Stormy Wednesday 15th August 2012

[Staffordshire]

After spending two weeks in baking sun i have kind of missed the rain (cant belive i said that), and today it looks like i could get a fair share! For those on the south coast im not sure those sferics will make it over thr channel...

[Coast]

TORRO update with warning of tornadoes!!!!

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2012/006

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0800GMT on Wednesday 15th August 2012

Valid from/until: 0800 - 2000GMT on Wednesday 15th August 2012, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

N & E Wales Midlands E Anglia SE and Cent S England N England SE Scotland

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 30mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

An unseasonably deep low pressure system in the south-west approaches will drift north across western Eire today. To the east of this, a powerful upper trough and low-level moisture plume will cross the watch area. A broad area of heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms has already spread into SW England and SW Wales, and will continue north and east through the rest of day.

A broad expanse of attendant mid-level cloud may limit heating ahead of the low-level frontal zone but a combination of modest heating along with mid-level cooling should allow 400-800 J/Kg of CAPE to develop in places. This should help foster the development of thunderstorms along or ahead of the surface frontal zone. With the low-level convergence zone along the front becoming increasingly negatively tilted, low-level convergence will increase too.

Convection-allowing models simulate the development of a line of thunderstorms, and thus strong wind gusts are the prime threat. However, marked low-level wind shear, and plenty of low-level vorticity ahead of the line suggest that one or two tornadoes are possible too, with the stronger cells. Supercell development seems rather unlikely, given the strong linear forcing along with the backed upper flow - however, updraught rotation is possible.

Please note that this has been issued early due to commitments which means that monitoring of the developing situation may not be possible today.

[jessandjon]

lok like it will miss plymouth by a long way, all that exitment for nothing

[gottolovethisweather]

BIG RAINDROPS STARTING.

[Luke]

Just had a heavy shower here that only showed as blue/greens on the radar. But looking at the main band it is practically all red! Some very heavy rain on the way.

[Staffordshire]

Has met monkey updated there waening yet like they said they will?

Thanks in advance

[philglossop]

Sadly for us its turned into a rain wind event, however it is rare for rain and wind of this like in August. Thinking back -rain wise its almost like the day ex Hurricane Charley hit us back in 1986.

[weatherobsuk]

Looking at the upper edge of the front starting to move in here at the moment, high-based tops with embedded TCUs evident and quite eery alongside the 22mph winds rustling against the tree's. Hopefully the back-edge will move through before sunset and i'll be able to get a montage of the front's progression.

[jessandjon]

i cant remember the last time ii heard a rumble good luck to you all though!!

[Paul]

Latest front page weather headline:

Heavy Thundery Rain Sweeping Northeast

[Coast]

Sadly for us its turned into a rain wind event, however it is rare for rain and wind of this like in August.

Phil. it's just turned 10 am, there is a whole day to go yet!!!!!!

[Eskimo]

I have never seen such heavy rain within a frontal band...ever.

[A.J]

Looking at the upper edge of the front starting to move in here at the moment, high-based tops with embedded TCUs evident and quite eery alongside the 22mph winds rustling against the tree's. Hopefully the back-edge will move through before sunset and i'll be able to get a montage of the front's progression.

similar here....embedded Tcu in amongst a lot of mid-level convection, and quite a blustery ESE wind...looking rather ominous.....

[A.J]

similar here....embedded Tcu in amongst a lot of mid-level convection, and quite a blustery ESE wind...looking rather ominous.....

in fact, just to add....just looked at the radar for the first time today (i've just got up...lol) and very interesting...looks like some elevated cells are breaking out ahead of the main band..cells quite close to my location (20 miles or so to my east & south)....a repeat of june 28th??

another edit...lol.....now absolutely belting down with rain from an elevated cell & yes, a rumble of high based thunder...woohoo!!

Edited August 15, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Paul]

Current state of play - rain radar + visible satellite overlay

Live radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[Staffordshire]

in fact, just to add....just looked at the radar for the first time today (i've just got up...lol) and very interesting...looks like some elevated cells are breaking out ahead of the main band..cells quite close to my location (20 miles or so to my east & south)....a repeat of june 28th??

it looks to be asif they arent gaining much intensity?

[Mapantz]

Not a lot going on here, a bit of moderate rain, but to me it looks like it will clear through by lunchtime, and not the 3pm that the BBC seem to put it at.

[Jordan Naylor]

What's the outlook for north-west england? Preston area? Been extremely quiet this year (apart from the large storm in the Irish sea and over Southport & Blackpool a couple of days ago) Im fancying a decent day of exitement!

[picog]

Nothing here yet, but must be very close, judging by the radar.

[A.J]

it looks to be asif they arent gaining much intensity?

just ran a radar loop for the past 20 minutes and my cell has erupted from nothing in that time....Cells are running south to north, and another interesting clump of elevated cells are moving into Birmingham as I type, heading straight for us....The main band of persistant rain is still 70-100 miles to our south,so these current developments are very encouraging not just to us but especially so for areas north and into the north of England

[gottolovethisweather]

I love the tension in here, 177 folk online, all poised and ready for action or non action.

Skies are brightening up in between the first few rain patches down in Newbury and the air is certainly mixing well. There are some good cool downdraughts out there but sadly no inland sferics when I last looked, however all the ingredients are there I would imagine.

Anybody know where the Frontal boundaries are at the moment?

Edited August 15, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Staffordshire]

just ran a radar loop for the past 20 minutes and my cell has erupted from nothing in that time....Cells are running south to north, and another interesting clump of elevated cells are moving into Birmingham as I type, heading straight for us....The main band of persistant rain is still 70-100 miles to our south,so these current developments are very encouraging not just to us but especially so for areas north and into the north of England

oh yes well i dont have netweather radar so im on 15 min update but on the last one the cells heading for brum have intensfied, there seems to be two focal points one heading for you and one heading for me , but yeah lively day ahead!

[NUT]

Sky is blue but hazy. Sign of things to come probably (Wind is already strong too) Not sure how intense the rain will be when it gets up to the lowlands though

[Mapantz]

There's plenty of sferics to my south in the channel, that COULD make it here. Everything East of me is just patchy and sporadic.

[Coast]

There's an awful lot of weather up there!!

Interactive here:

http://www.knmi.nl/satrep/latest.htm