainly in interesting times with no shortage of weather events to keep us weather fans glued to the weather and all its twists and turns. GFS throwing up some interesting charts but time will tell, my best bet are fax charts

Cheers legritter

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a very deep low for the time of year will hit the north west Thursday and Friday could see gusts of 50mph maybe even 60mph in exposed areas

FI remains unsettled untill August 11th before high pressure begins to edge in and the Jet Stream heads north

[kev238]

The models paint a poor picture for this week, although not quite as bad for the south east and east Anglia. For many areas rain or showers on most days which is not good for the key part of summer.

However, no where near as bad as earlier in the summer!

[shedhead]

Still a very disappointing outlook across the entire model suite this morning, with LP set to remain the dominant feature. As for the SE/Olympics, probably not too bad for a few days

after tomoz with not that many showers, but as the chart below shows the weekend looks anything like summery and will be a real pain/disappointment for the early days of the track & field.

Edited July 30, 2012 by shedhead

[MisfitDog3]

Where do people think we're heading into next week? There seems to be some signs of at least two models wanting to drag in a High from the Atlantic for a week or so but not a very warm one from some of the temperature forecasts. Any thoughts?

[Steve C]

Still a very disappointing outlook across the entire model suite this morning, with LP set to remain the dominant feature. As for the SE/Olympics, probably not too bad for a few days

after tomoz with not that many showers, but as the chart below shows the weekend looks anything like summery and will be a real pain/disappointment for the early days of the track & field.

If only the LP would stall a little way to the west. It could make a big difference imho, to the early track and field. No big heatwave, but reasonable temperatures

[shedhead]

If only the LP would stall a little way to the west. It could make a big difference imho, to the early track and field. No big heatwave, but reasonable temperatures

Agreed Steve - we are probably 500 miles away from a completely different senario, but the chances of it happening are very slim imo. Everything is set up perfectly for LP to slowly drift east across the UK through the weekend and into the early part of next week, just as in Winter everything is often set up perfectly for us to miss out on proper cold by a few hundred miles, that's just the way it is in UK I'm afraid!

[danm]

GFS 12z paints a familiar theme - low pressure dominating this week, centred towards the W/NW of the UK with the best of any drier, brighter, slightly warmer weather in the SE. However, even for the SE the GFS shows the trough filling and moving slightly further east by the weekend with the shower risk extending further south too. By early next week though, the GFS has the low moving away towards Scandi with high pressure moving in from the SW and becoming increasingly dominant as the week progresses.

UKMO 12z fairly similar to the GFS up to 144. Low pressure centred to the NW, best of the weather towards the SE, low fills and moves east. Doesn't go out to next week, but the evolution looks fairly similar to the GFS and high pressure is trying to re-exert itself towards the far south by Sunday. Hopefully this is a trend that will see some fine weather returning next week.

Edited July 30, 2012 by danm

[danm]

ECM out to 168 paints a similar picture to the GFS and UKMO. Largely fine and dry for the SE Wednesday-Friday, rain/shhowers further north & west. Unsettled weather looking more likely for the south on Saturday before high pressure moves in from the SW on Monday.

Edited July 30, 2012 by danm

[tinybill]

Well heat is dry regardless of the humidity. It's not as if you step outside on a hot summers day with the sun cracking the flags only to walk back inside soaked.

Continental heat is often dry with low humidity, so I got that a little muddled when I was typing it - my bad.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

looking on here i cant see any dry warm weather for the next 2 weeks!

[Frosty.]

Really disappointing models for sun and heat seekers for the next week or so but signs of high pressure influencing our weather much more eventually during next week according to the gfs 12z although it looks fairly transcient with atlantic low pressure pushing the anticyclone away from the uk towards mid month with a fairly flat looking pattern with lows racing east and an early autumnal look to the gfs at the end of FI but the next week keeps most of the uk locked into unsettled weather and often on the cool side as winds back N'ly to NE'ly at the end of this week before pressure rises from the southwest next week.