Winter 2012 / 2013

[Mark Neal.]

I just heard this story on the radio. Wonder if the new computer runs on a program called.. Netweather Sudden Stratospheric Warming Monitoring Winter 2012/13 Thread..?

Yes i did hear it on the BBC Radio 1 news this morning. Be interesting to see if the media start to pan more blame if met office don't predict a cold spell or something goes wrong.. Daily Express are waiting......

[Summer Sun]

Are the Cfs still pointing to a cold winter

No CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall

Rainfall is below average for parts of Scotland and average else where

CFS V2 is going for a warm winter for much of Europe including the parts of the UK

CFS V2 is also going for a wetter than average winter

So in summary

CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall both temperature and rainfall wise the exception been Scotland which is below average for rainfall

CFS V2 is going for a mild and slightly wetter than average winter from the midlands south and average temperatures, the north has average temperatures and slightly wetter than average in places

[Met4Cast]

I'm not sure NetWeather have predicted freezing conditions for December, Irish Daily Star..

http://thestar.ie/star/snow-on-the-way-but-not-till-christmas/

[ITSY]

Even though CFS forecast is fairly uninspiring today it bodes well IMO. The first outlook hints at what is more widely predicted - high latitude blocking which makes large parts of Europe colder than average. (as illustrated through the orange of greenland and the blues over central Europe). Only difference is that the high is, on this run, closer to the UK - therefore limiting it's ability go funnel real cold. Still, for me, at this stage, it's impressive to see the new MO model, GFS, CFS and the NAO forecasts all picking up on a similar theme. Only issue is how early it is..perhaps this would be better in late October or early November?!

[Liam J]

I'm not sure NetWeather have predicted freezing conditions for December, Irish Daily Star..

http://thestar.ie/st...till-christmas/

Hmmmm... Is there any truth in this, or perhaps Stewarts Netweather winter forecast been leaked??

White Christmas woohoo

Edited September 14, 2012 by Liam J

[chionomaniac]

Hmmmm... Is there any truth in this, or perhaps Stewarts Netweather winter forecast been exposed??

White Christmas woohoo

There are certain parts of the jigsaw that will slowly become apparent over the coming weeks. So far we may be looking at a (probable) weak El Nino combined with a descending Easterly QBO. That is certainly not unfavourable for winter stratospheric disturbances.....

[Liam J]

There are certain parts of the jigsaw that will slowly become apparent over the coming weeks. So far we may be looking at a (probable) weak El Nino combined with a descending Easterly QBO. That is certainly not unfavourable for winter stratospheric disturbances.....

Any intitial thoughts on the coming winter then Chio, could we be looking at SSW being a factor this year?

Local councils up here are stocking up on grit for the coming winter plus 30,000 tonnes already piled up. Also on the radio this morning the county council are asking members of the local community to become 'snow champions' in order to help keep communities roads and footpaths free from ice & snow, correct clothing and equipment will be supplied - Do they know something we don't??

Edited September 14, 2012 by Liam J

[UV-RAY]

Latest Met Office long range charts suggest a 60% chance of below average temps this winter and a 20% chance of above normal

Rainfall looks fairly average nation wide, only Northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland are shown to be below normal (40% chance)

Chances of near normal sea level pressure is 40% below normal is 20%

The CFS charts have been all over the place and I'm not just saying that because I prefer the cold ( honestly ). The MetO probability charts have been consistent for the last two months showing below average temps, I like consistency. Edited September 14, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[chionomaniac]

Any intitial thoughts on the coming winter then Chio, could we be looking at SSW being a factor this year?

Local councils up here are stocking up on grit for the coming winter plus 30,000 tonnes already piled up. Also on the radio this morning the county council are asking members of the local community to become 'snow champions' in order to help keep communities roads and footpaths free from ice & snow, correct clothing and equipment will be supplied - Do they know something we don't??

I think that local councils are being prudent, Liam. I think we need to leave it at least another six weeks before looking at the upcoming winter in too much detail. It's always good to see some favourable factors though at this stage.

[Met4Cast]

The CFS charts have been all over the place and I'm just saying that because I prefer the cold ( honestly ). The MetO probability charts have been consistent for the last two months showing below average temps, I like consistency.

Whilst consistency is universally considered good, without any real verification stats from the model they could be consistently wrong, the CFS like you said has been all over the place lately so probably best to take that with a large dollop of salt. If winter does indeed turn out to be below average then it'll be a great victory for the MO model.

[Summer Sun]

A few more longer range models

Rainfall looks fairly close to average

Temperature

Looks mostly average except Scotland and Northern Ireland which is below normal at this stage

Norwegian Met Office Predicted temperature deviations from the period of October 2012 to December 2012

Temperature outlook for the period October to December 2012 are about 1°C above normal for the northern part of Nordland, Troms and Finnmark. For the rest of Nordland, Trøndelag and the northern most part of both Western and Eastern, suggests forecasted an average of 0.5-1°C above normal. For the southern part of the country are notified at approximately 0.5°C over. Normal as we compare with the average temperature for the period 1961-1990. This period was somewhat cooler than the past few decades have been.

