South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - July 30th 2012>

[Steve C]

Talk about confused.com

Firstly I must say that I haven't seen a television forecast this evening which may clear things up, however the latest met office forecast for Kempston at 3.46pm this afternoon states the following and makes no mention of any hot weather just spells of rain. It does make me wonder if this outlook applies to the whole country and not just the east and western parts is Wales and not Bedfordshire of Northamptonshire.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday most places staying dry, with sunny spells and feeling warm. Friday and Saturday cloudy with periods of rain, perhaps locally heavy, especially in western parts.

Issued at: 1546 on Tue 14 Aug 2012

Well back to check my seaweed and pine cone, I will hopefully provide a forecast very soon

I see what you mean, if the BBC News 24 forecast at 8:30, was anything to go by. Utterly useless forecast for anything after tomorrow, with a mere mention of unsettled. That's apart from the parrot that seems to teach the BBC presenters to always say 'There's much more online!' Grrrr.

If I wanted to 'go online' the BBC site is never my first choice. This one is so much better!

Edited August 14, 2012 by Steve C

[Methuselah]

Don't forget to check for Seagulls and of course consult the trusty weather stone too..

Is it going to snow!

[Summer of 76]

Is it going to snow!

With all those sea gulls something white is sure going to fall from the sky

[Mesoscale]

Just hope we get something tommorow but i feel like Im going to be stuck in a sandwhich between the north and the south in an area with no storms.

[Steve C]

A better forecast on BBC News 24 just now. Actually mentioned potentially hot at the weekend. Can't believe I've still got News 24 on though.

[Methuselah]

With all those sea gulls something white is sure going to fall from the sky

Oh shi**!

[Will Padz]

Weather on met office website said 24c for faversham/Canterbury for Saturday..... Update now says 28c...... Veering towards gfs/ecm model output.....

[lottiekent]

Someone posted ths on the convective thread:

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/206

Looking better for those of us in the SE getting a decent storm at last?

Edit: or maybe not for me given Paul's post below!

Edited August 14, 2012 by lottiekent

[Paul Sherman]

Just posted this in the General Storm/Convective Thread

Agree with Nick F, The parameters are there for a re-run of 28th June 2012 if things fall into place, a lot can still go wrong if for instance an MCS Forms instead of a possible broken line of Severe Thunderstorms along the Cold Front. With South East winds and 40kts of Deep Layer Shear and with temps/dews spreads of 75/68 there could once again be some very large hail along with a few Tornadoes tomorrow mainly from Central Southern England up into the Midlands and East Anglia and dare i say it Lincolnshire again!

Have the kids so cannot chase but will be on the look out locally in SE Essex although i feel this will NOT Benefit like always in these set-ups, good luck to all venturing out

Paul S

[lottiekent]

Just posted this in the General Storm/Convective Thread

Agree with Nick F, The parameters are there for a re-run of 28th June 2012 if things fall into place, a lot can still go wrong if for instance an MCS Forms instead of a possible broken line of Severe Thunderstorms along the Cold Front. With South East winds and 40kts of Deep Layer Shear and with temps/dews spreads of 75/68 there could once again be some very large hail along with a few Tornadoes tomorrow mainly from Central Southern England up into the Midlands and East Anglia and dare i say it Lincolnshire again!

Have the kids so cannot chase but will be on the look out locally in SE Essex although i feel this will NOT Benefit like always in these set-ups, good luck to all venturing out

Paul S

Thank you Paul, just a shame it looks like my little corner may still be out of luck then. We used to get such good storms here too

[john pike]

look at these for the weekend

[WheresTheSnow]

18z shows slight shift West, GFS showing 31C sunday now!!! John, I dont understand those charts, do the darker bits mean you are more likely to see a storm? Also, Im not too comfortable with the idea of Tornadoes tommorow, dont want the house blowing away!?

