Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[johnholmes]

yes the two charts and the link to the NOAA version Cloud 10 shows really sum up the prospects whatever the synoptic GFS 4x daily outputs may suggest.

The overall pattern into early August looks like an upper low centred somwhere just NW of the UK with a fairly unsettled spell as a result. It should not be that cold though as upper winds much of the time should be south of west. Remember though as any individual surface feature tracks from the Atlantic north of Scotland then winds at the surface will be from west to NW for a time. Equally surface ridging especially into the SW will give a day or two of more settled weather the further SW you live with a subsequent rise in temperature.

I suppose one could describe it as fairly typical latish unsettled summer weather?

Edited July 26, 2012 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There is a risk here looking for/or actually seeing the trough move west or SW. It could get stguck in a rut too close or even over the UK as per 2 runs now of the ECM. Its risky IMO because any pattern we have had has been slow moving and persistent.

BFTP

[Cloud 10]

There is a risk here looking for/or actually seeing the trough move west or SW. It could get stguck in a rut too close or even over the UK as per 2 runs now of the ECM. Its risky IMO because any pattern we have had has been slow moving and persistent.

BFTP

Was just thinking the same looking at the ECM 00z and also the gfs 12z from yesterday with both showing some very odd movement

of low pressure systems.

[Bobby]

Westward tracking lows when you have northern blocking isn't that unusual. The low can get cut off and then just ends up spinning around rather than moving anywhere which looks like what is heading our way. Some places will get a lot of rain that's for sure, might be a fairly prolonged spell too.

The Atlantic usually starts to fire up at this time of year and the jet stream (on average) starts tracking south.

If we'd had the pattern this summer in winter the country would be buried in snow.

[legritter]

there was a time when i used to get me old synoptic charts out and see if i could see a pattern emerging ,i personally do not do this anymore .it does make our hobby very interesting with so many possible out comes ,i am still sat on the fence somewhat even with the possible synoptic setup over the next 48 hrs .iv just had a very quick look at radar and satellite for us and europe and i will probably look again about 6/7pm later when its possible that any convection would have thrown a few storms up .as for next week going by current charts i think there is the potential for some areas to see some impressive rain fall totals ,lets hope that its equally shared out .sorry about keeping on about contrails but as i said its aimed at newer posters and learners who might be on this thread .todays contrails are getting longer again and a few rings appearing , as i said look at upper air charts ,read about contrails on NET/WEATHER combine the two and you can learn alot .it does appear that going by all charts this morning there are no big differences although iv only had a very quick look .cheers

[Backtrack]

Westward tracking lows when you have northern blocking isn't that unusual. The low can get cut off and then just ends up spinning around rather than moving anywhere which looks like what is heading our way. Some places will get a lot of rain that's for sure, might be a fairly prolonged spell too.

The Atlantic usually starts to fire up at this time of year and the jet stream (on average) starts tracking south.

If we'd had the pattern this summer in winter the country would be buried in snow.

I hear this daily, but can I just remind you that the UK temperature record was set in August?

[kev238]

Well this week of glorious weather in the south goes a little way towards balancing weeks of rubbish. However, it does look like becoming pretty autumnal next week. A caevat would be that a few days back it looked like the weekend would be a wash out. The output has moderated and could do so again next week.

[Bobby]

I hear this daily, but can I just remind you that the UK temperature record was set in August?

The two facts don't contradict eachother.

[Lewesdon]

Howdy,

I know this probably not the correct forum to post this in, but what chance if any do we have of this reoccurring this August?

http://www.netweathe...ction=gfs;sess=

Sorry, the link was supposed to be to August 6th 2003.

Must be the weather.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Lewesdon

[Summer Sun]

Howdy,

I know this probably not the correct forum to post this in, but what chance if any do we have of this reoccurring this August?

http://www.netweathe...ction=gfs;sess=

Sorry, the link was supposed to be to August 6th 2003.

Must be the weather.

Yes the great heatwave of 2003 the one I can't forget how lovely it would be to get the heat again

[reef]

Any chance we can stick to discussing the models, most of the posts on the last page or so are not.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the great heatwave of 2003 the one I can't forget how lovely it would be to get the heat again

How was that heat lovely in any way? I remember walking out of the house and into the garden, feeling like I'd just walked into a sauna. Having your body's entire water reserve immediately drawn to the surface of your skin isn't a feeling I wish to have repeated again in a hurry.

Any chance we can stick to discussing the models, most of the posts on the last page or so are not.

Just as I replied to Gav I saw this.....sorry!

[Paul]

The latest forecast from Michael Fish:

[Cheese Rice]

If it's any consolation the weather from tomorrow onwards looks better for northern Britain who have been plagued by endless cloud, drizzle and suppressed temperatures (Far NW England and North of Yorkshire).

Although there'll be many fronts bringing cloud and rain there should be drier brighter interludes, especially during showery periods.

The BBC 5 day looks pretty decent for the next five days providing your sheltered from the rain.

[Weather Wizard]

Howdy,

I know this probably not the correct forum to post this in, but what chance if any do we have of this reoccurring this August?

http://www.netweathe...ction=gfs;sess=

Sorry, the link was supposed to be to August 6th 2003.

Must be the weather.

The 2003 european heatwave was a once in 100 year event so very unlikely to happen again in the near future

[Backtrack]

The two facts don't contradict eachother.

Fine then, the ENGLISH temperature record was set in August.

Okay?

[johnholmes]

Any chance we can stick to discussing the models, most of the posts on the last page or so are not.

copied from above-obviously some of you do not read very well!

The models continue to show the unsettled them very much returning next week, well GFS does, we have to wait for Met and ECMWF.

Still a touch uncertain about the Olympic opening ceremony and will it wont it stay dry?

Edited July 26, 2012 by johnholmes

[Cheese Rice]

I hear this daily, but can I just remind you that the UK temperature record was set in August?

You can apply that logic to anything the point still stands, statistically August is when the Atlantic fires up. Look at past records and you will see on average august is less likely to provide hot and sunny weather.

I'm sorry but your point is irrelevant.

Edit: Sorry back on topic.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[peterf]

Any chance we can stick to discussing the models, most of the posts on the last page or so are not.

copied from above-obviously some of you do not read very well!

The models continue to show the unsettled them very much returning next week, well GFS does, we have to wait for Met and ECMWF.

Still a touch uncertain about the Olympic opening ceremony and will it wont it stay dry?

did you get out of the wrong side of bed today?

whats up?

[Cheese Rice]

Gfs has the trough further west as alluded by GP and ECM 32. This is vital to allow height rises to our NE. A concern is the trough could see itself locked into place only slightly west pulling up hot air into Scandinavia, while leaving the UK in an unsettled regime. The latter is still likely, although the former could come into fruition.

Certainly a much better chance of seeing prolonged warmth, a preffered route of a high retrogressing south west instead of relying on the elusive Azores high.

Nevertheless this potentioal pattern change is a good one to two weeks away. It will be interesting to see how it develops.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Weather Wizard]

Don't think there would be a breath of wind in the whole of europe here (where are the isobars!!!)

Edited July 26, 2012 by Weather wizard

[Bobby]

GFS and UKMO 12z looking disturbed through next week

UKMO +144

GFS +204

Edited July 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Cheese Rice]

Overall I would say the GFS isn't where we want to be, the trough locks itself into place across the south west.

[Weather Wizard]

Overall I would say the GFS isn't where we want to be, the trough locks itself into place across the south west.

It is better than the 06z

[phil nw.]

Off topic posts have been deleted.

Please guys if it`s not about current model output use other threads.

The clue is in the the thread title.

Thankyou.