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Winter 2012 / 2013

Summer Sun

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

I'm back ready for the winter, hopefully snowy weather from November right through to February, not too much to ask for tease.gif

Depends on where you live I guess lol. good.gif

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Depends on where you live I guess lol. good.gif

Living in Oxford, won't help my cause! Though saying that we do usually get some decent snowfall in recent years, which can be surprising considering we are one of the most central points.

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snowstorm445 Apprentice

snowstorm445

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
Posted

The Met Office is still predicting a higher probability for a cooler than average winter, particularly across Southern England and Western Ireland. This is consistent from last month, which is interesting, although take it with a pinch of salt:

extreme_20120901_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Its interesting to see all of the potential outcomes for winter with different charts. Just proves how uncertain long-range forecasting is. :D

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

The Met Office is still predicting a higher probability for a cooler than average winter, particularly across Southern England and Western Ireland. This is consistent from last month, which is interesting, although take it with a pinch of salt:

extreme_20120901_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Its interesting to see all of the potential outcomes for winter with different charts. Just proves how uncertain long-range forecasting is. biggrin.png

these are Autumn charts

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

well... remember winter 2009/2010? the met office consistently forecast an average/mild winter, as did the CFS charts. right up to the point where we had one of the snowiest winters in recent history!

lets hope history will repeat itself.......cold.gif

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

well... remember winter 2009/2010? the met office consistently forecast an average/mild winter, as did the CFS charts. right up to the point where we had one of the snowiest winters in recent history!

lets hope history will repeat itself.......cold.gif

The long range ECMWF outlook for the DJF winter of 2009/10 showed a consistently high level of

high latitude blocking (-AO) from as early as mid Summer, and each monthly forcast thereafter

showed the same.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

well... remember winter 2009/2010? the met office consistently forecast an average/mild winter, as did the CFS charts. right up to the point where we had one of the snowiest winters in recent history!

lets hope history will repeat itself.......cold.gif

Not sure that's strictly accurate, this is the CFS forecast for the three winter months in October 2009

dectemp.png

jantemp.png

febtemp.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Yes the CFS has been very good over the past few winters.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Gavin P Explorer

Gavin P

Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Posted

Yes, I remember the CFS 700mbr anomaly charts really started getting the signal for 09/10 around September 09 and certainly by October the signal was strong.

Wasn't there a little wobble during the very mild and wet November though?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

What is the GFS hinting at this year then?

I think you mean CFS...Cold, I think?

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

As highlighted above it would be foolish to completely dismiss anything the CFS output is showing, it is after all a scientific numerical weather model and not intended as a joke :p

Obviously a sizeable dose of salt needs to be swallowed whilst viewing the charts, but for an overall vague idea on what could potentially lie ahead over the coming months the CFS is unique in this respect. Just don't go making a winter forecast based on the CFS charts.... :D

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted (edited)

Not sure that's strictly accurate, this is the CFS forecast for the three winter months in October 2009

dectemp.png

jantemp.png

febtemp.png

i stand corrected- i was thinking of the global long range probability maps, found here- http://www.metoffice.../glob-seas-prob which showed mild back then but are, at the moment, showing colder probability.

just to add, the charts go back to 2009 and if you have a look you will see what i mean (worth noting that the colours do not relate to temps but to probability. i.e. orange is more likely, blue is less likely.)

Edited by bobbydog
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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Looking forward to the season again, can't wait to pop in for the model reads and a nice hot cuppa everyday, get excited over armageddon charts, report the daily weather for my region/locality and see the first flakes of snow and frost cover. Let the crazy season begin asap w00t.gif

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Wasn't sure whether this was to be taken seriously. Personally, all of the above is what I would not like to see. For me, all of the above is what makes this forum an unpleasant place to be. Honestly.

The way members (a lot of them adults) conduct themselves on here in general, paticularly during winter, is both amusing and slightly disturbing. Being a weather enthusiast since I was young kid, I do find it amazing how little I can relate with other (apparent) enthusiasts on here.

Winter generally brings those feelings a little more to the surface, I guess.

chill out mate! (see what i did therebiggrin.png )

its called enthusiasm... it brings out the kid in us all....clap.gif

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snowstorm445 Apprentice

snowstorm445

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
Posted

these are Autumn charts

Apologies, here you go:

extreme_20120901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

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snowstorm445 Apprentice

snowstorm445

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
Posted (edited)

So the probability charts are looking good!

Yep. They've remained fairly consistent as well. good.gif

The Jamstec IOD model should be coming out next week and their forecasts often turn out to be quite accurate, so it'll be interesting to see their take on the winter months.

Edited by snowstorm445
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

What are those UK CFS charts showing for now.

In terms of 2009 i think that was a special case in the lead up, we saw the most negative AO on record in June, July and October and then saw the pattern repeat in winter (most negative December AO on record, most negative Feb on record - most -AO month on record overall).

Coming into this winter we see a probable -PDO (correlated with -AO), a neutral QBO trending positive (the later it peaks the better but broadly this is a -AO signal) and a neutral to weak El Nino signal.

All in all, i am pretty positive.

As an aside 1984 was the closest match for MEI and QBO analogues and Jan 1985 was epic.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Best thing about this winter is going to be the fact I have 2 days off college each week.

More time to enjoy the snow.

One person I would LOVE to see back is MrCrazySnowFan. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE someone get that guy back!

And oh yeah. I like snow. rofl.gif

Edited by Backtrack
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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Giving current weather model projections, I'm fairly confident, let's hope as we draw closer to the winter months, things continue and the snow starts to fall!

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted (edited)

One person I would LOVE to see back is MrCrazySnowFan. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE someone get that guy back!

place yourself in the recovery position. the ambulance is on its way.....

Edited by bobbydog
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Apologies, here you go:

extreme_20120901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

They look impressive. However, I'm not going to read too much into them. Good to see all the same though!

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