Edited August 14, 2012 by WheresTheSnow

[john pike]

this fax chart for sunday looks good for some fun and games on sunday

weather front over the south east mixed in with hot unstable air

if these stay like this this will give some really impressive storms on sunday and sunday night

[john pike]

18z shows slight shift West, GFS showing 31C sunday now!!! John, I dont understand those charts, do the darker bits mean you are more likely to see a storm? Also, Im not too comfortable with the idea of Tornadoes tommorow, dont want the house blowing away!?

sorry wheres the snow

should say pink is very high-dk red still high

see right hand side of chart to see levels

as for tornados tomorrow

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/206

the risk is there but very hard to predict

Edited August 14, 2012 by john pike

[Upgrade]

Crikey , 31 degrees and high levels of humidity - surely the storms would be tropical style extraordinary, if they came off.

personally i dont believe there will be that much heat, or that much moisture - it's so rare in the UK to get 31 or 32 degrees, cloud and widespread storms ...isnt it?

[john pike]

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

that looks awesome

[john pike]

look at the huge temperature drop tomorrow

8 degree drop and in a very short time

also very wet

the 19th looks very hot

31-32 degrees

temperatures back down to normal on the 23rd

also if correct these look very wet from then as well

[Biggin]

look at the huge temperature drop tomorrow

8 degree drop and in a very short time

also very wet

the 19th looks very hot

31-32 degrees

temperatures back down to normal on the 23rd

also if correct these look very wet from then as well

Its warm tonight, I got hot feet n cant sleep

[Sprites]

Its warm tonight, I got hot feet n cant sleep

yes and no storms to watch, apart from n.w. france.

Try sleeping with your feet out of the window.

[VillagePlank]

Plenty of fun to look out for lunchtime, today,

A ridge of warm moist air covers a band from the SE England to North Wales.

This potential destabilises giving rise to the normal parameters,

With most likely areas for t/storms,

Requires insolation to really kick off so it's on the look out for blue skies this morning.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Biggin]

Beautiful red sky this morning here atm. Get that sun up and get heating

I take it that area in the SE is good news for us Boar ??

Edited August 15, 2012 by Biggin

[Steve C]

Requires insolation to really kick off so it's on the look out for blue skies this morning.

We have them here at the moment.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Steve C

[Steve C]

Here are ML CAPE / LI charts from the midnight run of the Hi Res model. They are from 11:00 to 16:00 today and might give an indication of likely timing and location of any activity today.

Must get ready for an early work start. I've a feeling I'll be getting distracted later...

[VillagePlank]

Beautiful red sky this morning here atm. Get that sun up and get heating I take it that area in the SE is good news for us Boar ??

Yes, that's the speed at which air is rising (from various altitudes) so the lower the negative number the more buoyant the atmosphere. I think surface heating will be the key to the difference between wonderful thunderstorms, and heavy showers. Almost certainly going to get wet today.

And, it seems, we are already off,

Edited August 15, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[VillagePlank]

I can understand why it's all started so early. Getting the stats of last nights midnight ascent - the interesting ones (at night) are in bold. Any SWEAT index above 150 is good for storms (300+ and Supercells possible) A K-Index of 29.8 gives a 50/50 probability of a shower being a thunderstorm. You really need the Vertical totals to exceed 26, but we are close, which means a Cross totals comes into it's own with a value of 21.7 meaning scattered thunderstorms with (very) few moderate storms.

Station number: 3882

Observation time: 120815/0000

Station latitude: 50.90

Station longitude: 0.32

Station elevation: 52.0

Showalter index: 1.81

Lifted index: 1.91

LIFT computed using virtual temperature: 1.55

SWEAT index: 157.81

K index: 29.80

Cross totals index: 21.70

Vertical totals index: 24.10

Totals totals index: 45.80

Convective Available Potential Energy: 0.00

CAPE using virtual temperature: 0.00

Convective Inhibition: 0.00

CINS using virtual temperature: 0.00

Bulk Richardson Number: 0.00

Bulk Richardson Number using CAPV: 0.00

Temp [K] of the Lifted Condensation Level: 286.04

Pres [hPa] of the Lifted Condensation Level: 906.46

Mean mixed layer potential temperature: 294.20

Mean mixed layer mixing ratio: 10.43

1000 hPa to 500 hPa thickness: 5655.00

Precipitable water [mm] for entire sounding: 30.61

Shaping up lovely! And convection hasn't even kicked off, yet. Certainly, a keep your eyes on the midday Herstmonceaux ascent day today if you live in the SE!

Edited August 15, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm