Stormy Wednesday 15th August 2012

[Chris W]

It looks very interesting already I must say. Also don't want to bash the Met Office - these things are difficult to predict - but I'm surprised that there is no amber warning for any area yet especially as they've been forecasting intense rain along these fronts for a couple of days.

Looks like Devon is about to get mullered.

[philglossop]

Phil. it's just turned 10 am, there is a whole day to go yet!!!!!!

True Coast, but I've been in the no storms club since we used to post memos rather send emails..... well 7 years since the last big one!

[joanna1971]

Been windy all morning here, but wind suddenly dropped ,very eerily... As main rain approaches, i feel something in my water for something big today

[A.J]

It looks very interesting already I must say. Also don't want to bash the Met Office - these things are difficult to predict - but I'm surprised that there is no amber warning for any area yet especially as they've been forecasting intense rain along these fronts for a couple of days.

Looks like Devon is about to get mullered.

They start early..Are the pubs open now then?...lol

[jessandjon]

the rain has now cleared

[matt_in_dudley]

Heavy intermittant rain has begun, sky looks grey but bright currently. Wind has picked up a bit too.

[Lynxus]

Hmmm..

I think this is just going to be breezy and drizzle here at this rate.

Looks like the convection has stopped around here and its loosing its intensity.

I hope things pick up over the next few hours.

[SimonP]

ESTOFEX forecast is out - level 1: http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2012081606_201208150941_2_stormforecast.xml

[Carl46Wrexham]

Going by that estofex map, it looks like any interesting weather will be confined to more eastern areas. For the rest of us, looks like a warm,humid version of a very wet and windy Autumnal day. Doesn't push my buttons I'm afraid.

[Aaron]

The Met Office have used the 'thunder storm' symbol for the forecast.. they've used it before and nothing happened though.

[Liam Ellis]

Torrential Rain in Cardiff - Temp: 18C - I'll keep you all updated

[Mapantz]

37mm/h rain rate here.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX forecast is out - level 1: http://www.estofex.o...ormforecast.xml

They were obviously on the lash last night!!! Let me dig out the salient parts of the forecast here:

AMENDED

A level 1 was issued across Centrl, Ern and SErn England, and across the Wrn Benelux countries and N-central France for severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

At 0900 UTC, an unseasonably intense mid-/upper-level trough, extending from a closed low located SW of Ireland towards Brittany moves northeastward. An intense 975 hPa low should move northward slightly west of the western Irish coast during the forecast period. The warm sector, visible as a thermal ridge extending from Wales to central France moves quickly northeastward reaching a line from the northern Netherlands to the central Alps by 18 UTC.

DISCUSSION

England, Benelux, France, Germany, Spain...

A narrow zone of latent instability, coinciding with low-level convergence and a significant wind shift, lags behind the NEward moving thermal ridge. This zone is expected to be the focus of most convective activity. Within the zone, CAPE should be limited to a few 100 J/kg over the British Isles, and up to around 1000 J/kg over the continent. Deep-layer (0-6 km bulk) shear within the most unstable zone is expected to be in the 20-25 m/s range across Britain, and around 15 m/s over the continent. Low-level (0-1 km bulk) shear around 15 m/s is forecast across Britain and around 10 m/s over western parts of the continent, and about 200-300 m/s of SRH just to the east.

It appears likely that storms will indeed form along the surface convergence zone, and that these may acquire some rotation given the rather strongly helical inflow, enhancing storm updraught speed. They will, however, cluster rather quickly.

Where low-level shear is highest, across the British Isles and NW France, western Benelux, a threat for one or two short-lived tornadoes is present. The main risk however, will be wind gusts, and locally, very heavy rainfall. Some large hail may also occur, especially with the earlier storms that are not yet clustered, as they typically posses the strongest updraughts.

[Staffordshire]

The way the radar is shaping its looking like nothing more than patchy rain for a few hours...

[Snowynorth]

Going by that estofex map, it looks like any interesting weather will be confined to more eastern areas. For the rest of us, looks like a warm,humid version of a very wet and windy Autumnal day. Doesn't push my buttons I'm afraid.

I wouldn't be to downhearted, torro have the north west well and truly in their warning zone and i think estofex have under done things. I would of thought the precip we will receive would warrant a level 1 never mind the other ingredients!!!!

[A.J]

The way the radar is shaping its looking like nothing more than patchy rain for a few hours...

Your missing the bigger picture bud....Atmospheric parameters are falling into place for rapid development...watch this space over the next few hours

[Lynxus]

Your missing the bigger picture bud....Atmospheric parameters are falling into place for rapid development...watch this space over the next few hours

New convection and heavy PPN appearing south of the front inthe channel at the moment.

[DeepSnow]

So far nothing unusual about this, just steady moderate rain and only a light wind, which is surpising as I expected it to be quite windy here today.. I think I must of missed all the heavy rain! Look like some showers forming behind the front now?

Edited August 15, 2012 by DeepSnow

[Staffordshire]

Your missing the bigger picture bud....Atmospheric parameters are falling into place for rapid development...watch this space over the next few hours

oh i see, havent been able to look at this situation in detail i got back late yesterday and im unpacking so yeah aha but cheers!

[AWD]

It's gone very very dark here now! Having to put the lights on. You would never think this was August.

Heavy and persistent rain here. Nothing thundery and to be honest, I don't think there will be here. Winds haven't arrived here yet however.

[Methuselah]

The way the radar is shaping its looking like nothing more than patchy rain for a few hours...

Aye, but that 'patchy rain' is very unstable: the atmosphere is on the boil...

[paul m]

Wind is picking up here. I knew sticking an 8ft trampoline in the garden was a bad idea!!!!!!

[weatherobsuk]

No doubt now that the front edge of the frontal-band has arrived, skies gradually been losing it's blue color lost to upper clouds turning everything above a dark-milky complexion. Looking south there is evident signs of rain approaching as seen on the Cat&Fiddle webcam nr Buxton.

[AWD]

This is from Ian Fergusson

Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but by far the primary likelihood of these forming later is further E & NE in England

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Feeling very tropical here, very caribbean esque. temp is 24c, loads of altocumulus and altostratus in the skies advecting NNW, things look like they could go bang this afternoon.