Stormy Wednesday 15th August 2012

[AWD]

Starting to get breezy around Western facing coasts now.

[Darren Bown]

Wind has picked up significantly over the

Last hour, had to close the windows! Still feels

Very muggy though.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Darren Bown

[Gord]

After a few sharp showers, the steady rain is setting in for the long haul now. However, those sharp showers that developed ahead of the rain could be a good sign for those further east and north as things continue to develop.

Edited August 15, 2012 by Gord

[Mapantz]

No wind here at all. Virtually calm .. and the rain has stopped now.

[knocker]

Broken sky with some Ac and small Cu. Temp 16.6c with a southerly wind 17mph gusting 33.

[SP1986]

No chance of anything other than strong winds and rain here today. Warm at first then feeling cooler later... But thunderstorms and any convective event will not happen here

[I Cumbria Marra I]

This is from Ian Fergusson

Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but by far the primary likelihood of these forming later is further E & NE in England

Now thats a surprise.....not

[Harry]

Very very stagnant and humid at the moment! Leaden skies, the lot!

No rain had yet though.

Edit that...just started!

Edited August 15, 2012 by Harry

[SP1986]

Just had a shower and it has cooled down markedly... From 22C to 16C - I wonder how cool it will get when the cold front crosses ?

[AWD]

A lot of rain in this band!

[Methuselah]

Rain-band is a few miles south of here now, but clearly visible. Only a few spots so-far and 23C...

[Eye to the sky]

Heavy bursts of rain here now,although pretty intermittent.Very gusty wind as well.Still feels very muggy,and the sky has turned yellowy in colour.

[SimonP]

They were obviously on the lash last night!!! Let me dig out the salient parts of the forecast here:

haha, yeah! Also caught my eye was the "AMENDED" text at the top of the forecast, never seen that before... Wonder if they already had a forecast drafted out... Interesting.

[Mapantz]

That small mass coming in to Dorset again has certainly pepped up ..

[lfcdude]

Thunderrrrr lightningggg update Few rumbles of thunder and saw 3 fork lightning strikes... Was a nice surprise

Edited August 15, 2012 by lfcdude

[Mapantz]

My lightning detector has just gone off for the first time today. 12 - 24 miles it was registered at.

[Paul]

Current progress - it's starting to run into the areas with the highest storm potential...

[weatherobsuk]

light rain beginning here now, time to kick the feet back and watch proceedings.

[Nick F]

Just to give an idea on the position of the fronts atm:

Still a chance of more broken lines of storms developing further south along the cold front coming up from the Channel/France away from the main mass of frontal rainfall across Wales and SW England. Some showery rain falling from mid-level cloud to get through before then as large scale ascent of warm moist plume takes place, with embedded mid-level convection bringing the odd rumble of high-level thunder in places.

[Coast]

Rain-band is a few miles south of here now, but clearly visible. Only a few spots so-far and 23C...

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

my heated paddling pool is going to cause a lightening bolt one day xD

Warm and rather rainy here not much else atm.

Good luck with the storms guys!

[Coast]

Update from SkyWarn: (my bolds)

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #049

ISSUED 0815UTC WEDNESDAY 15TH AUGUST 2012 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTHERN ENGLAND MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA NORTHEAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 15TH AUGUST 2012

DESTABILISATION OF A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL PLUME WITH FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTS...MODERATE HAIL...FUNNELS/TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING OVERTOPPED BY THE NOSE OF A STRONG JET WILL ENCOURAGE DESTABILISATION OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST PLUME OF CONTINENTAL AIR. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VEERING WINDS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DLS WILL PROVIDE A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION, WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD AND WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WARNING AREAS. INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 700-1000J/KG CAPE WILL GENERATE STRONG UPDRAFTS, MAKING MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE RISKS. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE SURFACE FRONT MAY DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO A LEWP OR BROKEN BOWING SEGMENTS, WITH ATTENDANT WIND AND TORNADO RISK. EASTERN AREAS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE APPEAR MOST AT RISK, WHILE WESTERN ENGLAND MAY SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE FRONT. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

[lfcdude]

i think you all have a good chance as iv had thunder and lightning in devizes wiltshire so it should build as goes north east?

[Biggin]

"SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTS...MODERATE HAIL...FUNNELS/TORNADOES"

[SP1986]

I thnk there is a chance however it has probably already got too cool in this area for the development of such events. It is actually a quite Autumnal type day. Very dull and the sky appears to be stratified even with the approaching cold front?