Winter 2012 / 2013

[The watcher]

It will be interesting to do a poll on what type of Countryfile forecast you want to see this winter

An early Feb 1996 type

Or an early Feb 1998 type

1996 please, but surely we have a more extreme snow forecast than that.

Just to note also, this was the forecast when I was in Primary6 and I was tasked (being the weather enthusiast in my class) to go out and measure the snowfall we had overnight during this spell, a quite sobering 5cms though.

Edited September 15, 2012 by The watcher

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Meh - neither as both showed cloud and rain for my location

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure I'd be keen on a repeat of the second week of February 1998 because warm sunshine didn't establish widely over northern England until the 13th and the weather prior to that was generally mild and muggy- if high pressure had been centred further north and east giving a south to south-westerly airflow it would be a different matter. I would certainly welcome a repeat of the second week of February 2008 at some point during the winter though, with warm sunshine by day and chilly misty nights. As for early February 1996, that would certainly be welcome.

[bluearmy]

Mmmmm............ who do I like better?

Joe Bast*ardi or James Madden...........

There's only one way to find out..........

well one is a pro weather forecaster with a degree in meteorology and one isnt. isnt that an easier way ?

[Gavin Hannah]

I find that no matter who's is delivering a LR forecast, they will usually allow their preferences to influence their report.... just a little. Or a lot in the case of someone like madden. I guess it also comes down to interpretation of synoptics and what the forecaster disseminates from the data at hand.

At the end of the day, it's a guessing game more often that not.

[chionomaniac]

well one is a pro weather forecaster with a degree in meteorology and one isnt. isnt that an easier way ?

That makes not a jot to a lot of people, ba. What is more important is delivering what they want to hear!

[Methuselah]

That makes not a jot to a lot of people, ba. What is more important is delivering what they want to hear!

Hence the attraction with off-the-wall forecasting methods...

[Backtrack]

That makes not a jot to a lot of people, ba. What is more important is delivering what they want to hear!

Which one has the degree?

They are both poor forecasters if you ask me.

[SMU]

Joe is a pro met-

He is a bit sensational but will only really call cold if led to believe so-

He now works for weatherbell with Joe D another pro Met-

S

[Methuselah]

And, as we all know, even professional scientists can be lured by the prospect of making lots of filthy lucre!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I had an exchange of e-mails with Joe B last December and he stated then that winter 11/12 in NW Europe would have core of the cold SE. He called back then that 12/13 would be the start of a series of brutal NH winters and that NW Europe would get a cold winter. He cited the -ve PDO as main factor and the ENSO state coming into play. It seems he remains set with that so there is consistency with him currently and PDO, ENSO, sunspots remain on the track he was using as part of his reasoning.

I think the probablity of a colder winter is fairly good, and the behaviour of the jetstream thus far this year is something that is edging me that way as I do not see a PV dominated westerly winter at all. Time will tell of course.

BFTP

[Backtrack]

Joe is a pro met-

He is a bit sensational but will only really call cold if led to believe so-

He now works for weatherbell with Joe D another pro Met-

S

Cheers Steve.

[Karl83]

I had an exchange of e-mails with Joe B last December and he stated then that winter 11/12 in NW Europe would have core of the cold SE. He called back then that 12/13 would be the start of a series of brutal NH winters and that NW Europe would get a cold winter. He cited the -ve PDO as main factor and the ENSO state coming into play. It seems he remains set with that so there is consistency with him currently and PDO, ENSO, sunspots remain on the track he was using as part of his reasoning.

I think the probablity of a colder winter is fairly good, and the behaviour of the jetstream thus far this year is something that is edging me that way as I do not see a PV dominated westerly winter at all. Time will tell of course.

BFTP

Exactly what I saw. Wish i could find the article he wrote about it but thats pretty much it anyway.

I also remember accuweathers forecast to be pretty much similar. If not spitting image to what Joe B said. At this time, when I had read only Joe's forecast I didn't believe it, but then I read Accuweathers forecast and I started to wonder. So may be the end of October we should look at accuweathers again and see if it ties in with Joe's.

Were they correct?

Here is the link to the full forecast also.

http://www.accuweath...st-europe/56653

Edited September 16, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[CanadaAl]

Hi All,

Fairly new to this forum, has to be said much prefer this one over the Daily Mail one! Anyways, been looking at the CFS 9 Month runs and there seems to be consistant run patterns indicating blocking during the first 2/3rds of november followed by an active jet during december. It does seem that November,January and February are the best months for real cold. Anyone else got ideas?

P.S sorry for getting a bit ahead of myself considering it's only September!

[Summer Sun]

Exactly what I saw. Wish i could find the article he wrote about it but thats pretty much it anyway.

I also remember accuweathers forecast to be pretty much similar. If not spitting image to what Joe B said. At this time, when I had read only Joe's forecast I didn't believe it, but then I read Accuweathers forecast and I started to wonder. So may be the end of October we should look at accuweathers again and see if it ties in with Joe's.

Were they correct?

Here is the link to the full forecast also.

http://www.accuweath...st-europe/56653

First pic was wrong last 2 were right I think for the UK anyway

Edited September 16, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Accuweather have now issued there winter forecast for the US

There UK forecast shouldn't be to far away now

[syed2878]

i would take joe laminate floori's words mor than i would james madden who would forecast snow 12months of the year if he could. By the way has any of u bought his winter forecast? I c his now charging for that trash.g

[SnowObsessor90]

i would take joe laminate floori's words mor than i would james madden who would forecast snow 12months of the year if he could. By the way has any of u bought his winter forecast? I c his now charging for that trash.g

I pity anybody who has or is even thinking about doing so.

[Summer Sun]

i would take Joe laminate floori's words more than i would James madden who would forecast snow 12months of the year if he could. By the way has any of u bought his winter forecast? I see he is now charging for that trash.g

Aye he's been charging for a while now, now way I'd pay another one who's charging now is mark vogan - http://www.markvogan...recast-2012-13/ - £3 per month or £33 for 11 months and have one month free

[SnowObsessor90]

I'm just hoping for a better winter than last year that's all, anything else would be a bonus.

[Dandy]

I'm just hoping for a better winter than last year that's all, anything else would be a bonus.

Could not agree more.

This time of year my hopes of extreme weather types are raised. But, they were dashed somewhat last year.

Still, all to play for and much more for me to learn and understand.....no better place to do that than here :-)

Edited September 16, 2012 by Dandy

[chionomaniac]

Accuweather have now issued there winter forecast for the US

There UK forecast shouldn't be to far away now

I think that this pattern for the US equates to some form of Greenland blocking, so to a certain extent we can gather that the NW of Europe will be similar to the east coast of the US. Perfectly happy with that if it were to occur.

[mountain shadow]

If accuweather are going for well above temperatures in north eastern Canada this would point to high pressure over Greenland, with us on the colder eastern side of the high.

Another cold period like early winter of 2010/11 would be special.

[divadee]

I'm keeping everything crossed for a fantastic snowmageddon winter! I'm still a newbie with the models (and too scared too post my forecasts!) but will still be looking from late October for any patterns emerging.

Bring on the snow!

[chionomaniac]

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but this is another article regarding how the lack of Arctic ice may be beneficial this winter.

http://www.nature.com/news/ice-loss-shifts-arctic-cycles-1.11387

“The impacts will become more apparent in autumn, once the freeze-up is under way and we see how circulation patterns have influenced the geographical distribution of sea ice,†says Judith Curry, a climate researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. But, she adds, “We can probably expect somewhere in the mid/high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to have a snowy and cold winter.â€