The Beijing Climate Center is going for a warmer than normal winter

But its also showing it to be wetter than normal in some areas

[Iceni]

Can anyone point me in the direction of the latest SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) thread? My bookmark refers to the 2010 one.

PS I find navigating this site is a nightmare. One always has to qualify a key word search under headings in the forum and then wait 200 seconds for the next search. Can't it be simplified?

[Met4Cast]

Can anyone point me in the direction of the latest SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) thread? My bookmark refers to the 2010 one.

PS I find navigating this site is a nightmare. One always has to qualify a key word search under headings in the forum and then wait 200 seconds for the next search. Can't it be simplified?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/

There you go, I think a new thread is going to be started around Mid-October.

[Tim Bland]

Lots of possitive early signals coming through for this winter. The updated pressure annomailes from the Met office are signaling a blocked atlantic

http://www.metoffice...eter_public.png

[Karl83]

Not sure what you all think of Joe laminate floori's weather predictions but I remember him saying before last winter that 2012-13 European Winter could be the start of some harsh winters to come. I'm sure he said that this coming winter in particular was predicted to be harsh, although that was a year ago. I'm stuggling to find the article. Who knows eh? I sure hope he's right!

EDIT: Ha ha, not sure why I cant write Joe's surname but it keeps saving laminate floori instead.

Edited September 14, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Summer Sun]

Not sure what you all think of Joe laminate floori's weather predictions but I remember him saying before last winter that 2012-13 European Winter could be the start of some harsh winters to come. I'm sure he said that this coming winter in particular was predicted to be harsh, although that was a year ago. I'm struggling to find the article. Who knows eh? I sure hope he's right!

EDIT: Ha ha, not sure why I cant write Joe's surname but it keeps saving laminate floori instead.

The swear filter keeps turning bastar-di to laminate floori

[Karl83]

The swear filter keeps turning bastar-di to laminate floori

Ha ha that is funny.

[Staffordshire]

Not sure what you all think of Joe laminate floori's weather predictions but I remember him saying before last winter that 2012-13 European Winter could be the start of some harsh winters to come. I'm sure he said that this coming winter in particular was predicted to be harsh, although that was a year ago. I'm stuggling to find the article. Who knows eh? I sure hope he's right!

EDIT: Ha ha, not sure why I cant write Joe's surname but it keeps saving laminate floori instead.

bas----tard? maybe a swear filter

[cheeky_monkey]

Lots of possitive early signals coming through for this winter. The updated pressure annomailes from the Met office are signaling a blocked atlantic

http://www.metoffice...eter_public.png

that would be brutally cold here in Western Canada...that Alaskan high is equivalent to a big Greenland high back home

[EML Network]

I hope this winter is cold and snowy, the weather for the past 2 years down this way has been the most boring I have ever seen, no extreme weather events of any type, what a big fat pile of doggy doo !

Anything is better than this bland , sunshine and showers, broken cloud rubbish with temperatures between 14-20 , which is how it has been for the past 24 months, bar the odd week here and there in either summer or winter...bring on the snow and ice and cold.

[cheeky_monkey]

I hope this winter is cold and snowy, the weather for the past 2 years down this way has been the most boring I have ever seen, no extreme weather events of any type, what a big fat pile of doggy doo !

Anything is better than this bland , sunshine and showers, broken cloud rubbish with temperatures between 14-20 , which is how it has been for the past 24 months, bar the odd week here and there in either summer or winter...bring on the snow and ice and cold.

what i wouldn't give for a year like that!

[Cloud 10]

I'm not sure NetWeather have predicted freezing conditions for December, Irish Daily Star..

http://thestar.ie/st...till-christmas/

"Temperatures are set to reach 20C today, but Netweather forecaster Stewart Rampling has said snow, ice and sub-zero 
temperatures are all on the way this December"

[syed2878]

joe laminate floori always pridicting a harsh winter every year.

[Chris D]

So, a potentially interesting season ahead then!

[Summer Sun]

I hope this winter is cold and snowy, the weather for the past 2 years down this way has been the most boring I have ever seen, no extreme weather events of any type, what a big fat pile of doggy doo !

Anything is better than this bland , sunshine and showers, broken cloud rubbish with temperatures between 14-20 , which is how it has been for the past 24 months, bar the odd week here and there in either summer or winter...bring on the snow and ice and cold.

Well living that far south you have to be prepared for mild winters at times, its the same for those in Scotland who have to be prepared for heavy snow fall at some point during winter