South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - July 30th 2012>

[john pike]

this still looks good

fingers and everything crossed

[camiscool]

im going to switzerland next friday will it be setteled due to the euro high?

[john pike]

tomorrow looks like sunshine and showers

some areas in the very far south east to stay dry under a ridge of high pressure

21-22 degrees

sunshine and some heavy showers

highs around 25 and feeling humid

late fiday night-satirday morning dry and very warm

20 degrees night temperatures

look at them low pressures to our south

looks like a traffic jam

saturday in the south east should be dry and hot 30 degrees maybe a little higher

waiting for updated charts for sunday

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That front needs to stay out West, preferably as far out as possible, the further, the better as there will be an increased risk of a big French import, possibly a whacking great MCS if the ingredients all come together in good form. The potential is definitely there.

[john pike]

ecm for sunday looks nice and stormy and hot

[john pike]

sunday via gfs 18z

midnight

sleep in the garden

6am

still very humid

cape very high

kent clipper

mid-day

hot

low pressure across the south east

cape is awesome

storms in the south east

6pm

still hot

low pressure still very close

cape is still high

keeping fingers crossed

these charts have had sunday as a stormy day for a few days now

lets hope they stay like this

still waiting the fax update

[john pike]

sundays fax is slightly different

it does show a low pressure in france closer to us now

mcs would be nice

monday

back under a ridge of high pressure for us

not as hot as sunday

but still very warm and dry

a bit of something for everyone there tonight

[john pike]

just a quick look at next week to wednesday

looks pleasant as it looks dry and not as humid

[Snowangel-MK]

Weather warning for MK....

I’m getting my hair done at 12 noon what's the betting that the rain forecast for here today will be at…oh let me see...

…about 1pm ?

Rainfall for the next 5 days in Borough of Milton Keynes

Today

0.54mm

happens every time ...

[Steve C]

Morning all.

I was a bit disappointed by the weather show in my area yesterday, but another fine start to today has made me forget it all.

Looking forward to the weekend (well at least from Sunday midday, as I'll be in Preston on Saturday and overnight) as there looks to be at least one interesting type of weather and maybe two?

[Keraunic]

Afternoon each. Lovely day here in Ippy. Warm with a breeze and lots of altocumulus about. Yesterday was a disappointment but never mind; there'll be other stormy days. And we've got all those lovely autumn gales to look forward too as well.

[Kent Snow]

A bright and sunny day although some altostratus has made the sunshine duller this afternoon. Maximum 23C.

[lottiekent]

A bright and sunny day although some altostratus has made the sunshine duller this afternoon. Maximum 23C.

Snap

[john pike]

saturday

midnight

sunday

has shifted slightly east but still has potential

tuesday dont look too bad either

oooh night storms

lets see what the fax chart for sunday shows later

[bluearmy]

beware gfs cape forecasts - often overdone. also, need more than just low LI's and high cape values to create storms. a trigger to allow the clouds to grow 30000 feet+. i suspect that most of the action re tstorms will be across the channel to our se. would be nice to be wrong.

[john pike]

weekend high cape and low lis

30 degrees maybe a little higher

yes we need a trigger but we also need

the above for the potential

friday

getting warmer

southerly wind

showers am clearing pm

28 degrees possible

saturday

looks dry sunny and hot

potential for some showers-storms from early evening

note 564 dam air over the uk

pollution levels could become high due to thicker air

sunday lunchtime

looks dry and hot

sunday 18

and the main thing

this looks good to me for sunday

charts can change but hopefully these will stay ther same

[john pike]

monday

still hot and chance of some heavy showers

tuesday

dry and hot am

pm

looks stormy

wednesday 00

high cape

plenty of precipitation

plenty of unstable air

very warm midnight temperatures

fingers crossed

[john pike]

just to add ecm shows low pressure very close to the south east

with high temperatures

[WheresTheSnow]

If the GFS really does undercook temperatures by a few degrees, any day from Saturday - Tuesday we could be seeing 30c.

[john pike]

a nice little feature showing on wrf nmm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

[Norfolk Sheep]

Possibly only Kent clippers? At present it looks like the threat has retreated to France and the Low Countries (again!) but who knows, we may get lucky. Either that or it'll all be Lincs, Yorks and Newcastle as usual!

[john pike]

hi norfolk

hard to tell who gets what

but i have a feeling home grown storms cannot be

ruled out with this set up

radars at the ready from sat night on

[john pike]

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/read/index.php?pageid=tstorm_read&trid=701

this will cause some headaches for the models in about a weeks time

wheres michael fish

only kidding

[Will Padz]

22c already here.....it's going to be hot hot hot..... Scorchio.....BBQ at work lunch today and paella....

Met office showing midnight temp of 24c for here.....sticky.....fans out tonight.....

Edited August 17, 2012 by Will Padz

[Steve C]

Thanks for update John.

Morning all. Hope you have a good day. Definitely a muggy one here (like everywhere else is bound to be )

Edited August 17, 2012 by Steve C